Example #1 (Bransford & Johnson, 1973)  “The procedure is quite simple. First, you arrange things into different groups. Of course, one pile may be sufficient, depending on how much there is to do. If you have to go somewhere else due to lack of facilities, that is the next step; otherwise you are pretty well set.”  “washing clothes”

Mental Shortcuts A. Schemas  Schemas are cognitive structures representing a person’s knowledge about a concept  Schemas:  help us organize and remember information  give us expectations for what will happen next

Priming Stimuli A  Adventurous  Self-confident  Independent  Persistent

Priming Stimuli B  Reckless  Conceited  Aloof  Stubborn

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy  The process by which one’s expectations about a person eventually lead that person to behave in ways that confirm one’s expectations

Rosenthal and Jacobson (1968) Grade in School IQ Gain

Example

Snyder, Tanke, & Berscheid (1977)  Male participants led to believe they are speaking with an attractive or unattractive female.  Conversation recorded on two separate tapes.  One group of judges listened to the males’ tapes; another group listened to the females’ tapes.  DV: judges’ ratings of the males’ and females’ personalities.

Snyder et al. (1977) cont. Males’ Expectations: Expected to like “attractive” female more Males’ Behavior: More outgoing and warm with “attractive” female Females’ Behavior: More outgoing and warm in “attractive” condition

Mental Shortcuts, cont.  B. Heuristics: cognitive rules of thumb that allow people to think in ways that are quick and easy.

Which of the following are the more frequent causes of death in the United States?  1. Homicide or diabetes?  2. Flood or infectious hepatitis?  3. All accidents or strokes?  4. All cancers or heart disease?  5. Tornados or asthma?  6. Drowning or leukemia?  7. Lightning or appendicitis?  8. Motor vehicle accident or cancer of the digestive system?

The Availability Heuristic  Estimating the likelihood of events based on their availability in memory.

Problem 1a  In four pages of a novel (about 2,000 words), how many words would you expect to find that have the form _ _ _ _ _ n _ (seven-letter words that have “n” as their sixth letter)? Indicate your best estimate by circling one of the values below: 

Problem 1b  In four pages of a novel (about 2,000 words), how many words would you expect to find that have the form _ _ _ _ ing (seven-letter words that end with “ing”)? Indicate your best estimate by circling one of the values below: 

Problem 2  Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.  Rank order the following in terms of their probability that they are true. _Linda is a teacher in elementary school _Linda works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes _Linda is active in the feminist movement _Linda is a bank teller _Linda is an insurance salesman _Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement

The Representativeness Heuristic  Judging the likelihood of things in terms of how well they seem to match a prototype

 John P. was a quiet, mild-mannered high school student who was suspended from school six years ago when he was convicted of selling drugs to an undercover agent. He received a suspended sentence and was placed on three year’s probation. Since that time he has drifted from job to job, never exhibiting much interest of initiative. John is presently under police investigation again. John P.

 Please rank the following statements by the probability that they will be among the results of the investigation. Use 1 for the most probable statement, 2 for the second, etc. _John killed his employer _John is a petty thief _John is a child molester _John is involved in interstate transportation of stolen cars

 Please rank the following statements by the probability that they will be among the results of the investigation. Use 1 for the most probable statement, 2 for the second, etc. _John killed his employer to keep him from telling the police about John’s drug-dealing _John is a petty thief _John is a child molester _John is involved in interstate transportation of stolen cars

A newly hired engineer for a medical laser firm in San Diego had four years of experience in excimer lasers and excellent qualifications. When asked to estimate the starting salary for this employee, my administrative assistant (knowing very little about the profession or the industry) guessed an annual salary—excluding benefits—of $45,000. What is your estimate?

A newly hired engineer for a medical laser firm in San Diego had four years of experience in excimer lasers and excellent qualifications. When asked to estimate the starting salary for this employee, my administrative assistant (knowing very little about the profession or the industry) guessed an annual salary—excluding benefits—of $145,000. What is your estimate?

The Anchoring Heuristic When making a prediction, people sometimes start with a beginning reference point (or anchor) and then adjust it to reach a final decision. Problem: they adjust insufficiently.  This helps explain:  FAE  False Consensus