Evidence and Liberty: The Promise of Experimental Criminology Lawrence W. Sherman Wolfson Professor of Criminology Director Jerry Lee Centre for Experimental.

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Presentation transcript:

Evidence and Liberty: The Promise of Experimental Criminology Lawrence W. Sherman Wolfson Professor of Criminology Director Jerry Lee Centre for Experimental Criminology Institute of Criminology Cambridge University

OUR PURPOSE: Jerry Lee Centre of Experimental Criminology Advancement of human liberty on the basis of Experimental Evidence

Evidence and Liberty “You will know the truth, and the truth will set you free” John 8:32.

1781: “Property” Overboard?

The 1785 Latin Prize Anne Liceat Invitos in Servitutem Dare? (“Is it lawful to make slaves of others against their will?“)

Evidence Giant Thomas Clarkson

Wade’s Mill, Herts.

Sugar Boycott 1791

Abu Ghraib Prison

7 RCT Tests of A Drug on Infant Mortality

From Joanna Shapland, et al, 2008, p. 27 Effects of Restorative Justice on Re-Conviction

Did Program Cause Crime Drop?

Randomized Controlled Trial RCT: COMPARISON or NET difference

From Joanna Shapland, et al, 2008, p. 27 Effects of Restorative Justice on Re-Conviction

Early Release From Prison

Fortune-Tellers

“Not Experimentally Proven”

Crown Court Sentences “Not Experimentally Proven”

Three Hardest Words I Don’t Know….

Evidence Into action Bottom-up Discretion Top-Down Guidance

Bottom-Up Discretion

Top-Down Guidance

From Joanna Shapland, et al, 2008, p. 27 Effects of Restorative Justice on Re-Conviction

List of Studies Included Offender N 1. Australia RISE Canberra <30 years violence Australia RISE Canberra juvenile personal property Australia RISE Canberra juvenile shoplifting Australia RISE Canberra Driving Under Influence US Indianapolis juvenile property/violence US Bethlehem PA juvenile property US Bethlehem PA juvenile violence UK Northumbria juvenile property/violence UK Northumbria adult property UK Northumbria adult assault UK London robbery UK London burglary UK Thames Valley violence – probation UK Thames Valley violence – prison 94 Total offender N = 3,120

Conventional Wisdom RJ is best for less serious crime “Inappropriate” for violence RJ is best for children (under 18) “Inappropriate” for Adults

RESULTS 2-Year Reconvictions (Standard UK criterion for success) Frequency Prevalence Cost

First Question In general, what effect does Face-to-face RJ meetings have on frequency of reconvictions, across different points of criminal justice process with personal victims intended to be there? ANSWER: 9 out of 10 tests show less crime

Personal Victims: % Change* in Reconviction Frequency *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

Question 2 What Effect Does RJ have on Frequency of Reconviction All tests 10 with victims present 2 not victims present Answer: 10 out of 12 show less frequency Not one increase in UK (Australia only)

Percent Change* in the Frequency of Reconviction *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

Question 3 What effect does Face-to-face RJ have on Frequency of Reconviction In Violent Crime Experiments Youth and Adult Combined Answer: 5 out of 5 violence tests show less crime

Percent Change* in the Frequency of Reconviction – Violence Exps *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

Question 4 What Effect Does RJ have on Frequency of Reconviction on Property Crime Offenders Youth and Adult Combined Answer: 3 out 4 tests show less crime Effects not as big, or as prevalent, as for violence RJ WORKS BETTER FOR MORE SERIOUS CRIME

Percent Change* in the Frequency of Reconviction – Property Exps *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

Question 5 What Effect Does Face-to-Face RJ Have on Youth Crime Property and Violent US, UK, Australia? Answer: 3 out of 4 tests show less crime

Percent Change* in the Frequency of Reconviction – Youth Exps *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

Question 6 What Effect Does Face-to-Face RJ Have on Adult Crime Property and Violent US, UK, Australia? Answer: 6 out of 6 tests on adults = less crime Effects bigger than for juveniles

Percent Change* in the Frequency of Reconviction – Adult Exps *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

Question 7 Does Face-to-Face RJ Reduce frequency of reconviction more when developers do their own evaluation, or when someone else evaluates the RJ conferences in a randomized trial? ANSWER: Bigger effects with independent evaluators!

Percent Change* Reconviction Frequency—Our Own Tests *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

Change* Reconviction Frequency— Independent Evaluators *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

Yes, Minister --All policies decided at Highest levels --More politics --Less evidence?

A NICE Approach National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence

NICE Hypertension Guidance

Hot Spots of Crime (Density Distribution of Violent Offenses in Tokyo)

A NICE, NPIA (?) Approach National Policing Improvement Agency

Koper Curve

Algorithm for Hot Spot Patrol 1.Define Hot Spots 2.Identify Locations 3.Add Extra Police Patrols 4.Make All Patrols Unpredictable 5.Stay minutes Only 6.Add extra patrol if crime persists

Evidence-Based Policing

From Evidence to Liberty 1.Identify key questions

From Evidence to Liberty 1.Identify key questions 2. Formulate testable hypotheses

From Evidence to Liberty 1.Identify key questions 2. Formulate testable hypotheses 3. Conduct randomized experiments

From Evidence to Liberty 1.Identify key questions 2. Formulate testable hypotheses 3. Conduct randomized experiments 4. Conduct quasi-experiments

From Evidence to Liberty 1.Identify key questions 2. Formulate testable hypotheses 3. Conduct randomized experiments 4. Conduct quasi-experiments 5. Identify all good evidence

From Evidence to Liberty 6. Synthesize in META-ANALYSIS

From Evidence to Liberty 6. Synthesize in META-ANALYSIS 7. Present to small expert groups

From Evidence to Liberty 6. Synthesize in META-ANALYSIS 7. Present research to small expert groups 8. Develop succinct guidance

From Evidence to Liberty 6. Synthesize in META-ANALYSIS 7. Present research to small expert groups 8. Develop succinct guidance 9. Communicate or promulgate the guidance

From Evidence to Liberty 6. Synthesize in META-ANALYSIS 7. Present research to small expert groups 8. Develop succinct guidance 9. Communicate or promulgate the guidance 10. Test Methods for compliance

Prospective Meta-Analysis By A “REX-Net”: Randomized Experiments Network

The Promise of Experimental Criminology The advancement of human liberty on the basis of experimental evidence

Evidence and Liberty: The Promise of Experimental Criminology Lawrence W. Sherman Wolfson Professor of Criminology Director Jerry Lee Centre for Experimental Criminology Institute of Criminology Cambridge University