Report on good practice/policy workshop Connecting outcomes with policy needs, options and implications Professor Ron Johnston Australian Centre for Innovation University of Sydney The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes ] “The recent onset of crises and challenges ranging from climate change, financial and economic downturns, to security threats highlight a rising need to incorporate more forward-looking approaches into the decision- making processes of public and private organisations and stakeholders all around the world.” – Seville FTA Conference 2008

Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes ] Key Questions What kind of emerging issues should FTA seek to address? Which actors should be engaged? What actions should or could be taken What is the possibility and role of innovation What are the key policy messages?

Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes ] The Process Eleven policy-relevant posters selected, from experience of 8 countries and 2 international organisations Policy-makers and experts invited to provide the audience for poster presentations Two groups, facilitated by Ahti Salo and Jack Smith Informal style, speaking to poster to a small group (12- 15) Very active, exploratory discussion between presenter and policy makers – 20 mins per poster Concluding discussion to identify key issues and findings

Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes ] Key Issues and Findings This process allows for a much higher level of engagement, interaction, exploration of issues and mutual learning than the more traditional multiple paper presentation and discussion model

Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes ] Key criteria for effective policy engagement Deep knowledge in the field ‘Roadmap thinking’ Quality Imagination and an open-minded attitude “Idea recycling modesty” – some ideas will fail, but be used later Ownership Antonio Correia de Campos

Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes ] FTA is Dynamic The world has changed and so must FTA FTA should never aim to be ‘finalised’, or even a mature discipline – it needs to be a continuing learning and evolving work-in-progress FTA has been reframed in just the past two years – from a contributor to evidence-based policy to an emphasis on the construction, analysis and interpretation of narratives

Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes ] From expert–based projects to continuous crowd-based processes Growing use of horizon scanning, weak signals, wildcards, ‘crowd-sourcing’ as portals to the future This creates the need for analysis of how narratives are constructed and interpreted, and recognition that the power associated with the adoption of a narrative is attracting unethical/criminal activity eg ‘sock-puppets’ Continuous, iterative processes rather than one-off projects The Ollila orchestration model

with orchestration capability From traditional large enterprise to extended enterprise Innovation networks and ecosystems enable new ways of knowledge creation and utilization Core Partners Core Demand orchestration Innovation orchestration Architecture orchestration Supply orchestration Demand orchestration Architecture orchestration Supply orchestration Innovation orchestration Demand orchestration Architecture orchestration Supply orchestration Innovation orchestration Demand orchestration Architecture orchestration Supply orchestration Innovation orchestration Demand orchestration Architecture orchestration Supply orchestration Innovation orchestration Demand orchestration Architecture orchestration Supply orchestration Innovation orchestration Demand orchestration Architecture orchestration Supply orchestration Innovation orchestration Demand orchestration Architecture orchestration Supply orchestration Innovation orchestration Demand orchestration Architecture orchestration Supply orchestration Innovation orchestration

Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes ] From expert–based projects to continuous crowd-based processes Growing use of horizon scanning, weak signals, wildcards, ‘crowd-sourcing’ as portals to the future This creates the need for analysis of how narratives are constructed and interpreted, and recognition that the power associated with the adoption of a narrative is attracting unethical/criminal activity eg ‘sock-puppets’ Continuous, iterative processes rather than one-off projects (which requires FTA capacity) The Ollila orchestration model

Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes ] From expert–based projects to continuous crowd-based processes The role of expectations in techno-economic evolution Creating ownership of roadmaps – a bottom-up process - a strategy and a communication tool at many levels FTA embedded as a standard planning tool – the demise of foresight experts? (and Seville FTA conferences)

Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes ] Tensions Between mass participation/open processes and quality control Between a rational/objective stance (impossible) and an engaged activist stance (dangerous) Between the seductions of fashionability and the obscurity of pedantic precision