Why Energy Matters “ Energy is at the core of virtually every problem facing humanity. We cannot afford to get this wrong. We should be skeptical of optimism.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
The Global Mid-Point of Conventional Hydrocarbon Production Aaron Dunlap PEAK OIL.
Advertisements

Facing the end of fossil fuels. “Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know.” M. King Hubbert.
The Oil Industry: Peak Oil Misperceptions & Realities May 2008 Mark Payton Director, Strategic Planning & Development Mustang Engineering.
WORLD OIL PRICES Barry L. Evans Evans, Frey & Walker ______ SPE Los Angeles Basin Section Meeting, November 8, 2005 Long Beach, CA.
Peak Oil Overview - June ‘08 Gail Tverberg TheOilDrum.com.
Richard Harth, Megan Gershey, Rosalie Morgans, Nisarg Joshi and Joshua Olzinski.
Objectives - Nonrenewable  Describe nonrenewable energy consumption.  Describe the production of energy from oil and natural gas.  Describe nonrenewable.
24 May 2004World Energy Modeling Global Energy Modeling Dick Lawrence Berlin 2004 Photo from Jim Baldauf.
Jun-15 1 PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, RISK MANAGEMENT Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC Roger Bezdek, MISI Robert Wendling, MISI Presentation.
1 POLS 384 Lec. 12 Energy, Environment & Security.
Why Oil Energy Independence May Not Be a Good Idea Dennis Silverman Dept. of Physics and Astronomy U C Irvine October 30,
Today’s Energy Reality: “We Are In A Deep Hole” The information in this presentation is a generalized discussion of certain features of the Lymac Energy.
Oil: Too little, too much, running out?. The “problem” is normally phrased in terms of supply and demand The world (especially Global North) is seriously.
WORLD OIL AND NORTH AMERICAN NATURAL GAS OUTLOOK November 2006.
AGEC/FNR 406 LECTURE 24. “America is addicted to oil” - President George Bush (2006 State of the Union Address) Three reasons for concern: 1. Volatile.
ENERGY: Fossil Fuels Primary and Secondary Energy Sources Oil Production, Economics, and Impacts Coal and Other Fossil Fuels Energy Conservation (use less.
Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 7 Global and US Fossil Fuel Resources: Oil and Natural Gas.
Peak Oil Russell Peck. What Is Peak Oil? ‘Peak Oil’ refers to the point at which worldwide oil production reaches its peak extraction rate and subsequently.
1973 oil crisis: Yom Kippur War 1979 oil crisis: Iranian Revolution 1990 oil crisis: Gulf War.
Energy: The Transition from Depletable to Renewable Resources
International Energy Outlook 2010 With Projections to 2035.
Environmental Science: Toward a Sustainable Future Richard T. Wright Energy from Fossil Fuels PPT by Clark E. Adams Chapter 12.
 Today oil supplies about 40% of the world’s energy and 96% of its transportation energy.  Since the shift to oil, the world has consumed over 875 billion.
Chapter 12 Energy from Fossil Fuels
CHAPTER 16 NONRENEWABLE ENERGY.
There is a great debate going on as to whether we should open more oil drilling off the coasts of the United States. What do you think? 1. We should.
Materials Innovations In An Emerging Hydrogen Economy February 24 th, 2008 Title: Global Perspectives Towards the Establishment of the Hydrogen Economy.
ENERGY: SUPPLY AND DEMAND Dr. Ron Lembke. US Energy “Sankey” Diagram.
Climate Change and Fossil Fuels Will running out of oil help mitigate global warming? WSU March 1, 2007 Dr. Robert Brecha Physics Dept., Univ. of Dayton.
Materials Innovations In An Emerging Hydrogen Economy February 24 th, 2008 Title: Introduction of the Hydrogen Economy in Emerging Markets Jose Ignacio.
An Introduction to Energy. Why do we care? 1. Fossil fuels are finite a fuel (as coal, oil, or natural gas) formed in the earth from plant or animal.
Chapter 15 Natural Resource and Energy Economics McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Depletion of Energy in the World and Alternative Forms of Energy.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 21 The Economics of Energy, The Environment, and Global.
ECONOMICS OF OIL March 3, 2015.
Hubbert Curve By Kathleen Montz, Seth Johnston, Christopher Kemple.
1 Olve Torvanger Einar H. Bandlien Svein E. Johansen.
Environmental Science: Toward a Sustainable Future Richard T. Wright
PowerPoint ® Lecture prepared by Gary A. Beluzo FOSSIL FUELS The Lifeblood of the Global Economy 20.
Significance of Oil and Natural Gas Jay and Carl Williberg.
Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis Energy & Transportation Science Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Transportation’s.
Climate Change and Fossil Fuels Will running out of oil help mitigate global warming?
Exploiting Crude Oil 12.2a. Dependency on Foreign Oil The U.S. depends on foreign sources for over 60% of its crude oil. Dependency is increasing Consequences:
WORLD ENERGY PICTURE. Figure 1 World Energy Consumption Projections indicate continued growth in world energy use, despite world oil prices that are.
Hubbert Curve Group 1 Jessica Baker, Kathryn Sausser, Brian Nguyen.
Supply. Where will we obtain the oil that we need?
Consider the Future of Crude Oil  Petroleum will not be available forever.  A post-carbon energy economy will not happen overnight.  Transitions from.
Energy. V. Energy Resources and Consumption (10-15%) Energy Concepts (Energy forms; power; units; conversions; Laws of Thermodynamics) Energy Consumption.
Cost of Oil: 1861 to Present. Natural Gas Prices.
The End of Cheap Oil? CSCI 1210 Fall Oil prices: past and future Oil is the single most critical resource of today's economy. Sudden oil price rises.
Peak oil Cameron Dunn. Peak oil What is peak oil? Peak oil refers to the point in time when crude oil production reaches its maximum level. After peak.
Alternatives to Oil What can we do? Dr. Robert J. Brecha Physics Dept. INSS Workshop - April 28, 2006.
Peak Oil Overview - March ‘08 Gail Tverberg TheOilDrum.com.
Sean Goldrick Paper Reviewed: World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA Report Topic: Energy/Climate Change.
Got Oil? World Oil Production : The world consumes 85 million barrels per day 31 Billion Barrels per year! USA (5% of the world’s population) consumes.
POLS 333 Lec 81 The Oil We Eat. POLS 333 Lec 8 2 Black Gold  Versatile, convenient, cheap & powerful  3 spoonfuls = 8 hours manual labor 20 gallons.
Recommissioning cancer services for a credit-crunched, energy-crunched, climate-crunched world Dr Angela E Raffle, Consultant in Public Health NHS Bristol.
U.S. Ambassador’s Speakers Series Rio de Janeiro 10 March 2016 Geopolitics of Energy: Where do we go from here? Edward C. Chow Senior Fellow.
ENERGY: SUPPLY AND DEMAND Dr. Ron Lembke. International Energy Outlook, 2011, US Energy Information Admistration, eia.gov.
Evaluation of Crude Oil Production Forecast Studies Using Statistical Analysis June, Shinichirou Morimoto National Institute of Advanced Industrial.
The role of oil and gas companies in global climate policies
Current Power and Energy Landscape
Day 2: Natural Gas and Oil
The end of the era of cheap oil A decisive factor in Climate Change
Question 3 - What might the world’s energy future be?
Peak Oil Overview - June ‘08
ENERGY: Fossil Fuels Primary and Secondary Energy Sources
Washington, September 24, 2018 USAEE Conference
The Future of World Oil Prices: Some Keys to the Puzzle
Presentation transcript:

Why Energy Matters “ Energy is at the core of virtually every problem facing humanity. We cannot afford to get this wrong. We should be skeptical of optimism that the existing energy industry will be able to work this out on its own.” Dr. Richard E. Smalley, Director of the Carbon Nanotechnology Laboratory, to the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources

Is There an Energy Problem Why is it so hard to communicate the Peak Oil message? The Boy Who Cried Wolf … “we’ve heard that before” “They’re always finding more oil!” (true, but …) Reserves/production = “40 years, at present rate of use” Acknowledging Peak Oil is only the first step toward understanding the problem: “Market forces will ensure adequate energy for everyone – when prices go up, people will find alternatives!” (free-market theory) “But we’ve got 40 years for science and technology to come through with something!”

Huge Disagreement! OPEC USA ROW-Russia World URR According to ASPO URR According to USGS, IEA, … URR = ~2 Trillion Bbl 1+ Trillion Remaining URR = 3 Trillion Bbl 2+ Trillion Remaining Energy Future According to ASPOEnergy Future According to USGS How can something this important have so much uncertainty? (+/-100%!)

1) No Agreement on Crude Oil URR Unreliable, missing, or unbelievable reserve numbers Variable estimates for “reserve growth” applied at global level How much “Yet to Be Discovered” exists? Disagreement on impact of new technology Uncertainty re. relation of price to exploration, discovery, and extraction rates Wildly-varying estimates for future production rates and URR for tar sands, Venezuela heavy, shale oil

2) More Reasons for Confusion and Complacency For every Fossil-Fuel alarmist, there is another expert saying “No problem” Opinions run the gamut: Utopian scenarios of fusion-enabled hydrogen- fueled industry, transport, and agriculture Magical reversion to 18 th -century way of life Cataclysmic scenarios of war, starvation, death Without science or numbers behind them, all opinions are equally valid

Oil Demand Exceeding Expectations Population – world population projected to continue rising past 2050 or later (9-10 B) Industrial development – China’s oil imports rose 30+% in 2003, surpassing Japan; India and rest of SE Asia also exploding demand Middle-class aspirations in China, India Although losing industry, N American demand continues to rise – transport, electricity, gas Rest of world coming out of recession – EIA repeatedly raising estimates of demand

Agriculture Agriculture was once very labor-intensive in human and animal power; what will substitute for fossil fuels now that we number 6.4 billion (heading for 9 to 10 billion) ? US horse population peaked in 1915 at 25 million; 20% of all arable US land was used to feed horses. US humans numbered 100 million. In 2015, expect 300M people. There is no model for feeding 9 billion people without fossil fuel!

The Big Picture – Oil Production over History OPEC USA ROW-Russia World M bbl/day ?

Understanding Net Energy All energy sources require up-front investment in energy, as well as $ capital and human effort, to yield a return on that investment NET ENERGY: Energy Returned on Energy Invested = ERoEI Some investments are better than others Some investments are energy losers! How can we know which ones to invest in?

History and Future of Oil Supply Oil & NGL’s, from ASPO You are here

Supply-Demand Mismatch No near-term substitute for oil The Hubbert Peak

History of the Hubbert Peak In 1956, Shell geologist Dr Marion King Hubbert predicted that US domestic oil production would peak in the early 1970s and then begin an irreversible decline. Hubbert's prediction was the subject of water- cooler confabs in every oil company office in the US and - because US production was growing exponentially at the time - it was laughed off. Hubbert was fired. 15 years later (1971), US oil production peaked and began an irreversible decline. The phenomenon is now called “Hubbert's Peak”

The 1973 “Arab Oil Embargo” tripled the price of oil. Since the US couldn’t supply its own oil demand anymore, the US intensified its search for oil, and there was serious effort at conservation (smaller cars, 55mph limit, CAFE). In 1979 there was a real “Oil Shock” (the Iranian Revolution) and another in 1980 (the Iran-Iraq War). As new oil fields discovered in the 1970s came online, prices fell to $10/barrel by Concerns about limited supply were dead. By 2004, 50% of vehicles sold were “light” trucks and SUVs. But U.S. production never regained 1971 levels.

The global rate of oil production must peak out and then start to decline.

Projected World Oil Consumption By Region

Oil Transited at Major Strategic Locations, 2004

Strait of Hormuz

24 May 2004World Energy Modeling