Real-time WRF EnKF 36km outer domain/4km nested domain 36km outer domain/4km nested domain D1 (36km) D2 (4km)

Real-time WRF EnKF 3-hr update cycle for both domains (runs 8 times daily) 3-hr update cycle for both domains (runs 8 times daily) Digital filter initialization performed on both domains (reduces noise) Digital filter initialization performed on both domains (reduces noise) Bias removal on 4km domain Bias removal on 4km domain Analysis and hourly forecast output saved on both domains (analysis,1,2,3-hr forecast) Analysis and hourly forecast output saved on both domains (analysis,1,2,3-hr forecast) 80 members on 36km, 42 members on 4km 80 members on 36km, 42 members on 4km

Real-time WRF EnKF ~3000 surface observations available for assimilation on 4-km domain (~75% of all observations after terrain check) ~3000 surface observations available for assimilation on 4-km domain (~75% of all observations after terrain check) ~1500 observations assimilated, ~1500 for verification ~1500 observations assimilated, ~1500 for verification Assimilation of radiosonde, cloud-track wind, and ACARS data still occurs on both domains Assimilation of radiosonde, cloud-track wind, and ACARS data still occurs on both domains 36-km4-km Terrain Height (m)

Real-time WRF EnKF Runtime for full 36km/4km 3-hr cycle: 2:58 Runtime for full 36km/4km 3-hr cycle: 2:58 Improvements in near future (~month): Improvements in near future (~month): 1) Surface background variance inflation 2) Faster processors 3) Reduced latency 3) Real-time graphics on web Analysis and forecast verification with GFS, NAM, RUC, 4km GFS-WRF coming soon! Analysis and forecast verification with GFS, NAM, RUC, 4km GFS-WRF coming soon!

Real-time WRF EnKF Very early results (before bias removal): Very early results (before bias removal): Analysis RMS errors against unassimilated observations: 4km GFS-WRF 4km WRF EnKF 4km GFS-WRF 4km WRF EnKF Sfc Temperature 2.84 K 2.34 K Sfc Wind 2.03 m/s 2.02 m/s As was the case with the 12km runs, bias removal and variance inflation is expected to further improve analyses… As was the case with the 12km runs, bias removal and variance inflation is expected to further improve analyses…

Real-time WRF EnKF Near-surface Windspeed, MSLP 36km Mean4km Mean ANALYSIS

Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Mean4km Mean Near-surface Windspeed, MSLP 01-HR

Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Mean4km Mean Near-surface Windspeed, MSLP 02-HR

Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Mean4km Mean Near-surface Windspeed, MSLP 03-HR

Real-time WRF EnKF 850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds 36km Mean4km Mean ANALYSIS

Real-time WRF EnKF 850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds 36km Mean4km Mean 01-HR

Real-time WRF EnKF 850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds 36km Mean4km Mean 02-HR

Real-time WRF EnKF 850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds 36km Mean4km Mean 03-HR

Real-time WRF EnKF 850-hPa Temperature 36km Spread4km Spread ANALYSIS

Real-time WRF EnKF 850-hPa Temperature 36km Spread4km Spread 01-HR

Real-time WRF EnKF 850-hPa Temperature 36km Spread4km Spread 02-HR

Real-time WRF EnKF 850-hPa Temperature 36km Spread4km Spread 03-HR