MAP D-PHASE COPS Workshop, April 10, 2006 Mathias Rotach Chair MD-SC.

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Presentation transcript:

MAP D-PHASE COPS Workshop, April 10, 2006 Mathias Rotach Chair MD-SC

Overview  Context & ‘history’  Organisation  Overview over activities  Collaboration

MAP History Preparation Phase Experimental Phase, 1999 SOP Analysis Phase Demonstration Phase Forecast Demonstration Project

MAP History Preparation Phase Experimental Phase, 1999 SOP Analysis Phase Demonstration Phase MAP D-PHASE

 MAP: first WWRP RDP  D-PHASE: 2nd WWRP FDP  Focus --> heavy precipitation --> hydrology --> high-resolution numerical modelling Demonstration of ability to better understand, model and forecast strong precipitation events and related hydrological processes from end to end… … due to MAP

August 2005 flood in Switzerland

Impact of Alps on August 2005 floods Without Alps:Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

COSMO-LEPS 10 RMs (weighted) Without Alps:Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

COSMO-LEPS 10 RMs (weighted) Without Alps:Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

COSMO-LEPS 10 RMs (weighted) Without Alps:Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

COSMO-LEPS 10 RMs (weighted) Without Alps:Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

MAP D-PHASE D-PHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of heavy precipitation Events in the Alpine region

MAP D-PHASE  October 2005: endorsement by WWRP  Int. Steering Committee --> Steinacker/Dorninger, Staudinger (A), Rotach, Schär (CH), Volkert, Wulfmeyer (D), Bouttier, Richard (F), Buzzi, Frustaci, Ranzi (I), Mylne (UK)  1st MD-SC meeting, 13/14 March 2006  D-PHASE ‘office’: --> Marco Arpagaus, project coordinator -->  Implementation Plan

MAP D-PHASE working groups  WG-DI: Data interface --> chair: A. Montani, ARPA-SIM  WG-HEU: Hydrology and End users --> co-chairs: R. Ranzi, U Brescia, C. Hegg, WSL  WG-VER: verficiation --> chair: M. Dorninger, U Vienna  WG-DP: Data policy --> chair M. Rotach, MeteoSwiss

End-to-end forecasting system

Atmospheric Models

aLMo2 COSMO-LEPS

Hydrological Models

Lago Maggiore Glarus Liguria Iller, Lech, Isar Emilia Romagna

‘End users’

Implementation Plan  MD-SC approved the basic assumptions … all data, alerts, and feedbacks are verified / evaluated all data are visualised all alerts are visualised general rules for information flow  … and their consequences common data interface (DI) common data visualisation platform (DVP) common warning and feedback platform (WFP) in general: individual implementation

International Collaboration  common data interface (DI)  common data visualisation platform (DVP) --> joint with COPS --> ‘Demonstration period’: June - November 2007  common warning and feedback platform (WFP) --> in collaboration with Meteorisk  ETReC07

1st MAP D-PHASE meeting  November  Vienna  local Organiser: M. Dorninger / R. Steinacker  Atmospheric modeling  Hydrological modeling  high-resolution probabilistic simulation  nowcasting  Verification approaches  Previous studies from ‘D-PHASE catchments’