Prediction OPI Area hatchery coho –Jack to Adult regression Oregon Coastal Natural (OCN) coho –Environmental Sea Surface Temperature Upwelling Year (?)

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Prediction OPI Area hatchery coho –Jack to Adult regression Oregon Coastal Natural (OCN) coho –Environmental Sea Surface Temperature Upwelling Year (?) Lower Columbia River coho –Not predicted

Time Series of OPI Area Hatchery Coho Adults/Jack

Jacks (t) Adults (t+1)

“Ocean Conditions Model” with predictions Production OPI Hatchery Marine Survival Sea Surface Temperature Sea Level Spring Transition Predicted Observed

Environmental predictor for OCN coho: ln(Recruits) = a + b*Year + c* Upwelling + d*Sea Surface Temperature r 2 = 0.48 p =

Harvest Management How to manage with this level of predictive capacity? –Weak stock –Exploitation Rate Matrix marine survival parental spawners

Marine Survival Parental Spawner Escapement Exploitation Rate OCN and Lower Columbia River coho salmon harvest management Low High Low High Low High < 8% 45% < 8%

Planning for the Future Understand climate interactions Anticipate and prepare for likely futures Hatchery vs. Wild Flexible management strategies

After: Cycles in Ocean Productivity, Trends in Habitat Quality, and the Restoration of Salmon Runs in Oregon (Lawson 1993)

Coho Salmon Life-cycle with Freshwater and Marine Environmental Factors

OO ++ Spawners EarlyLate fecundity Eggs * * OO ++ Population Dynamics Freshwater Habitat Climate Patterns Marine Survival Harvest Management Metapopulation Dynamics

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