HEAVY RAIN EVENTS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONES Matthew R. Cote, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.

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Presentation transcript:

HEAVY RAIN EVENTS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONES Matthew R. Cote, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr. National Weather Service Forecast Office Binghamton, NY CSTAR II Grant NA04NWS th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop 2 November 2006

Observations - Predecessor rain events (PREs) form with some regularity well in advance of tropical cyclones (TCs) - Rainfall can be at least as significant as that directly associated with the TC Forecasting Issues - Most operational focus on track and intensity of the TC itself when PREs occur - Heavy rain in advance of the TC may increase flooding risks - Flooding may occur where it was otherwise not expected OVERVIEW AND MOTIVATION

Demonstrate the PRE identification process Present preliminary climatological results Follow the evolution of the PREs associated with Katrina (29-30 August 2005) Compare the synoptic setup surrounding Katrina with that of the null case of Cindy (6-7 July 2005) GOALS

IDENTIFYING PREs Coherent area of rain displaced downstream from the parent TC - NCDC and WSI NOWRAD radar imagery - NHC best-track data Normalized rainfall greater than 100 mm/day - NPVU QPE archive - NWS text products Diagnosis of important synoptic-scale features - NCEP/NARR gridded datasets

PRE EXAMPLES OF PREs 1800 UTC WSI NOWRAD 2 km US Radar Mosaic

EXAMPLES OF PREs PREs 0900 UTC WSI NOWRAD 2 km US Radar Mosaic

CLIMATOLOGY Frequency Comparison of TC Occurrence with TCs Producing PREs

CLIMATOLOGY TC Track vs. PRE Location 32 Cases

Composition of Data Catalog - PRE 3 h positions based on rainfall centroid - TC positions and intensities during PREs - Approximate rainfall amounts isolated for each PRE Major PRE Characteristics - 12 TCs produced 32 PREs in 2004 and Median Separation Distance: 987 km - Median Time Lag: 30 h - Median Event Duration: 12 h - Slow-moving TCs more likely to produce multiple PREs compared to those moving more quickly CLIMATOLOGY

Heavy rainfall developed in association with: Mid- and upper-level jet- entrance region confluence zone Differential CVA caused by a weak short wave Moisture tongue extending through low-level ridge line Bosart and Carr (1978) conceptual model of antecedent rainfall PAST RESEARCH ON PRE WITH AGNES (1972)

CASE STUDY: KATRINA (29-30 AUG 2005)

1200 UTC hPa Ht (dam), Theta-e (K), and Winds (kts) 1200 UTC hPa Ht (dam) and Winds (kts) 1200 UTC hPa Ht (dam), AVor (10 -5 s -1 ), and hPa Thck (dam) 1200 UTC WSI NOWRAD 2 KM US Radar Mosaic

1800 UTC hPa Ht (dam), Theta-e (K), and Winds (kts) 1800 UTC hPa Ht (dam) and Winds (kts) 1800 UTC hPa Ht (dam), AVor (10 -5 s -1 ), and hPa Thck (dam) 1800 UTC WSI NOWRAD 2 KM US Radar Mosaic

0000 UTC hPa Ht (dam), Theta-e (K), and Winds (kts) 0000 UTC hPa Ht (dam) and Winds (kts) 0000 UTC hPa Ht (dam), AVor (10 -5 s -1 ), and hPa Thck (dam) 0000 UTC WSI NOWRAD 2 KM US Radar Mosaic

0600 UTC hPa Ht (dam), Theta-e (K), and Winds (kts) 0600 UTC hPa Ht (dam) and Winds (kts) 0600 UTC hPa Ht (dam), AVor (10 -5 s -1 ), and hPa Thck (dam) 0600 UTC WSI NOWRAD 2 KM US Radar Mosaic

1200 UTC hPa Ht (dam), Theta-e (K), and Winds (kts) 1200 UTC hPa Ht (dam) and Winds (kts) 1200 UTC hPa Ht (dam), AVor (10 -5 s -1 ), and hPa Thck (dam) 1200 UTC WSI NOWRAD 2 KM US Radar Mosaic

1800 UTC hPa Ht (dam), Theta-e (K), and Winds (kts) 1800 UTC hPa Ht (dam) and Winds (kts) 1800 UTC hPa Ht (dam), AVor (10 -5 s -1 ), and hPa Thck (dam) 1800 UTC WSI NOWRAD 2 KM US Radar Mosaic

NULL CASE: CINDY 6-7 July 2005

1200 UTC hPa Ht (dam), Theta-e (K), and Winds (kts) 1200 UTC hPa Ht (dam) and Winds (kts) 1200 UTC hPa Ht (dam), AVor (10 -5 s -1 ), and hPa Thck (dam) 1200 UTC WSI NOWRAD 2 KM US Radar Mosaic

1800 UTC hPa Ht (dam), Theta-e (K), and Winds (kts) 1800 UTC hPa Ht (dam) and Winds (kts) 1800 UTC hPa Ht (dam), AVor (10 -5 s -1 ), and hPa Thck (dam) 1800 UTC WSI NOWRAD 2 KM US Radar Mosaic

0000 UTC hPa Ht (dam), Theta-e (K), and Winds (kts) 0000 UTC hPa Ht (dam) and Winds (kts) 0000 UTC hPa Ht (dam), AVor (10 -5 s -1 ), and hPa Thck (dam) 0000 UTC WSI NOWRAD 2 KM US Radar Mosaic

0600 UTC hPa Ht (dam), Theta-e (K), and Winds (kts) 0600 UTC hPa Ht (dam) and Winds (kts) 0600 UTC hPa Ht (dam), AVor (10 -5 s -1 ), and hPa Thck (dam) 0600 UTC WSI NOWRAD 2 KM US Radar Mosaic

1200 UTC hPa Ht (dam), Theta-e (K), and Winds (kts) 1200 UTC hPa Ht (dam) and Winds (kts) 1200 UTC hPa Ht (dam), AVor (10 -5 s -1 ), and hPa Thck (dam) 1200 UTC WSI NOWRAD 2 KM US Radar Mosaic

CONCLUSIONS Katrina vs. Cindy Comparison - Bosart and Carr (1978) schematic model, coupled with separation distance, time lag, and TC speed statistics, may aid in predicting if, where, and how many PREs will develop - Longitude and orientation of trough axes appear important in determining potential PRE development Katrina Case Study - Weak forcing for ascent may be sufficient to trigger coherent areas of heavy rain downstream of approaching TCs - Positive θ e advection and divergent jet entrance and exit regions promote favorable conditions for heavy rain formation

Expand PRE climatological data further back in time Provide adequate physical explanations for the differences between left-of-track, along-track, and right-of-track PREs, and the apparent left-of-track preference Examine the role mesoscale features may have played in the development of recent PREs Classify and subdivide the different modes of predecessor rain events FUTURE RESEARCH

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS?