Satellite-based Global Estimate of Ground-level Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations Aaron van Donkelaar1, Randall Martin1,2, Lok Lamsal1, Chulkyu Lee1.

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Satellite-based Global Estimate of Ground-level Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations Aaron van Donkelaar1, Randall Martin1,2, Lok Lamsal1, Chulkyu Lee1 and Xiong Liu3 Atmospheric Composition Constellation June 2009 1Dalhousie University 2Harvard-Smithsonian 3NASA Goddard

Approach Estimated PM2.5 = η· τ η We relate satellite-based measurements of aerosol optical depth to PM2.5 using a global chemical transport model Following Liu et al., 2004: Estimated PM2.5 = η· τ Combined MODIS/MISR Aerosol Optical Depth vertical structure aerosol type meteorological effects meteorology diurnal effects η GEOS-Chem

MODIS and MISR τ τ [unitless] MODIS τ MISR τ MODIS MISR Mean τ 2001-2006 at 0.1º x 0.1º MODIS τ 1-2 days for global coverage Requires assumptions about surface reflectivity MODIS r = 0.40 vs. in-situ PM2.5 MISR τ 6-9 days for global coverage Simultaneous surface reflectance and aerosol retrieval MISR r = 0.54 vs. in-situ PM2.5 τ [unitless] 0 0.1 0.2 0.3

Combining MODIS and MISR improves agreement 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 Combined MODIS/MISR r = 0.63 (vs. in-situ PM2.5) τ [unitless] MODIS r = 0.40 (vs. in-situ PM2.5) MISR r = 0.54 (vs. in-situ PM2.5)

Global CTMs can directly relate PM2.5 to τ η [ug/m] Detailed aerosol-oxidant model 2º x 2.5º 54 tracers, 100’s reactions Assimilated meteorology Year-specific emissions Dust, sea salt, sulfate-ammonium-nitrate system, organic carbon, black carbon, SOA GEOS-Chem

Significant agreement with coincident ground measurements over NA MODIS τ 0.40 MISR τ 0.54 Combined τ 0.63 Combined PM2.5 0.78 Annual Mean PM2.5 [μg/m3] (2001-2006) Satellite Derived Satellite-Derived [μg/m3] In-situ In-situ PM2.5 [μg/m3]

Method is globally applicable Annual mean measurements Outside Canada/US 297 sites (107 non-EU) r = 0.75 (0.76) slope = 0.89 (0.96) bias = 0.52 (-2.76) μg/m3

Insight into Aerosol Sources/Type with Precursor Observations OMI SO2 Retrieved with Local Air Mass Factor Improves Agreement of OMI SO2 versus Aircraft Observations (INTEX A & B) Orig: slope = 1.6, r=0.71 New: slope = 0.95, r=0.92 Lee et al., JGR, submitted

Coincident PM2.5 error has two sources Estimated PM2.5 = η· τ Model Affected by aerosol optical properties, concentrations, vertical profile, relative humidity Most sensitive to vertical profile [van Donkelaar et al., 2006] Satellite Error limited to 0.1 + 20% by AERONET filter Implication for satellite PM2.5 determined by η

CALIPSO allows profile evaluation Model (GC) CALIPSO (CAL) Altitude [km] CALIPSO allows profile evaluation Coincidently sample model and CALIPSO extinction profiles Jun-Dec 2006 Compare % within boundary layer Optical Depth from TOA Optical Depth at surface τ(z)/τsurface

Potential for profile and τ bias define error Satellite-Derived PM2.5 [μg/m3] Vary satellite-derived PM2.5 by profile and τ biases 99.8% within ±(5 μg/m3 + 25%) of original value Contains 98.0% of NA data In-situ PM2.5 [μg/m3] Potential Bias [%]

Satellite-Derived PM2.5 [μg/m3]

Satellite-Derived PM2.5 [μg/m3]

Satellite-Derived PM2.5 [μg/m3]

High global impact of PM2.5 Loss in Expected Lifetime [years] Using 0.61±0.20 years lost per 10 μg/m3 [Pope et al., 2009] Satellite-PM2.5 + population map + lost-life relationship → Global estimate of decreased life expectancy due to PM2.5 exposure 10% of eastern North Americans lose ~1 of life expectancy from PM2.5 40% of eastern Asia exposed to > 40 μg/m3 Population [%] PM2.5 Exposure [μg/m3]

Significant Spatial Correlation in Satellite-derived and In-Situ AQHI (OMI-derived NO2 and O3, MODIS/MISR-derived PM2.5) Combined effect from numerous species → Use Canadian AQHI (Stieb et al., JAWMA, 2008) AQHI ≈ 0.09 x NO2 (ppbv) + 0.05 x PM2.5 (μ/m3) + 0.05 x O3 (ppbv) AQHI ≈ Excess Mortality Risk (%) Mean values over June – August 2005 for North America Satellite-derived AQHI In Site AQHI AQHI

Summary Satellite-derived PM2.5 asset to global air quality monitoring Quantifiable Error Coincident: ±(5 μg/m3 + 25%) Sampling: ±(2 μg/m3 + 10%) Potential for health studies Combined with satellite NO2 and O3

Additional Slides

Evaluate Monthly Mean Satellite τ with AERONET by Region Regions Determined with MODIS Albedo Ratios Reject Retrievals for Regions with Error > 0.1 or 20% May albedo ratios

Sampling frequency varies with region Potential loss of representativeness relative to annual mean

Sampling error is regional Compare continuous and coincident model results Plot sampling-induced error in excess of ±2 μg/m3 Sampling Error [%] Sampling-Induced Error = Annual PM2.5 – Coincident PM2.5 ± 2 μg/m3 Annual PM2.5

In-situ agrees better with satellite-derived PM2.5 0.1ºx0.1º r = 0.75 (0.76) slope = 0.89 (0.96) bias = 0.55 (-2.76) μg/m3 Satellite-Derived 2ºx2.5º r = 0.69 (0.71) slope = 0.58 (0.64) bias = 4.53 (1.60) μg/m3 GEOS-Chem 2ºx2.5º r = 0.52 (0.62) slope = 0.52 (0.56) bias = 8.09 (3.05) μg/m3 Annual mean measurements 298 sites (108 non-EU)