FUNDAMENTALS OF CRIME ANALYSIS Carol McCoy Lenexa Police Department

4 Types of Analysis (The soap opera theory . . .) Crime (or: Who’s doing what TO whom . . .) Intelligence (or: Who’s doing what WITH whom . . .) Operations (or: Who’s using what where . . .) Investigations (or: Let’s find out who’s doing what to whom, where, why, and with what . . . . .)

What Is Crime Analysis, anyway? A systematic process of collecting, categorizing, analyzing, and disseminating timely, accurate, and useful information that describes crime patterns, crime trends, and potential suspects.

What Is Intelligence Analysis? The systematic collection, evaluation, analysis, integration, and dissemination of information on criminals, especially related to their association and their identification with criminal activity of an organized nature. Particularly applicable to organized crime, i.e., syndicates, auto theft rings, fraud credit card ops, etc. The main difference between crime analysis and intelligence analysis is that crime analysis focuses on the correlation of certain elements of a crime and criminal intelligence on names of individuals and organization. Also has three types (admin, strategic, and tactical). Specific case is tactical, and long range is strategic.

What is Operations Analysis? The study of police service delivery problems, undertaken to provide commanders and managers with a scientific basis for decisions and/or actions aimed at improving operations or deployment of resources. Things to look at: CFS rates Crime rates Response times Size of jurisdiction Size of PD Patrol deployment policy Workload pattern Budget

What is Investigative Analysis? A process identifying the personality and behavioral characteristics of an offender based on crimes her/she has committed. (Profiling)

What Do The Terms Mean? Law enforcement is a notorious data collector. We collect just about everything from everybody we come into contact with. But the problem, historically, is that all that data disappears into a black hole somewhere. And I can give you an example: A local PD invested a good chunk of money and time in a new, automated records management system. It came with all sorts of canned reporting capabilities and is NIBRS compliant; BUT would you believe that until about four months ago, that particular agency couldn’t tell you how many stolen autos they had? It seems the system would query on the statute field, and Kansas has no separate statute for stolen autos. Some of the terms frequently used in crime analysis can be confusing. I’d like to define some of the more common ones for you.

Crime Pattern - The occurrence of similar offenses in a defined geographic area, usually defined by administrative boundaries. Crime Series - A crime pattern where there is reason to believe the same person(s) committed the crimes. Crime Trend - A recognizable general tendency regarding recurring patterns of crime which is revealed over a period of time. A trend may involve any one of the crime pattern factors or any combination of the factors.

Types of Crime Analysis Administrative Strategic Tactical Administrative - Used to provide economic, geographic, or social information to administrators. Used to support grants, feasibility studies, special research projects, city council requests, i.e. Your typical dog & pony show . . . . Tactical - Used to help operations personnel in the id of specific and immediate crime problems and to help arrest the crooks. Used to provide a quick response to field situations. Strategic - Used to support long-range planning, and the projection of long-range p problems and projections of long-term changes in crime trends. Used to support personnel and equipment allocations, additions, deletions.

Administrative Crime Analysis is. . . . . .used for policy development and resource justification. Cost-effectiveness studies Program evaluations Budget justifications

Strategic Crime Analysis is . . . . . . used for identifying problems and potential approaches for dealing with them. Exception Reports - identifies unusual levels of activity in an area over a month-to-month or annual time period. Crime Trend Forecasts - projects future trends in various types of crimes based on past experience. Resource Allocation Proposals - suggests shifts of resource(s) to meet new crime related service demands. Situational Analysis - provides information about crime problems and the environment in which they are occurring. Often referred to as Beat Profiling.

Tactical Crime Analysis is . . . . . . used to take action designed to address specific types of crimes and offenders. Detection of crime patterns/series - identifies crime problems, defines them in specific terms Crime-suspect correlation - focuses on individuals responsible for groups of crimes Target/suspect profiles - monitors characteristics of potential career criminals and identifies victims or premises that are frequent crime targets Crime potential forecasts - cites most likely time, location of an offense.

Recipe for a Successful CAU . . .

Strategy CAU implementation committee Site visits to operational CAUs Planning tools Implementation committee - Executive commitment a necessity. Folks need to know the chief/sheriff supports, fully supports, the program. Project director - LEO executive Project manager - Supervisor of the program CA supervisor (if not project manager) Patrol commander “ “ Investigations commander “ “ Maybe even a user committee? CAU, patrol, detectives, records, specialty units, crime prevention, admin, communications, training, traffic. Not necessarily supervisors . . . .give line troops some ownership.

Logistical Issues Organizational placement Planning/Research? CEO’s office? Investigations? Patrol? Consider how supportive of crime analysis the commander of each division is. Under no circumstances should the unit be assigned to planning, research, budget or similar admin divisions. Why? Primary objective is to detect crime patterns and series and to provide patrol and investigative officers w/info necessary to ID crooks! These folks should be the very first beneficiaries of an analyst’s efforts and it is VITAL that analysts become acquainted, regularly communicate, interact with, and be continually available - on a daily basis - to provide these officers the info they want and need. If P&R, then CAU should only be an extension of them; should have their own separate identity. BUT P&R should definitely be in on the planning and development of the unit. CEO - If unit is housed here, what do you think the % of Administrative analysis will be? Firefighting? Big Brother? (keeping track of our stats, etc.) Investigations - Usually the first and best users. Definitely tactically oriented. Patrol - Closest to data sources and users. Tactical and strategic users. HELPS TO GAIN PATROL SUPPORT ( usually the hardest to win over)

Physical location of CAU Maximize officer contact. Close to information sources. Roll call rooms have been used in some jurisdictions. Consider amount of space, equipment, and supplies needed. Location should promote foot traffic; I keep candy in my office as a “lure” . . . Should definitely be located away from the CEO. I mean, really, how many of you (other than at evaluation time) INTENTIONALLY walk by the Chief’s/Sheriff’s office on a daily basis? Info sources include Records, Investigations, Data Processing, Patrol.

Staffing How many Clerical and support needs Volunteers CAU hours One school of thought allocates one analyst per 75 sworn OR one analyst per 15-20 Part 1 crimes daily. The IACP recommends 1-2 analysts (plus clerical support) for 100-300 personnel, 3-4 for+ 300-800, 5-7 for 800-1200. Another rough guideline is 1 analyst per 150 sworn. Analyst should not be so involved in data input, filing, typing, etc., that they have no time for analysis. Volunteers can be: Student CJ majors Retired Should be systematic approach to recruitment, selection, training and supervision AARP is a valuable TA resource Consider flextime for analysts Survey hours and days of week when CAU most needed An 8-5 Mon-Fri holidays off operation may appear uncommitted to officers and the BIG question . . . . .

OR SWORN? CIVILIAN? LEO PRO experience and knowledge of police operations immediate credibility with line officers/detectives CON Fails to accomplish very important objective that is central to the purpose of crime analysis - freeing the cops to be cops. Reduces strength of patrol force Diminishes uncommitted patrol time of officers who are working the street. Subject to transfer or promotion Light duty okay as augmentation, but not primary CIVILIAN See above CON Lack of acceptance by line officers/detectives SWORN? CIVILIAN?

Computer Stuff Hardware Software PC Color printer Plotter Scanner Statistical RDBS Word Processing GIS Crime Analysis PC - biggest, fastest, bestest available Color printer Plotter Scanner - Software (ISSUE HANDOUTS HERE) and discuss various packages

Training Alpha Group FBI IACP IACA ANACAPA Sciences, Inc. Cal. State U., Fullerton Cal. State U., San Bernardino This is where you hand out a list of training contacts/resources, including the internet list.

How Is Crime Analysis Done? Collect the data Collate the data Analyze the data DISSEMINATE the data! Feedback/evaluation

Data Collection Gathering “crime specific” elements of information about crime problems, primarily from Offense reports Arrest reports Field interviews Data is the heart of a CAU; it can’t exist without it. Data needs to be ACCURATE! Internal sources: Investigation supplements CFS info Criminal history records Traffic citations Intelligence/info reports External sources - Parolee info Probation info Jail roster/release dates Intelligence info from adjacent agencies Crime analysis information from adjacent agencies In his book, Gotlieb states, unequivocally, that “if current report forms and source documents do not meet this criteria

Data Collection Data must be: Standardized Usable Good quality Format facilitating collection Gottlieb states that is current report forms don’t meet these criteria, new ones should be developed. Documents designed in narrative format are usually inappropriate for CA due to (ASK WHY) discretion of officers. collection is cumbersome important information can be easily omitted Pros of forced choice: Eliminates need for PO to remember data elements Data standardization (pry tool vs physical force) Ease of collection Good Quality Timely (ideally reach cau w/in 24 hours) Reliable Accurate (subjective, I.e. “long” hair, age) Valid (watch for mis-classifications) Data to be collected/looked at :

Crime Reports Geographic factors Time factors Victim/target descriptors Property loss descriptors Physical evidence descriptors Solvability factors Specific MO factors

FI Reports Geographic factors Time factors Subject descriptors Subject vehicle descriptors Names of associates w/subject Reason(s) for FI

Arrest Reports Geographic factors Time factors Victim/target descriptors Recovered property descriptors Physical evidence descriptors Specific MO factors Suspect descriptors Suspect vehicle descriptors

Data Collation (aka Target Crimes) Burglary Robbery Auto theft Theft Fraud Sex crimes Agg. Assaults Homicide A review of existing police ca operations shows these crimes are most applicable to analysis.

Planning Considerations How many/what type of target crimes Frequent enough to produce recognizable patterns Does CAU have personnel/time necessary to build/maintain files Specific enough to be categorized Designed to facilitate retrieval Relationships established e.g, age ranges instead of young/old Between people, vehicles, events, etc. Old computer axiom “SISO”

Analysis Process . .looking for similarities and related facts. Two major types: Geographic concentration Specific/recurring MO patterns Geo refer to patterns id’d on similarity of crime type, and multiple occurrences in well-defined geographic areas. (aka crime pattern) MO id’d on basis of similarity of suspect and/or suspect vehicle descriptions or unique MO characteristics. Both can be manual (YUK) or automated. Manual being matrices and pin maps, automated being RDBS/RMS and GIS

Analysis Process(con’t) Analysis tools Maps Tally sheets Time-series charts/crime calendars Matrices Simple math tests

Data Search Techniques Residential Burglaries Geographic - 1 Time - 2 Property loss type - 2 Target type - 2 Physical evidence - 2 Specific M.O. - 2 Suspect vehicle - 3 Suspect - 3

Data Search Techniques Commercial Burglaries Geographic - 1 Specific M.O. - 1 Target - 1 Property loss type - 2 Physical evidence - 2 Time - 3 Suspect vehicle - 3 Suspect - 3

Data Search Techniques Strong-Arm Robberies Geographic - 1 Time - 1 Victim - 1 Property loss - 2 Physical evidence - 2 Specific M.O. - 2 Suspect - 3 Suspect vehicle - 3

Information Dissemination Products Distribution Product Development

Products Daily Bulletins Information summaries Field Interview summaries Crime pattern alert Wanted persons Suspect/known offender bulletins

Product Development Break down the data - NO LISTS! Attractive product, good graphics Quality over quantity Regular feedback from users

Distribution CAU conducted briefings Roll call Video tapes Moving marquee in squad room Bulletin board Officer notebooks Newspaper format

Evaluation and Feedback Mechanisms Trash can surveys User group User survey Keep record or results generated from products Keep log of number of special requests

Evaluation and Feedback(con’t) Issues Timeliness Credibility of the unit Accessibility to users Usefulness of products

Departmental Support Executive level support Field level support Executive - is the CAU integrated into the department’s goals & objectives? Field Training Marketing the unit Participation of user group Need to have knowledge of CAU for promotional process Policies and procedures