July 2010 From “V” to “U” Benjamin Tal. |2|2 Impact of US Stimulus Package and Inventory Changes on US GDP Growth.

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Presentation transcript:

July 2010 From “V” to “U” Benjamin Tal

|2|2 Impact of US Stimulus Package and Inventory Changes on US GDP Growth

|3|3 US Core CPI Slowest in Half Century

|4|4 US Double Dip Recession in Google

|5|5 Probability of Recession

|6|6 Canadian Stimulus Withdrawal a Major Drag

|7|7 OIS Implied BoC Expectations

|8|8 Hikes Will Still Leave Rates Low by Historical Standards

|9|9 Stability Fund Covers Refinancing

| 10 Size of Fiscal Cuts Needed to Stabilize Net Debt-to-GDP Ratio

| 11 China’s Purchasing Index Points to 10% Growth Source: Bloomberg, CIBC

| 12 Chinese Stocks Don’t Always Reflect Economy Source: Bloomberg, CIBC

| 13 Incomes Have Kept Pace With Housing Costs Source: Bloomberg, CIBC

| 14 Little Inflation Outside of Food Source: Bloomberg, CIBC

| 15 Canadian Dollar Rich Relative to Commodities

| 16 Fixed Income Inflows Driving C$ Appreciation: C$ to Average Near Parity Through 2011

| 17 Global Economy to Slow in the Second Half Source: CIBC

| 18 Analysts’ Track Record in Predicting S&P 500 Earnings Source: Thomson Reuters, CIBC

| 19 US Earnings Growth Expectations Have Been Ratcheted Up More Aggressively Than in Canada Source: Thomson Reuters, CIBC

| 20 Capital Intensive Industries Behind Manufacturing Rebound Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, CIBC * Thousand US$ per worker (2004)

| 21 Rising Canadian Equity Market Correlation with Non-US Stocks Source: MSCI/Barra Total Return Index, CIBC

| 22 Canadian Equities More Correlated with Global Stocks in Bad Times Source: MSCI/Barra Total Return Index, CIBC

| 23 Correlation of TSX Sector Returns to World Equities During Periods of Global Underperformance* Source: MSCI/Barra Total Return Index, CIBC

| 24 Correlation of Various Asset Classes with World Equities During Periods of Underperformance* Source: MSCI/Barra Total Return Index, CIBC

| 25 Exposure of Exporting Nations to the Eurozone Source: EuroStat, CIBC

| 26 Canada’s Government Debt Burden the Least Onerous Note: Based on IMF projections

| 27 Government Debt and Per Capita GDP Growth Source: IMF, “Navigating the Fiscal Challenges Ahead”, May Per capita GDP growth, (%/annum), average for subsequent 5 years Initial Gross Debt Level (in % of GDP)

| 28 Canada’s Banks Well Capitalized by International Standards Source: CIBC, IMF

| 29 Projected Growth in Economically Active Population, Source: International Labour Organization

| 30 Canadian Companies Less Leveraged Than US Ones Source: Statistics Canada, Federal Reserve

| 31 Thank You This material was prepared for investment professionals only and is not for public distribution. It is for informational purposes only and is not intended to convey investment, legal, or tax advice. The material and/or its contents may not be reproduced without the express written consent of Renaissance Investments.

| 32 Questions & Answers