CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Before you start Please press F5 to run this show.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Excel Services IV: Allow user input Overview: Be selective When you use Excel Services to publish an Excel 2007 spreadsheet to your Microsoft Office SharePoint.
Advertisements

CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Before you start Please press F5 to run this show.
Incorporating Seasonality Modeling seasonality with trend Forecasting.
Part II – TIME SERIES ANALYSIS C1 Introduction to TSA © Angel A. Juan & Carles Serrat - UPC 2007/2008 "If we could first know where we are, then whither.
Guide to Using Excel For Basic Statistical Applications To Accompany Business Statistics: A Decision Making Approach, 5th Ed. Chapter 15: Analyzing and.
Time Series Analysis Autocorrelation Naive & Simple Averaging
Chapter 5 Time Series Analysis
Using a Centered Moving Average to Extract the Seasonal Component of a Time Series If we are forecasting with say, quarterly time series data, a 4-period.
AEB 37 / AE 802 Marketing Research Methods Week 5
Exercise 7.1 a. Find and report the four seasonal factors for quarter 1, 2, 3 and 4 sn1 = 1.191, sn2 = 1.521, sn3 = 0.804, sn4 = b. What is the.
CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Before you start Please press F5 to run this show.
ForecastingModelsWith Trend and Seasonal Effects.
Operations Management R. Dan Reid & Nada R. Sanders
CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Before you start Please press F5 to run this show.
Modeling Time Series Data Module 5. A Composite Model We can fit a composite model of the form: Sales = (Trend) * (Seasonality) * (Cyclicality) * (Error)
Slides 13b: Time-Series Models; Measuring Forecast Error
The KPK Excel Macros The textbook authors have written a set of Excel macros An Excel macro carries out statistical calculations or constructs a statistical.
Sociology 690 SPSS Introduction. Using SPSS The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) started at Stanford University in the late 1960’s.
Simple ideas of correlation Correlation refers to a connection between two sets of data. We will also be able to quantify the strength of that relationship.
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 12-1 Chapter 12 Simple Linear Regression Statistics for Managers Using.
Doc.Ing. Zlata Sojková, CSc.1 Time series (TS). doc.Ing. Zlata Sojková, CSc.2.
Biostatistics, statistical software II. A brief survey of statistical program systems Krisztina Boda PhD Department of Medical Informatics, University.
Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Statistics for Business and Economics 8 th Edition Chapter 11 Simple Regression Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch.
Example 13.1 Forecasting Monthly Stereo Sales Testing for Randomness.
Time Series Analysis Introduction Averaging Trend Seasonality.
Linear Trend Lines Y t = b 0 + b 1 X t Where Y t is the dependent variable being forecasted X t is the independent variable being used to explain Y. In.
Part IV Significantly Different: Using Inferential Statistics
ESTIMATING & FORECASTING DEMAND Chapter 4 slide 1 Regression Analysis estimates the equation that best fits the data and measures whether the relationship.
Test Your Knowledge. x + 3 =6 a.5 b.4 c.3 d.2 y - 11= 78 a. 69 b. 89 c. 87 d. 68.
Forecasting Models Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing.
Path Analysis. Remember What Multiple Regression Tells Us How each individual IV is related to the DV The total amount of variance explained in a DV Multiple.
Analyse time series data to make a forecast.  Forecast will be based on:  estimates of the trend for the smoothed data  estimates of seasonal effects.
Creating Projects in JCreator Computer Science 40S.
Week 11 Introduction A time series is an ordered sequence of observations. The ordering of the observations is usually through time, but may also be taken.
Trend Projection Model b0b0 b1b1 YiYi
SADC Course in Statistics Forecasting and Review (Sessions 04&05)
Standard view – default to week tab – all ok! Please make Price with an upper case P When you click on the month tab, the average is not correct – it should.
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 13-1 Introduction to Regression Analysis Regression analysis is used.
Antarctic Sea Ice. Quantitative description [A] The linear trend has an equation of y = x This means that, on average, the area of Antarctic.
Example 13.2 Quarterly Sales of Johnson & Johnson Regression-Based Trend Models.
1 Chapter 5 Demand Forecasting. 2 1.Importance of Forecasting  Helps planning for long-term growth  Helps in gauging the economic activity (auto sales,
Welcome to MM305 Unit 5 Seminar Prof Greg Forecasting.
MARKET APPRAISAL. Steps in Market Appraisal Situational Analysis and Specification of Objectives Collection of Secondary Information Conduct of Market.
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SCIENCE COMPUTATION AND RESEARCH (CSSCR) UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON FALL 2015 CONSULTANT: SHIN HAENG LEE Intro to R with R commander.
Sociology 680 SPSS Introduction. Using SPSS The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) started at Stanford University in the late 1960’s.
Lecture 10 Introduction to Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis.
Using SPSS Note: The use of another statistical package such as Minitab is similar to using SPSS.
CHAPTER 12 FORECASTING. THE CONCEPTS A prediction of future events used for planning purpose Supply chain success, resources planning, scheduling, capacity.
Chapter 4 Minitab Recipe Cards. Correlation coefficients Enter the data from Example 4.1 in columns C1 and C2 of the worksheet.
*This presentation represents the author’s personal opinion and does not necessarily reflect the *view of the Deutsche Bundesbank or its staff. Sources.
Economics 173 Business Statistics Lecture 28 © Fall 2001, Professor J. Petry
STATISTICS 13.0 Linear Time Series Trend “Time Series ”- Time Series Forecasting Method.
Chapter 12 Simple Regression Statistika.  Analisis regresi adalah analisis hubungan linear antar 2 variabel random yang mempunyai hub linear,  Variabel.
Introduction Many problems in Engineering, Management, Health Sciences and other Sciences involve exploring the relationships between two or more variables.
Chapter 3 Lect 6 Forecasting. Seasonality – Repetition at Fixed Intervals Seasonal variations –Regularly repeating movements in series values that can.
1 CHAPTER 9 FORECASTING PRACTICE II: ASSESSMENT OF FORECASTS AND COMBINATION OF FORECASTS 9.1 Optimal Forecast González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics.
Input dataClick ToolsClick Data Analysis Click Regression Enter range of data from Column B in Input Y Range Enter range of data from Column A in Input.
Example 16.7a Deseasonalizing: The Ratio-to-Moving-Averages Method.
Computer aided teaching of statistics: advantages and disadvantages
Forecasting Module 1 By Sue B. Schou Phone:
BUSINESS MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS.
Chapter 4: Seasonal Series: Forecasting and Decomposition
Using SPSS Note: The use of another statistical package such as Minitab is similar to using SPSS.
IO 6402 Enthusiastic Studysnaptutorial.com
Simple Linear Regression
DOE Oil Price Forecasts
Forecasting Models With Trend and Seasonal Effects
Using SPSS Note: The use of another statistical package such as Minitab is similar to using SPSS.
X ⦁ X = 64 ±8 ±14 X ⦁ X ⦁ X =
Presentation transcript:

CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Before you start Please press F5 to run this show.

CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Business Forecasting and Planning This module is partially assessed by a practical test. In the test SPSS (Statistics Package for Social Sciences) and Microsoft Excel are used to help analyse data sets and obtain forecasts.

CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Business Forecasting and Planning In the example that follows an estate agent is interested in predicting the price of a house given its size in terms of floor space.

CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Business Forecasting and Planning A data file is supplied:

CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Business Forecasting and Planning Which may need amendments:

CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Business Forecasting and Planning and for which appropriate output has to be generated:

CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Business Forecasting and Planning

CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Business Forecasting and Planning In test conditions, the student is required to interpret this output and be able to extract the correct forecasting equation, which would enable the estate agent to obtain the desired house price predictions. Students may also be supplied with time- series data to analyse:

CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Business Forecasting and Planning In the following example the data relates to quarterly fuel costs and the student is required to analyse this using an appropriate decomposition model, producing a moving average series and/or seasonal indices.

CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Business Forecasting and Planning

CREATE THE DIFFERENCE Business Forecasting and Planning Again, it is essential that all output/analysis can be interpreted correctly and used to quantify the trend and/or seasonal effect to allow future fuel costs to be forecast.

CREATE THE DIFFERENCE The End Click here to go back to module informationhere