2011/2012 Winter and Spring Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Southern Plains Drought Assessment and Outlook Forum Fort Worth, TX November 29, 2011 Victor Murphy

Year to Year Precipitation Variability a Given in Texas Data Courtesy of SCIPP

Oklahoma has Seen an Entire Generation of Green! Data Courtesy of SCIPP

New Mexico has also seen a Generation of Green! Data Courtesy of SCIPP

But, Against this Backdrop of Wetness Lurks La Nina Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

Scatter Plots also Show Strong ENSO Correlation for Southern Plains Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

La Nina Composites Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

But, an Outlier for Drought Severity Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

La Nina: Déjà vu all Over Again

Moderate Strength La Nina Expected to Peak in a Month or Two.

NOAA/NCEP Coupled Forecast Series Model Output for Precipitation AMJ MJJ JJA FMA JFM

DJF Precipitation Forecast from NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Odds 3 to 1 in favor of drier than normal vs. wetter than normal.

MAM Precipitation Forecast from NWS Climate Prediction Center Odds 2 to 1 in favor of drier than normal vs. wetter than normal.

November-March are Individually Among the 5 Driest Months of the Year in Texas. Significant Drought Relief this Time of Year Very Unlikely during La Nina. Data Courtesy of SCIPP

Little Hope for Relief During the Winter in OK also. Data Courtesy of SCIPP

Recharge Window Even Smaller in NM. Data Courtesy of SCIPP

12 month Percent of Average Precipitation through the end of October 2011.

Through April, Drought Most Likely to Persist in southern NM and western TX.

Probability of Precipitation Required to end Current Drought Conditions in 6 Months.

New Mexico Spring Precipitation by Tercile 1.85” 2.55”

Texas Spring Rainfall by Tercile 6.5” 8.25”

Oklahoma Spring Precipitation by Tercile 9.5” 11.5”

Louisiana Spring Rainfall by Tercile

Temperature Trends During JJA During the past 100 Years Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling, ESRL

Does October-June Precipitation Foretell Expected Summer Rainfall? No. Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

Summer 2011 Forecast from CPC.

Takeaway Messages La Nina is returning for the cold season. Thus, through May, odds of below normal precipitation are 2 to 3 times greater than above normal. Any significant drought improvement not likely until April at earliest, when spring rainfall begins. Summer temperatures likely warmer than normal, but not likely to emulate the historic heat of last summer.

Questions?? Victor Murphy NWS Southern Region Climate Service Program Manager x 130

In General, Precipitation has been Increasing in the Southern Plains Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling, ESRL