Sensemaking Capability Development A FRAME FOR DEVELOPING SENSEMAKING CAPABILITIES & ACHIEVING THE COGNITIVE EDGE

Sensemaking Capbilities People, processes and systems to exploit information - under conditions of complexity, uncertainty, and time pressure - for awareness, understanding, planning and to make faster and better decisions against an adaptive adversary

S ystematically create a widespread and persistent Cognitive Edge for the SAF Create Sustainable Advantage –Not easily replicated –No COTS option –Leveraged on our HR advantage Use Cognitive Asymmetry as a strategy –Relative superiority in decision making From “Sensemaking: A Cognitive Edge And A Sustainable Advantage For The SAF” Why Develop Sensemaking Capabilities?

Sensemaking - Faster and Better Decisions Not just …….. Better weak pattern recognition More Hubbing More Collaboration More Decentralization More Self-synchronization More information online Better and faster common operating picture ………………. Etc. Everything is relevant! What’s the problem? All this and more!!

Better and faster decisions? The Quality of Decisions is a function of Quality of collected information Quality of knowledge base Quality of Sensemaking Time needed for Sensemaking Adversary’s actions QoD = f (I c, K,, ) Knowledge Base = f (Experience, Exposure) Information collected = f(No. & QofSensors)

Developments that : Dramatically improve the quality of Sensemaking and/or Reduce the time needed for Sensemaking Sensemaking capability development? QoD = f (I c, K,, )

Sensemaking Breakdown? Tipping Point QoD = f (I c, K,, ) Important Correlation Ic Volume of Quality Information Collected Quality of Sensemaking QoS Information Overload IKC2 becomes ineffective if we do not Sensemake well! Waddington’s Survey on Info Overload (96): Loss of job satisfaction Tension with colleagues Poor health due to stress  43% increase in snr management 63% admit personal relation- ships suffer

Doctrine Demonstrators Developing Sensemaking Capabilities Valid areas to define Problems and validate Solutions Organization Processes C2 Systems and technology Training Personnel/team Selection ……. Etc. Experiments

The Last Nanometer… Cognitive Psychology Cognitive neuroscience Behaviours Attempt to explain Mind Activities Linguistics / Communication Theory/ Social Psychology Other Users relate Cognitive Domain Social Domain Pattern Recognition Memory Perception Attention Representation of Knowledge Language Imagery Thinking and Concept Formation Consciousness How C2 Systems, Organization, Processes could amplify Sensemaking?

Command & Control Edge Cognitive Edge Outcome….. Sensemaking capability would translate into superior C2 systems Data Understanding/ Knowledge Sensemaking Capabilities C2/ Action Optioning/ Planning

Achieving the Sensemaking Capability

- Guide the development of a suite of Sensemaking capability Aid the analysis of Sensemaking problems Aid the synthesis of Sensemaking solutions Objectives FRAMING SENSEMAKING DEVELOPMENT

THE SENSEMAKING FRAME Divided into three parts: - Sensemaking Problem Space - Desired Outcomes - Concepts for experimentation and application

SENSEMAKING Problem Space

Environment Organisation Team Team process losses Individual Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Skewed Decision Making Compartmentalised Knowledge Insensitivity to Weak Signals Structured for Known/Knowable World Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Complexity Time Pressure Adaptive Adversary Problem Space Key Sensemaking Problems Uncertainty 1. Cognitive Limitation a.Perception Threshold Limitation b.Attention Limitation c.Memory Limitation 2. Physical Limitation a.Physiological States b.Human emotion 3. Naturalistic Biases a.Confirmation Bias b.Halo, Primacy and Recency effects Individual

1. Skewed decision making in teams a. Groupthink b. Group Risk Taking 2. Team Process Losses a.Communication losses b.Team memory Team Environment Organisation Team Team process losses Individual Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Skewed Decision Making Compartmentalised Knowledge Insensitivity to Weak Signals Structured for Known/Knowable World Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Complexity Time Pressure Adaptive Adversary Problem Space Key Sensemaking Problems Uncertainty

1. Structured for known/knowable world 2. Insensitivity to weak signals 3. Compartmentalization of knowledge Organization Environment Organisation Team Team process losses Individual Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Skewed Decision Making Compartmentalised Knowledge Insensitivity to Weak Signals Structured for Known/Knowable World Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Complexity Time Pressure Adaptive Adversary Problem Space Key Sensemaking Problems Uncertainty

ENVIRONMENT 1. Uncertainty Operations on-the-fly Lack of information 4. Complexity More players (NGO, other ministries, etc) More systems 3. Time pressure Faster Tempo Greater Mobility 2. Adaptive Adversary T3 Military adversaries always asymmetric Environment Organisation Team Team process losses Individual Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Skewed Decision Making Compartmentalised Knowledge Insensitivity to Weak Signals Structured for Known/Knowable World Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Complexity Time Pressure Adaptive Adversary Problem Space Key Sensemaking Problems Uncertainty

15 Solution Spaces 6 Desired Outcomes