Lecture 13: The Crisis- prone 60s and 70s February 4, 2009

Extra Credit Opportunity!!! Read the paper “What is to be Done?” through course website link “extra credit assignment” Read the paper “What is to be Done?” through course website link “extra credit assignment” Come to lecture on Monday 2/9 Come to lecture on Monday 2/9 Write a one-page (double-spaced) thoughtful response paper Write a one-page (double-spaced) thoughtful response paper Turn it in to your TA by 2/19 Turn it in to your TA by 2/19

Results of Interventions "When two elephants fight, it is only the grass which gets hurt" "When two elephants fight, it is only the grass which gets hurt" Not easy to control internal politics Not easy to control internal politics Exacerbated civil wars Exacerbated civil wars Vietnam and Korea debacles Vietnam and Korea debacles End of superpower patronage  end of wars & new wars End of superpower patronage  end of wars & new wars In 3 rd world, stalemate In 3 rd world, stalemate Unintended consequences Unintended consequences

Detente Relaxation of tensions Relaxation of tensions Cuban Missile Crisis  “hotline” Cuban Missile Crisis  “hotline” Arms reduction treaties Arms reduction treaties Political and human rights agreements Political and human rights agreements Helsinki Accords (1975) Helsinki Accords (1975)

Domestic Crisis

The Vietnam Debate Pro Just war fought against North Vietnamese/Soviet aggression Just war fought against North Vietnamese/Soviet aggression US lost because of civilian meddling, public opinion US lost because of civilian meddling, public opinion Warned of “Vietnam Syndrome” Warned of “Vietnam Syndrome”Con War unnecessary, no threat to US security War unnecessary, no threat to US security War unwinnable, no military solution War unwinnable, no military solution

Monetary Crisis US spending on war, domestic programs  inflation, dollar overvalued US spending on war, domestic programs  inflation, dollar overvalued Strong dollar  US imported more than it exported  deficits Strong dollar  US imported more than it exported  deficits What to do? (1) reduce spending, (2) raise interest rates, or (3) devalue dollar What to do? (1) reduce spending, (2) raise interest rates, or (3) devalue dollar De facto devaluation 1971 De facto devaluation 1971 Nixon took dollar off gold 1973 Nixon took dollar off gold 1973 Undermined confidence in US leadership Undermined confidence in US leadership Led to international instability in exchange rates Led to international instability in exchange rates Governments had no incentive to implement austerity—inflation Governments had no incentive to implement austerity—inflation

Oil Crisis Arab-Israeli 1973 War Arab-Israeli 1973 War

Oil Crisis Arab-Israeli 1973 War Arab-Israeli 1973 War Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised price of oil Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised price of oil  rationing in US  worldwide inflation an recession  boom in oil-producing countries

Oil Crisis

Iranian Revolution

Hostage Crisis

Soviet “Advances” in 3 rd World Communist successes in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Angola, Mozambique, Ethiopia, South Yemen, Grenada, Nicaragua Communist successes in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Angola, Mozambique, Ethiopia, South Yemen, Grenada, Nicaragua US decline in international prestige US decline in international prestige Soviet invasion of Afghanistan Soviet invasion of Afghanistan

Afghanistan: The “Soviet Vietnam”

Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan US Response Alarm: Prestige concerns Alarm: Prestige concerns Alarm: geostrategic concerns Alarm: geostrategic concerns Opportunism: “make the Soviets bleed” Opportunism: “make the Soviets bleed” Implications of Invasion and Withdrawal Mass casualties Mass casualties Soviets demoralized Soviets demoralized  reassessment of foreign policy Carter weakened politically Carter weakened politically Withdrawal  civil war, Taliban Withdrawal  civil war, Taliban Transnational Islamist networks  al Qaeda Transnational Islamist networks  al Qaeda