The Social Costs of Incarceration Discussant: Robert LaLonde The University of Chicago June 6, 2006

Outcomes of Interest How Does Incarceration Affect: How Does Incarceration Affect: –Graduation rates of Children? –Mother’s educational attainment? –Poverty/Family Income? –Aids/HIV? Two Strategies: Two Strategies: –Aggregated measures of adult incarceration –Individual measures of juvenile incarceration

CJI and HS Completion Effect of juvenile incarceration on HS graduation rates (by age 19). Effect of juvenile incarceration on HS graduation rates (by age 19). –Using NLSY97 Compare incarcerated to observationally similar children who are convicted, but not incarcerated. (See Table 3.) Compare incarcerated to observationally similar children who are convicted, but not incarcerated. (See Table 3.) –Similar selection: arrested, charged, convicted. –Very rich set of control variables. Effect: 9 percentage points or ~ 25%. Effect: 9 percentage points or ~ 25%.

Comments Is this effect too big? Is this effect too big? Missing family SES variables. Missing family SES variables. –I agree that the missing variables likely less correlated with incarceration. The “effect” of sex before 15 is about the same! The “effect” of sex before 15 is about the same! –Why is incarcerated before age 16 causal, but suspended before age 12 not? How many girls driving the female results? How many girls driving the female results? Makes strong case with cross sectional data. Makes strong case with cross sectional data.

Male Imprisonment on Child Poverty Outcomes: Outcomes: –Whether African-American child under 15 lives in household in poverty. – Log of family income. Statistical Model: Statistical Model: Y ijt = X ijt B +  INR jt +  t +  j + u ijt Y ijt = X ijt B +  INR jt +  t +  j + u ijt –The term “INR jt ” is the incarceration rate of 17 to 40 year old African-American men. –Ranges from 1.2% to 7.3%.

Comments #1 Are effects on poverty too big? Are effects on poverty too big? –Logit coefficient: –Marginal probability 1.207*0.4*0.6 ~.30  A 1 percentage point change in INR raised child poverty rate by 30 percentage points?  A 1 percentage point change in INR raised child poverty rate by.3 percentage points? Single mother family coefficient: Single mother family coefficient: Effects on log family income Effects on log family income –OLS coefficient:

Comments #2 The effect of INR is identified using state- time interactions. The effect of INR is identified using state- time interactions. –State*time trends (random growth component) –Omitted State*time variables:  Y ijt = X ijt B +   INR jt +  2 emp_pop jt +  t +  j + u ijt  Measures of state*time economic/labor market conditions for African-Americans are more important determinants of poverty and incomes.  Fluctuations in African-American unemployment rate. The effects on mother’s education… The effects on mother’s education…

Needs Figure That Reveals What is Going on with the Data High Incarceration Growth States Low Incarceration Growth States Time Child Poverty j,t – Child Poverty j,.

Should INR Affect Family Income? Direct Effects: Income lost while male is in prison. Direct Effects: Income lost while male is in prison. Indirect effects: Effect of prison on subsequent earnings? Indirect effects: Effect of prison on subsequent earnings? Conjecture: The former effect is small and the later effect is negligible. Conjecture: The former effect is small and the later effect is negligible. –Jeff Kling’s research –Shawn Bushway’s edited volume –My research on incarcerated women

Incarceration on AIDS Infection Outcome: Outcome: –Number of new AIDS cases per 100,000 in race, age, state, and year group. Statistical Model: Statistical Model: –Y rajt =   IM rajt +  2 IF rajt +  raj +  jt +  rt +  at + u rajt –IM rajt male proportion incarcerated in rajt group. –Allow for a lagged structure. –Long run effects =  of lags.

Comments Where are the economic determinants of health outcomes? Where are the economic determinants of health outcomes? –In  jt –Potential differential effects of economic conditions on race and age groupings used to identify the effects    2 Sum of lags is ~37 (in Table 3, column 3) Sum of lags is ~37 (in Table 3, column 3) –On pages 32 – 35 : how big are these effects? –Sustained 0.01 increase in male group “raj” incarceration raises AIDS rate by.37? “Much of differential …attributable to historical differences in the rates at which black men are incarcerated.” “Much of differential …attributable to historical differences in the rates at which black men are incarcerated.” Instruments: State legal regimes on sentencing. Instruments: State legal regimes on sentencing.