Success Stories – Making a Difference Optimizing HF Radar for SAR using USCG Surface Drifters Art Allen U.S. Coast Guard Josh Kohut, Scott Glenn Rutgers University and the Mid-Atlantic Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System

USCG Area of Responsibility

Mid-Atlantic is the Most Urbanized Coast in the Unites States Puerto Rico has many similarities

CG Wide 1) 3 searches / day = ~ 1000 / yr 2) 3 persons lost / day = ~ 1000 / yr 3) Costs $10k/hr to search $10k/hr x ~1000 x ~ 3 hr = ~ $30M 4) Value of Statistical Life = $3M 1000 x $3M = ~ $3B

CG Wide 1) Assume 100 persons involved / yr with sub-optimal search areas 2) Assume 22% POS now “typical” 3) 22 save/100 vs. 48/100 vs. 67/100 4) Save 26 to 45 additional persons / yr ($ 78M – $135M VSL)

Search & Rescue Problem Create a SAR case when alerted Gather data, estimate uncertainties Use model to determine search area Estimate resource availability and capability Plan the next search Promulgate the search plan Perform the search plan Evaluate the completed search Repeat above until survivors are found and rescued

Compact CODAR HF Radars Receive Antenna Transmit Antenna 25 MHz and 13 MHz 5 MHz

MARCOOS

Arthur Allen, Chris Turner, Marion Lewandowski, Paul Hall, Eoin Howlett, Dave Ullman, Jim O’Donnell, Todd Fake, Josh Kohut, Hugh Roarty, Scott Glenn Integration of CODAR and UConn Statistical Forecasts with SAROPS 2002 – Tidally Dominated – Long Island Sound Winds & Tides - Full Continental Shelf

US Coast Guard Self Locating Data Marker Buoy (SLDMB) Drifters are Tossed Overboard Expand and Drift with the Surface currents Positions transmitted to Shore via satellite

Nearest Coastal Site CODAR Currents SLDMB Drifter Long Island Sound (2002) New Jersey Shelf (2004) Comparison of Actual Drifter Tracks with CODAR Data

Nearest Coastal Site CODAR Currents SLDMB Drifter Long Island Sound (2002) New Jersey Shelf (2004) Comparison of Actual Drifter Tracks with CODAR Data

Lost Found 10 days later Search Plane Communication Plane Civil Air Patrol Glider ru02 as seen from Search Plane Lost Glider Recovery: Rutgers, USCG, Civil Air Patrol

Statistical Model STPS – U. Connecticut Dynamical Models NYHOPS – Stevens Institute of Technology ROMS – Rutgers University HOPS – U. Massachusetts, Dartmouth All 4 forecasts will be evaluated for inclusion in the USCG search planning tool, SAROPS MARCOOS Forecast Models HF Radar Data Assimilation