Multi-Party Politics Barriers to Third Parties in US: –See Duverger’s Law (last week) –Assembly Size (US Congress tiny) –Ballot Access Laws Rules governing territory on Nov. ballot USSC: states have ‘legitimate interest in state laws protecting two party system’

Assembly Size

US = 700K per district...Mexico 200K, France 100K, UK 100K More districts = fewer voters per district Fewer voters per district = more homogenous If minor party supporters geographically concentrated

Multi-party politics in US Ballot Access Laws Set by State legislators –Catch 22 –Minor party must post X% in statewide race to have access for their candidate in next election 1% some places,

Ballot Access Rules & # of Minor Parties/Candidates AKIDMTORWA US Senate Governor Number a 45 b 3 Vote share to qualify for official / major status3%3%<5%*5%^5% Petition for new1%2% <5%1.5% 100 voters party candidates at convention

Ballot Access US Presidential Elections If no existing access, petition Minor party vs. ‘independent’ Varies greatly by state –1000 signatures - 10% of votes cast in last election –CA = 158,000 sigs; NC 60,000; GA 50,000

Ballot Access How get on for 2012 –Start NOW (if allowed); w/ 2010 race –Use ballot slots of existing parties –Run in different states under different party names (Constitution Party, Taxpayer Party, Libertarian Party) –Run in some states as independent, some as under party line

Ballot Access US President –Nader (46 states) Nader 0.5% –Libertarians (45 states) Bob Barr 0.4% –Constitution (37 states) Baldwin 0.15% –Greens (32 states) McKinney 0.12% –Socialism & Liberation (12 States) –Socialist Workers (10 states) –Socialist (8 States) –AIP (3 states) Alan Keyes 0.04% TOTAL %

Support for Multi-party politics In United States –keep 2 party system38% –no parties28% –more parties34%

Support for Multi Party Politics Support PR for US Congress? –US44% yes, 49% no –WA56% yes, 40% no Who? –independents who ‘lean’ D or R –not strong liberal Ds –not strong liberal Rs –Men –people who distrust government

Did Nader Elect Bush 2000 US Presidential election Gore won natl pop. vote by 500,000 Lost FL by 500 votes, lost electoral college ( ) Nader 90,000 votes in FL Vote stealing vs. mobilization

Did Nader Elect Bush Can we assume that minor party voters would have supported either major party candidate? Can we assume minor party voters would have voted?

Did Nader Elect Bush? In a two-way race (2000 polls) Of Nader voters, if just 2, who?: –Gore47.7% –Bush21.9% –Abstain30.5% –42% of Buchanan voters would have abstained

Did Nader Elect Bush did Nader elect Bush in 2000? = did Wallace elect Nixon 1968? did Anderson elect Carter 1980? did Perot elect Clinton 1992? did Perot elect Clinton in 1996? vote stealing vs. mobilization?

Multi-Party Politics in US Minor candidates ‘crowd’ Presidential ballots – % – % – % – % – % – % – % – %

Multi-party politics in US Minor parties as ‘spoilers?’ What to do?

Prospects for a “third” party For multi-party politics in US Dim, but... –regional divisions emerge –major party splits –Institutional change at state or local level? via ballot measures?