ENFA Model ENFA Kick-off Meeting Hamburg, 10 May 2005.

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Presentation transcript:

ENFA Model ENFA Kick-off Meeting Hamburg, 10 May 2005

ENFA Model Simulates land use decisions in the EU agricultural and forest sectors Represents markets and computes market equilibrium Portrays trade on a global level Accounts for environmental impacts of land use decisions Spatially explicit, dynamic

Food Non-Food Biodiversity Land use competition

ENFA Model Structure Resources Land Use Technologies Processing Technologies ProductsMarkets Inputs Limits Supply Functions Limits Demand Functions, Trade

ENFA Optimization Model determines the "optimal" use to which each individual technology should be used in each region and time period Maximize welfare Obey restrictions Product prices are endogenous

ENFA Spatial Resolution Political regions (NUTS 2) Soil types Farm types Altitude levels Slopes

ENFA Dynamics 5 to 10 year steps from 2005 to 2030 (2100?) Technical progress Demand & industry growth Resource change Policy scenarios

Data Resource data –Climate, Soil, Water, Existing Forests, Population, Labor Technological data –Inputs / outputs for crop, livestock, forest management, and product processing and transportation options Market data –Observed prices, production, trade, and income levels –Supply Demand function parameters Environmental impact data –Emissions, Sequestration, Erosion, Biodiversity

ENFA Technologies Traditional agriculture –major crops –major livestock Forestry Non-food agriculture Processing (Wildlife preservation)

Non-market Impacts Greenhouse gas emissions Air, water, soil quality Income distribution Rural development / employment Wildlife

Simultaneity Technologies Non-Market Impacts Current and Potential Policies … resource competition … multiple impacts

Crop Technology Data Base RegionAltitudSoilFarmRotationWaterTillageFertilzResidueItemUnitValue Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.Basic Wheatdt/ha/y50 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.Basic S-Beatdt/ha/y200 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.Basic Strawdt/ha/y50 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.Basic Laborhr/ha/y30 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.Basic Landha/ha/y1 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.Basic Diesell/ha/y40 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.Basic... Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.Basic Soil-Ckg/ha/y50 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.Basic Erosionkg/ha/y15 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.Basic NO3-Lkg/ha/y20

Technology Adoption Non-Market Impacts OutputsInputs

Consistency Representative yields not maximum yields on experimental plots Representative input quantities on labor and energy intensive inputs Representative and complete variable costs on remaining inputs Environmental Impacts (from EPIC)

Technical Details Programmed in GAMS Non-linear functions are linearly approximated Solved with CPLEX Variables and equations are aggregated to blocks

Constrained Optimization

Objective Function

Resource Limits Limits exist on Land Water Family labor Public grazing land

Balance Equations

International Trade

Emission Accounts

Basic Results

Technology Potentials Measures of potential –Technical –Economic single strategy multiple strategy

U.S. Ag-Soil Carbon Potentials Carbon price ($/tce) Soil carbon sequestration (mmtce) Technical Potential Economic Potential Competitive Economic Potential

U.S. Afforestation Potentials Carbon price ($/tce) Emission reduction (mmtce) Technical Potential Economic Potential Competitive Economic Potential

U.S. Biofuel Potentials Carbon price ($/tce) Emission reduction (mmtce) Technical Potential Economic Potential Competitive Economic Potential

Land Allocation Carbon Tax Pasture Traditional Crops Biomass for Power Plants Afforestation

Energy Crop Area Subsidy Bioenergy use None 2010 Limit 2030 Limit 2050 Limit Unrestricted

A Simple Example

Constant Corn Price

Endogenous Corn Price (1.80)25 (1.98)50 (2.16)100 (2.88) Carbon Price in $/tce (Corn price in $/bu) Revenue in $/Acre Rainfed CornIrrigated CornBiofuel