Microsimulation in Canada: Lessons from Statistics Canada Chantal Hicks British Society for Population Studies University of Sussex, September 11, 2009

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 2 Note  Opinions represented in this paper represents my views and are not the views of Statistics Canada  More emphasis on the models with which I’ve been involved

Microsimulation in the Government of Canada

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 4 Microsimulation in the rest of Government of Canada  Human Resources and Skills Development Canada Static tax/transfer model (SIMTAB) Dynamic pension model (DYNACAN). Funding ended June 2009 Employment Insurance model  Department of Finance Static tax/transfer model (TTSIM) Corporate tax model  Health Canada and Public Health Agency of Canada Pharmacare model Human resource models First Nation model Pandemic Flu model

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 5 Overlap exists  At least 3 models which calculate taxes and transfers starting from the same public use survey (Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics)

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 6 Modeling at Statistics Canada Done by Four Groups  Modeling Division Modelling technologies Socio-economic models Infectious disease models  Health Analysis Division Health and disease models  Demography Division Demographic projection models  Human Resources Development Division Personnel models

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 7 POHEM (Modgen) Major* Microsimulation events at Statistics Canada SPSD/M conceived Michael Wolfson Arrives DEMOSIM POHEM (APL) FADEP SPSD/M Public release CaremodLifePathsHIVMM CVMM IDMM XECON PopModM RiskPaths Modgen PERSIM

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 8 Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M)  First model developed at Statistics Canada  Static tax/transfer model  Synthetic database which combines survey and administrative data  Model written in C  Visual Basic front end released in 2006

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 9 Major* Microsimulation events at Statistics Canada SPSD/M conceived Michael Wolfson Arrives SPSD/M Public release Visual SPSM

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 10 FADEP ( Family and Demographic Projections)  Part of CEPHID ( Canada‘s Elderly Population: Health, Income & Demography) Hybrid Static & Dynamic models  Dynamic model of projection of family structure  Closed population  Written in C++

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 11 Major* Microsimulation events at Statistics Canada SPSD/M conceived Michael Wolfson Arrives FADEP SPSD/M Public release

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 12 POHEM (Population Health Model)  Longitudinal model of health and disease  Cohort model  Comparison of competing health interventions  Multiple versions Some use synthetic data and some microdata  First version written in APL

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 13 Major* Microsimulation events at Statistics Canada SPSD/M conceived Michael Wolfson Arrives POHEM (APL) FADEP SPSD/M Public release

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 14 Lessons Learned by 1993  Dynamic models were hard to maintain and to modify  Coding of models was time consuming and error prone  Flexible/modular design essential  Writing to disk during simulations slows speed significantly  Closed dynamic models make high demands on memory and/or have significant sampling variability

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 15 Modgen  Generic tool to create dynamic microsimulation models  C++ compiler pre-processor  Features Event queue GUI Derived states Tables and microdata output (tabulation is on-the-fly) Continuous or discrete time Calculating Monte Carlo variability Multilingual cross-referenced documentation

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 16 POHEM (Modgen) Major* Microsimulation events at Statistics Canada SPSD/M conceived Michael Wolfson Arrives POHEM (APL) FADEP SPSD/M Public release Modgen

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 17 LifePaths  Dynamic model of individuals and families designed to analyse government programs  Overlapping cohort model  Full cross-sectional population by 1972  Some of the main research areas: student loans, pension policy, time allocation, intergenerational issues  Written in Modgen

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 18 POHEM (Modgen) Major* Microsimulation events at Statistics Canada SPSD/M conceived Michael Wolfson Arrives POHEM (APL) FADEP SPSD/M Public release LifePaths Modgen

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 19 DEMOSIM (aka PopSIm)  Demographic projection model  Projects population by visible minority status  Starts by reading in the entire 2006 census (20% of Canada’s population)  Written in Modgen

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 20 POHEM (Modgen) Major* Microsimulation events at Statistics Canada SPSD/M conceived Michael Wolfson Arrives DEMOSIM POHEM (APL) FADEP SPSD/M Public release LifePaths Modgen

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 21 CAREMOD  New model focusing on cost-effectiveness of cancer treatments and prevention  Based on POHEM  Very short turnaround time – contract from Canadian Partnership Against Cancer  Part of contract is to put model on the web Generic technology being built which can be used for all Modgen models

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 22 POHEM (Modgen) Major* Microsimulation events at Statistics Canada SPSD/M conceived Michael Wolfson Arrives DEMOSIM POHEM (APL) FADEP SPSD/M Public release CaremodLifePaths Modgen

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 23 PERSIM  Model designed to look at personnel needs for government departments  Written in Visual Basic  Prototype in Modgen created in 2008  Funding sought to migrate it to Modgen

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 24 POHEM (Modgen) Major* Microsimulation events at Statistics Canada SPSD/M conceived Michael Wolfson Arrives DEMOSIM POHEM (APL) FADEP SPSD/M Public release CaremodLifePaths PERSIM Modgen prototype Modgen PERSIM

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 25 POHEM (Modgen) Major* Microsimulation events at Statistics Canada SPSD/M conceived Michael Wolfson Arrives DEMOSIM POHEM (APL) FADEP SPSD/M Public release CaremodLifePathsHIVMM CVMM IDMM XECON PopModM RiskPaths Modgen PERSIM

Key Issues

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 27 Funding  Different projects have used different funding mechanisms at different times  Core funding is available at Statistics Canada

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 28 Main sources of funding Core FundingContractsSales to clients SPSD/MXX POHEMXX LifePathsXX DEMOSIMX PERSIMXX ModgenXX Much development included in other projects Pohem funded creation WHO project funded improvements to interacting population CAREMOD funding web interface HRSD major source of funding GAPS has provided funding in recent years – ending in 2010 Core funding critical – clients unable to pay full cost

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 29 Who uses the models  Some models solely used by Statistics Canada for research at Statistics Canada  Others are used by the public  Most models are run by Statistics Canada for projects funded by external users

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 30 Public availability Released to public Not yet released SPSD/MX POHEMX* LifePathsX* DEMOSIMX* PERSIMX ModgenX CAREMOD will be publicly available Plan to have public version of DEMOSIM in 2010 – data may still be confidential Personnel data confidential Only selected outputs

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 31 Major users External users Statistics Canada in partnership with clients Statistics Canada SPSD/MXXX POHEMXX LifePathsXXX DEMOSIMXX PERSIMXX ModgenXXX Only model where external users represent majority Few external users Policy analysis not in mandate Number of external users increasing

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 32 Staffing  Different groups have used different mix of personnel throughout the years  Use of single resource to do the programming has been a key difference

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 33 Staff mix One person programs the model Multiple people program the model SPSD/MX POHEMXX LifePathsX DEMOSIMXX

10 Lessons gleamed from 25 years of experience

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 35 Lesson 1: Have strong leadership  Michael Wolfson led microsimulation at Statistics Canada  Steve Gribble designed SPSD/M and Modgen  Geoff Rowe spearheaded research and equation estimation  All were there from the start in 1984 = 25 years

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 36 Lesson 2: Hire and keep the best team  Takes time to learn microsimulation, best if personnel can stay for numerous years  Easier to do if team is big enough to allow for the possibility of working on new projects  Multiple projects using the same technologies makes this much easier to do  Modgen means that analysts as opposed to programmers can develop and maintain the models

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 37 Lesson 3: Invest in technology  Modgen led to rapid development of new models  Fast creation of prototypes one of the methods used to develop new markets  Common language means a more flexible team  Programming the model should take less time that analyzing the data that goes into the model

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 38 Lesson 4: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it  SPSD/M predates Modgen  Written in C and has had no major overhaul in >20 years  Survived: Changes in operating systems Frequent updates (~2x year) External users from across the country  Visual interface was created 2006

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 39 Lesson 5: Survive through lean times  Policy needs ebb and flow  Core funding important  Diverse client base can cushion the blow  Loyal clients can save the day

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 40 Lesson 6: Use “Strategic Opportunism”*  Technologies like MODGEN makes rapid prototyping simple data analysis takes the time  Complex models take time to build  Building on existing models makes sense CareMod built on POHEM LifePaths used to study pension reform * copyright Steve Gribble

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 41 Lesson 7: Complexity has a cost  Complex models, like LifePaths, are hard to keep up to date and have a large overhead  Can be hard to understand what is causing change  Hard to attract users

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 42 Lesson 8: Simplicity not always the answer  Simple models may not be able to answer the policy questions of the day  SPSD/M and Employment Insurance SPSD/M has a certain amount of Employment Insurance history built into it Designed at a time when the policy question was contraction Current policy questions have to do with expansion: model cannot answer these questions

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 43 Lesson 9: Links to clients and external groups essential  POHEM and SPSD/M, PERSIM and DEMOSIM team have strong links to external clients Some important gaps remain  LifePaths has struggled on and off through the years to find significant external interest  Ties with the microsimulation community of Ottawa haven’t always been strong New seminar series is trying to build a community Try to keep people working in microsimulation modeling

September 11, 2009 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 44 Lesson 10: Pick good names  Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M) Or in French  Base de données et modèle de simulation de politiques sociales (BD/MSPS)

Thank you!