Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Transportation Modeling in Oregon: Overview of ODOT Statewide Integrated Model Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Becky Knudson ODOT Transportation Planning Analysis Unit May 11th, 2006

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Overview Intro Description of Statewide Model Model Applications Recap and Questions

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Introduction Transportation modeling in Oregon is a collaborative effort among many jurisdictions and public agencies –1994 ODOT started the Statewide Model Improvement Program, established a steering committee –Mission to coordinate modeling efforts of state, regional and local agencies, promote development and use of state-of-the-art transportation modeling in Oregon

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Introduction cont’d Program was needed because prevalent modeling methods: –Could not provide information needed to meet state and federal mandates –Or answer questions being asked by the public and policy-makers Decision-makers needed: –Estimates of effects of policies –Tools to measure performance

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Statewide Model

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Statewide Model: What is it? Integrated model linking the economy, land use, and transportation elements across state Statewide model based on production activity - inputs and outputs, and commodity flow Simulates land use and travel behavior mathematically using several computer programs Provides a dynamic, price sensitive representation of state economic activity

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Statewide Model: How is it Useful? Provides objective and unbiased comparison between alternative policies Reveals trade-offs between different policies Reveals synergies gained by combining policies in different ways Integrated analysis does not dictate policy, it provides information on how policies will likely play out

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Information Produced Statewide model designed to reveal differences in terms of forecast magnitude and direction Forecast change in employment, trips, vehicle-miles-of-travel, economic production levels NOT designed to predict outcomes, forecast values, or prescribe solutions

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Using the Statewide Model We Have Learned: The types of transportation improvements and where they are made affects where jobs and people locate Different tax structures affect where firms locate and where workers live The supply of land affects the price of land, in turn affecting where firms and households locate.

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Application Example: Bridge Limitations Study 2002

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 The Problem Over 500 Oregon bridges identified as cracking 2001 –Nearly 25% of Oregon bridges are beyond their 50 year expected life Cost to repair or replace bridges $4.7 billion Statewide Model used to evaluate alternative bridge investment strategies Final Investment strategy based on –Bridge costs –Economic costs –Community & regional Impacts

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Alternative Solutions No additional bridge investment would lead to –More trucks on road –Higher maintenance & preservation costs –Less future employment growth from higher transport costs Fix interstate bridges: –Ignores routes connecting to interstate system –Benefits state economy, but harms coastal and central region of state

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Best Bridge Strategy One deficient bridge impedes the entire corridor, ODOT shifted from initial “worst- first” strategy to corridor approach Improve routes parallel to the interstates to accommodate detoured heavy freight loads The order in which roads are opened to heavy loads affects regional economy and livability

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 ODOT Recommendation $2.5B, initial 10-year strategy to $4.7B bridge problem Address detour routes before interstate construction Over 90 percent of the statewide economic benefit of repairing all bridges gained for nearly half the cost

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 STAGE 1 $92M, 48 bridges

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 STAGE 2 $657M, 161 bridges

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 STAGE 3 $567M, 147 bridges

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 STAGE 4 $234M, 94 bridges

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 STAGE 5 $116M, 46 bridges

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Application Example: Central Oregon

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 LegislativeDirective: Study Legislative Directive: Study New Freeway in Eastern Oregon The model was used to evaluate the potential for a new freeway to divert development and traffic from Western Oregon to Central and Eastern Oregon.

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Application Example: Newberg-Dundee Bypass

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 The model was used to examine the potential effects of a bypass on growth of population, jobs and travel. Analysis was part of an Environmental Impact Study for the proposed bypass which resides on a major recreation route and commuter- shed of Portland Newberg-Dundee: Highway Bypass Induced Growth Analysis

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Modeling/Analysis Findings A bypass: –Stimulates economic growth in McMinnville –Supports greater travel for all purposes –Has minimal effects on smaller communities in Yamhill County Commuter effects vary with a bypass: –Increased commuting by residents in McMinnville vicinity to Portland –Increased share of Newberg area commuters to McMinnville (lower share to Portland)

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Recap Integrated analysis blends the features of land use, transportation and economic activity together to represent the interactions and reveal net effects of change Statewide model based on production activity, commodity flow, inputs and outputs Valuable tool for policy makers to evaluate alternative policy choices.

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitPNREC 2006 Questions Becky Knudson Senior Transportation Analyst Transportation Planning Analysis Unit th St NE, Suite 2 Salem, OR (503)