Columbia University Center for Hazards and Risk Research Overview CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop October 25-26, 2001

CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop2 Center for Hazards and Risk Research l Organized April 2001 l Part of Columbia Earth Institute l Based at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory l Partners include The Wharton School, Bogazici University, London School of Economics, others.

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop3 Organizing Themes for Hazard and Risk Studies l Science in service of Sustainable International Development –Reducing Vulnerability / Building Resiliency –Methods and Mechanisms of Risk Assessment and Risk Management –Technological and social measures of risk l Multiple Hazards, Aggregate Risk –Interactions, triggers, and amplification l Human activities that generate risk

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop4 Organizing Themes for Hazard and Risk Studies (cont.) l Community Knowledge System –Assessments of Predictive Skill in S&T –Assessment and communication of risk –Assessment and communication of uncertainty –Understanding decision strategies and mechanisms, and their inputs and outcomes –Feedbacks for integrated studies –Appropriate use of technology

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop5 What Is the relationship between “Hazard” and “Risk”? l “Hazard” is a process which has potential human impacts. l “Risk” is a function of both “hazard” and accumulated human assets. l “Concentration of assets” contributes to quantitative measures of risk. Source: USGS, CIESIN

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop6 Risk is a Cultural Quantity l Different societies have different asset exposures l System effects can amplify the evaluation of risk l The study of risk mixes hazards (physical science) and vulnerability (engineering, social science)

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop7 Technical Risk vs. Social Risk l Asset census and Asset fragility l Integration over many scales l Complexities due to interdependencies not included l Not normative l Measured in replacement and repair costs (or loss of use) l Useful for cost-benefit analysis l Risk transference as an economic cost l Measures social and cultural disruptions l Measured in risk tolerance in relation to a self-defined state of well being l Highly normative l Social and cultural interdependencies critical l Useful for choice analysis l Issues of risk transference harder to quantify, and hinge on moral arguments

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop8 Prediction and Predictability l New science is available to improve predictability of events and their impacts l New science is both empirical and model- based

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop9 Stress ‘climate’ is a manifestation of plate tectonics, but simple models of deformation are surprisingly good at predicting seismicity. (source: J. Deng, Ph.D. Thesis 1996, Columbia)

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop10 Research Model Basic Research Basic Research Integrated Research Integrated Research Physical Science/Engineering Social Science Extension/ Applications Extension/ Applications Risk Assessment Risk Management

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop11 Source: K. Boyer

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop12 Illustration: K. Boyer

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop13 Center Programmatic Components l Basic Disciplinary Research l Integrated Research l Research Extension l Training Extension l Graduate and Other Formal Education

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop14 Improving Resilience l Emergency Response l Hardening Built Environment l Hardening Social Constructs –Political –Economic –Cultural l Alternative Development Paths –Responsible Planning –Altered States

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop15 Single Hazard Model Hazard Impact Risk Action Knowledge areas incomplete, research required

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop16 Single Hazard Model Earthquake Process Model Fracture Mechanics Tectonic Stress Model Fault Topology Anelastic structure Near-surface structure Event Genesis Wave Propagation Model

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop17 Single Hazard Model Impact Process Model (Built Environment) Ground Motion Structural Design Soil-Structure Interactions Structure Dynamics Primary and Secondary System Response

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop18 Single Hazard Model Risk and Risk Perception Categorization Tolerance Levels Asset Concentrations (space and time) Resiliency

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop19 Multiple Hazard Model (1st Generation) Hazard Impact Risk Action Hazard Impact Risk Action Hazard Impact Risk Action

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop20 Multiple Hazard Model (2nd Generation) Hazard Impact Risk Hazard Impact Risk Action Hazard Impact Risk

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop21 Multiple Hazard Model (3rd Generation) Integrated Risk System Action Integrated Hazard System Integrated Impact System Hazard Impact Risk Hazard Impact Risk

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop22 Improving Resilience: Knowledge System Approach l “Product” orientation widely used to match scientific output to end-user needs. l Product design at provider level often assumes end-user knowledge is capped. l Elevating community knowledge base will produce higher-level outcomes l User-mediated science and technology outputs

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop23 Third Generation Multiple Hazard + Information Technology Action Integrated Hazard System Integrated Impact System Hazard Impact Risk Hazard Impact Risk Provider/User Community Interaction Model

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop24 Community Interaction Model l Links observational, modeling, simulation, prediction science l Links science to technology (engineering solutions) l Links solutions to risk management community l If near-real-time, links response and emergency management communities.

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop25 Community Feedback Loops l Feedback between sectors important for modulating basic S&T output. l Knowledge base kept high by combination of push and interactive technologies. l Heightened curiosity hastens application of new S&T advances in the field. l Move beyond virtual knowledge product generation.

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop26 IT Requirements for Implementation l Spatial data integration l Monitoring and near-real-time data assimilation of time series l Data QC, preliminary analysis, archiving, management for research and products l Physical descriptions: Characterizations and models l Modeling and simulation codes and results l Scenario building, description, and dissemination l Data integration from other components l Servicing decision pathways and community interactions –Mitigation planning –Emergency response l Capturing feedbacks l Formal and informal education l Community outreach l Products (push, interactive, user-mediated)

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop27 Education and Outreach l Certificate and Degree Programs l Student and investigator exchange l Integrated Project studios l Professional awareness l Public/political awareness l Identifying stakeholders l Links with digital media.

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop28 Highlights: Turkey Increased earthquake risk in Istanbul The 1999 Earthquake Sequence in Northwest Turkey points to the high likelihood of even more damaging earthquakes in the Marmara Sea (Istanbul) region, during the next few decades. The Center for Disaster Management (CENDIM) of Bogazici University and Columbia are initiating an alliance in research and education dealing with earthquake hazard risk reduction. Will extend Columbia’s current scientific work in the Marmara region and expand into structural and socio-economic risk assessment and risk management activity.

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop29 From: Parsons, Tom, Toda, Shinji, Stein, Ross S., Barka, Aykut, Dieterich, James H., Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation Science :

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop30 From: Parsons, Tom, Toda, Shinji, Stein, Ross S., Barka, Aykut, Dieterich, James H., Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation Science : Fig. 1. (A) Stress change caused by earthquakes since Shown are the maximum Coulomb stress changes between 0 and 20 km depth on optimally oriented vertical strike-slip faults (44). The assumed friction coefficient is 0.2, as has been found for strike-slip faults with large cumulative slip (45, 46). A 100-bar deviatoric tectonic stress with compression oriented N55°W (47) is used, under which optimally oriented right-lateral faults strike E-W except along the rupture surface. The 1993 to July 1999 seismicity recorded since installation of IZINET (7) has uniform coverage over the region shown. Calculated stress increases are associated with heightened seismicity rates and with the future epicenter of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake (indicated by star); sites of decreased stress exhibit low seismicity. (B) Izmit aftershocks are associated with stress increases caused by the main rupture [first 12 days from IZINET (7)], such as the Yalova cluster southeast of "Y," and the occurrence of the 12 November 1999 Düzce earthquake. Faults: Y, Yalova; P, Prince's Islands; M, Marmara; I, Izmit.

October 25-26, 2001CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop31 From: Parsons, Tom, Toda, Shinji, Stein, Ross S., Barka, Aykut, Dieterich, James H., Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation Science : Figure 4. (A) Observed and modeled transient response to stress transfer. The 13 M 6.8 North Anatolian earthquakes for which the stress at the future epicenter was increased by 0.5 bars are plotted as a function of time. The earthquake rate decays as t-1 in a manner identical to aftershocks, as predicted by (29-32). (B) Calculated probability of a M 7 earthquake (equivalent to MMI VIII shaking in greater Istanbul) as a function of time. The probability on each of three faults is summed (43). The large but decaying probability increase is caused by the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake. "Background” tracks the probability from earthquake renewal; "interaction" includes renewal and stress transfer. Light blue curve gives the probability had the Izmit earthquake not occurred.