Electoral Laws Under Extreme Conditions: The Case of Africa David Backer Ken Kollman University of Michigan presented at Democracy Seminar Series Electoral Institute of Southern Africa January 21, 2003

Agenda  Project Origins  Aims  Sources  Data  Missing Data  Measures  Elections in Africa  Comparative Analysis  Discussion  Looking Ahead

Project Origins  Chhibber & Kollman (APSA 1998) Party aggregation, i.e., relationship between local and national party system Dependent variable: effective number of political parties Principal explanatory factor: distribution of fiscal resources across levels of government Data from U.S. and India  Chhibber & Kollman (forthcoming 2003) Addition of data from U.K. and Canada

Aims  Explore applications of Kollman & Chhibber to African cases  Gather details on electoral systems and party systems in Africa  Build archive of African electoral data  Assess impact of political environment on electoral outcomes, with reference to Africa

Sources  Books Elections in Africa (Nohlen, Krennerich & Thibaut 1999) Democracy and Political Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (Wiseman 1990) Politics of Opposition in Contemporary Africa (Olukoshi 1998) Electoral Territoriality in Southern Africa (Rule 2000) Voting for Democracy (Daniel, Southall & Szeftel 1999) Electoral Systems and Democratization in Southern Africa (Reynolds 1999) Rise and Fall of Nigeria’s Second Republic (Falola & Ihonvbere 1985) African Democracies and African Politics (Salih 2001)

Sources  Official Sources Electoral Commissions Government Websites  On-Line Resources Adam Carr’s Election Archives Electionworld.org Electionguide.org Electionresources.org Democraf.com IPU IFES  Organizations EISA  Personal Collections Judy Geist (Kenya)

Data  National 47 countries 299 elections Seat allocations, by party Votes, by party (where possible) Turnout (where possible)  District-Level 9 countries 30 elections 3,415 contests Votes by candidate (with party affiliation) Turnout (where possible)

District-Level Data Burkina Faso 1997 The Gambia 1997 Zambia Zimbabwe Lesotho Botswana 1969, 1974, , 1989, Ghana Kenya 1963, 1969, 1974, , 1988, , 2002 Malawi 1999

Missing Data  National Seats: 0 countries, 0 elections Votes: 24 countries, 41 elections  District-Level (Single-Member) 20 countries 60 elections 9,226 contests  District-Level (Other Electoral Systems) 13 countries 56 elections ???? contests

Missing District-Level Data Burundi 1965 Central African Republic 1993, 1998 Comoros 1972, 1992, 1993, 1996 Congo 1992, 1993, 2002 Ethiopia 1995, 2000 Gabon 1990, 1996, 2001 Gambia 1966, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1992 Ghana 1956, 1969, 1979 Lesotho 1965, 1970 Malawi 1994 Mali 2002 Nigeria 1959, 1964, 1979, 1983, 1992, 1999 Sierra Leone 1962, 1967, 1973, 1977 Sudan 1953, 1958, 1965, 1968, 1986, 1996, 2000 Swaziland 1993, 1998 Tanzania 1995, 2000 Togo 1958, 1994, 1999, 2002 Uganda 1962, 1980, 1996, 2001 Zambia 1964, 1968 Zimbabwe 1985

Measures  Vote and seat shares  Effective number of political parties j = jth district i = ith party d = number of districts n = number of parties receiving votes  SF ratio: 3 rd place votes vs. 2 nd place votes DistrictDistrict Average National

Effective Number of Political Parties

Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa - Choice of Electoral System - 47 Countries 22 Single-Member 8 Single- and Multi-Member 5 Mixed 20 PR 21 Multi-Member Note: 22 countries have changed their electoral system; 7 have employed three systems.

Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa - Opportunities for Competition - 47 Countries 299 Elections 183 Multi-Party 109 One-Party 7 No Parties

Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa - Multi-Party Elections by System - 47 Countries 183 Multi-Party Elections 81 Single-Member 25 Single- and Multi-Member 14 Mixed 12 PR 51 Multi-Member

Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa - One-Party Elections by System - 32 Countries 109 One-Party Elections 29 Single-Member 12 Single- and Multi-Member 3 Mixed 44 PR 21 Multi-Member

Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa - Overview of Multi-Party Contests -

Impact of Political Environment on Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa

Impact of Political Environment on Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa - Multi-Party Elections -

Elections and the Political Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa Note: Averages of Freedom House scores, which range from 1 (best) to 7 (worst).

Single-Member District Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa - Competitiveness -

Single-Member District Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa - Party Systems -

Single-Member District Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa - Third Party Strength -

Single-Member District Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa - Winners & the Local Party System -

Single-Member District Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa - Third Parties & the Local Party System -

Comparative Analysis - Local Party Systems Around the World -

Comparative Analysis - Local Party Systems in Africa -

 Conventional image of African elections ban on opposition parties boycotts suppression of political activity single-party dominance attenuated competition  Underappreciated phenomena heterogeneity of outcomes domination + fragmentation within local party systems Discussion

 Winner-take-all electoral systems (i.e., single-member districts) not necessarily less favorable to competition highest share of votes for opposition parties similar share of seats for opposition parties, despite premium to top party  Inverse-U relationship between political environment and national party system  Patterns of electoral results in Africa not so different from those in established democracies, except with respect to the variability of outcomes Discussion

 Data compilation of missing historical results updating with latest results on an ongoing basis standardize reporting by individual countries – timely – detailed – complete – accessible – user-friendly format  Utilization Issues effective dissemination  widely available public resource relevance to policy-making and research Looking Ahead

 Audiences government officials international policy-makers academics think tanks NGOs  Research Issues influence of electoral systems on political competition nature and evolution of party systems impact of political environment on electoral outcomes comparative analysis – within Africa – Africa vs. developing democracies – Africa vs. established democracies Looking Ahead