Source: IPCC 1.Reduced Biodiversity (rapid change) 2.Sea level rise and coastal flooding (melting ice and thermal expansion) 3.Expansion of tropical.

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Presentation transcript:

Source: IPCC

1.Reduced Biodiversity (rapid change) 2.Sea level rise and coastal flooding (melting ice and thermal expansion) 3.Expansion of tropical disease range 4.Soil Moisture Decreases and Desertification ?

5.Increased frequency of heat illness (problem for the elderly) 6.Increased frequency of severe events? 7.Engineering problem of thermokarst (transportation and housing) 8.Affect on outdoor winter recreation and winter tourism

1.Increasing NPP? 2.Increased food production?: CO 2 fertilization, range & growing season (depends on soil moisture/depth/nutrients) 3.Increased water-use efficiency 4.Increased nutrient-use efficiency? 5.High latitude warming (positive and negative)

Source: IPCC

Ice core data Temperature, CO 2 and CH 4 are all in phase Are the gas concentrations a cause or an effect of warming or both ?

Source: IPCC

HADCM3 Model Prediction Global Circulation Model Projection: Non-uniform spatial distribution of global surface temperature increase

Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE)

FACE Results: NPP increases (eg. 40% in cotton; 25% for Sweetgum for 550 ppm vs. 370 ppm) Carbon sink increase limited for forests: Increase in wood production is short-lived; C goes mainly to fine roots and leaves; affected by soil fertility No effect on LAI Stomatal conductance decreases (increased water-use efficiency) Lower leaf nitrogen concentration: need less or have less?

Carbon Sinks

But what are we doing to our sinks ?

Annual Atmospheric Increase 3.3(±0.2) PgC (billion metric tonnes) Why ? Emissions from fossil fuels +5.5(±0.5) Changes in land use +1.6(±0.7) Oceanic uptake - 2.0(±0.8) Missing carbon sink - 1.8(±1.2) Possible source: Underestimation of terrestrial uptake Mid-latitude forest regrowth ? Will the missing sink last ? Source: Woods Hole Observatory

Source: IPCC

Meanwhile, we are detecting stratospheric cooling ! Why ? Ozone depletion Tropospheric [CO 2 ] increases

Interannual climatic variability at the global scale Caused by changing atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean

See

Q. Is there a relationship between the frequency and/or strength of El Nino Southern Oscillation and climate change ? A. We don’t know. However, effects might be exacerbated in a warmer climate (higher sea levels would enhance flooding, precipitation heavier during enhancement, evaporation greater during drought phases)

El Nino-related flooding in N. California Mainly due to shifting winds