Challenge in Teaching Forecasting Don’t fabricate “real” data Only your instructor can do that!

Forecasting Terminology Initialization ExPost Forecast Historical Data No Historical Data

Goals for New Forecasting Material  Have students to understand purpose—predict future  Have students to look at data to evaluate models  Have students understand models by practicing forecasting on different sets of data

Method  ABAP Program to create consumption data

Method  ABAP Program creates 3 years of monthly consumption data with the following instructor options: 3 trend values 12 seasonal factors Random variation Outlier point

Consumption Values Normally, consumption values can only be entered once, because the R/3 system updates them automatically each time a sale is made

Forecasting Exercises  A basic forecasting exercise is available now with a basic ABAP program that loads one set of data  The flexible ABAP program is under development Designed for interactive lab or on-going forecasting practice  Powerpoints, Excel Exercises, Practice problems and Sample exams will be included We should still teach formulas We should still teach how to program formulas in Excel But, with ERP Technology, we can have students MAKE forecasts