Simulations for a Houston ozone episode & the NYC DHS MSG tracer study with an urbanized MM5 R. Bornstein*, R. Balmori E. Weinroth, H. Taha San Jose State University San Jose, CA Presented at AMS Urban-Coastal Conference Sept 2007

Acknowledgements Data Data S. Burian, J. Ching S. Burian, J. Ching TCEQ, USFS TCEQ, USFS D. Byun D. Byun Urbanization scheme of Urbanization scheme of A. Martilli A. Martilli S. Dupont S. Dupont Funds: Funds: Past: NSF, USAID, DHS Past: NSF, USAID, DHS Pending: DTRA Pending: DTRA

OUTLINE Introduction Introduction Current uMM5 Applications Current uMM5 Applications Houston ozone Houston ozone NYC tracer study NYC tracer study Future: uWRF Future: uWRF Conclusion Conclusion

Recent Meso-met Model Urbanization Need to urbanize momentum, thermo, & TKE Need to urbanize momentum, thermo, & TKE surface & SfcBL diagnostic-Eqs. surface & SfcBL diagnostic-Eqs. PBL prognostic-Eqs. PBL prognostic-Eqs. Start: canopy model (Yamada 1982) Start: veg-canopy model (Yamada 1982) Veg-param replaced with GIS/RS urban-param/data Veg-param replaced with GIS/RS urban-param/data Brown and Williams (1998) Brown and Williams (1998) Masson (2000) Masson (2000) Martilli et al. (2001) in TVM/URBMET Martilli et al. (2001) in TVM/URBMET Dupont, Ching, et al. (2003) in EPA/MM5 Dupont, Ching, et al. (2003) in EPA/MM5 Taha et al. (2005), Balmori et al. (2006) in uMM5: Taha et al. (2005), Balmori et al. (2006) in uMM5: detailed input urban-parameters as f(x,y) for our two applications

uMM5 for Houston Goal: Accurate urban/rural temps & winds for Aug 2000 O 3 episode via uMM5 uMM5 Houston LU/LC & urban morphology parameters from S. Burian Houston LU/LC & urban morphology parameters from S. Burian TexAQS2000 field-study data TexAQS2000 field-study data USFS urban-reforestation scenarios  USFS urban-reforestation scenarios  UHI & O 3 changes

uMM5 Simulation period: August 2000 Model configuration Model configuration 5 domains: 108, 36, 12, 4, 1 km 5 domains: 108, 36, 12, 4, 1 km (x, y) grid points: (x, y) grid points: (43x53, 55x55, 100x100, 136x151, 133x141 full-  levels: 29 in D 1-4 & 49 in D-5; lowest ½  level=7 m full-  levels: 29 in D 1-4 & 49 in D-5; lowest ½  level=7 m 2-way feedback in D way feedback in D 1-4 Parameterizations/physics options Parameterizations/physics options > Grell cumulus (D 1-2)> ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4) > Grell cumulus (D 1-2)> ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4) > Gayno-Seaman PBL (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, > Gayno-Seaman PBL (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, > urbanization module NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative cooling > urbanization module NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative cooling Inputs Inputs > NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > Burian morphology from LIDAR building-data in D-5 > Burian morphology from LIDAR building-data in D-5 > LU/LC modifications (from Byun)

 GC influences: small  Air-mass movement: First along-shore (to west) from: flow along N-edge of cold-core atm-low  Then: Ship-Channel to Houston by Bay Breeze & UHI-convergence  max O 3  Finally: to NW of Houston by Gulf Breeze meso O 3 transport-patterns: D-5: UTC episode-day obs of meso O 3 transport-patterns: influences of sea breeze & UHI-convergence

Episode-day Synoptics: 8/25, 12 UTC (08 DST) H H 700 hPa Surface 700 hPa & sfc GC H’s: at weakest (no gradient) over Texas  meso-scale forcing (sea breeze & UHI convergence) dominates

MM5: episode day, 3 PM ( all graphs: flag = 5 m/s) > D–1: reproduces weak GC p-grad & flow > D-2: weak coastal-L > D-3: well-formed L  along-shore V L D-1 D-2 D-3

Domain 4 (3 PM) : cyclone off-Houston only on O 3 -day (25 th ) L L  Episode day day

Urbanized Domain 5: near-sfc 3-PM V, 4-days  Episode day day Cold-L Hot Cool

Along-shore flow, 8/25 (episode day): obs at 1500 UTC vs uMM5 (D-5) at 2000 UTC Tx2000 obs HGA obs D-5 (red box) uMM5 captured HGA obs of along-shore flow (from SST- BC cold-low) HGA Kriege uMM5 C

1 km uMM5 Houston UHI: 8 PM, 21 Aug Upper L: MM5 UHI (2.0 K) Upper L: MM5 UHI (2.0 K) Upper R: uMM5 UHI (3.5 K) Upper R: uMM5 UHI (3.5 K) Lower L: (uMM5-MM5) UHI Lower L: (uMM5-MM5) UHI LU/LCerror

8/23 Daytime 2-m UHI: obs vs uMM5 (D-5) H OBS: 1 PM uMM5: 3 PM Cold UHI

UHI-Induced Convergence: obs vs. uMM5 OBSERVEDuMM5 C C C C

Base-case (current) veg-cover (0.1’s)  urban min (red)  rural max (green) Modeled changes of veg-cover (0.01’s) > Urban-reforestation (green) > Rural-deforestation (purple) min max increase

Run 12 (urban reforestation) minus Run 10 (base case): 2-m ∆T at 4 PM reforested central urban-area cools & surrounding deforested rural-areas warm

D UHI(t) for Base-case minus Runs D UHI(t) for Base-case minus Runs U1 sea Ru U2 UHI = Average-T in urban-box minus that in rural-box UHI = Average-T in urban-box minus that in rural-box Runs 15-18: different urban re-forestation scenarios Runs 15-18: different urban re-forestation scenarios D UHI=Run-17 UHI minus Run-13 UHI (max effect) D UHI=Run-17 UHI minus Run-13 UHI (max effect) Reduced UHI  lower max-O 3 (not shown)  Reduced UHI  lower max-O 3 (not shown)  EPA emission-reduction credits  $ saved  Max-impact of –0.9 K of a 3.5 K Noon-UHI, of which 1.5 K was from uMM5

uMM5 for NYC DHS MSG UDS Goal: Accurate urban/rural temps & winds for for 9-15 March ‘05 tracer releases via uMM5 uMM5 NYC LU/LC & urban morphology NYC LU/LC & urban morphology parameters from S. Burian DHS MSG UDS field-study data DHS MSG UDS field-study data met met tracer tracer

 GC influences during tracer periods  Midtown: weak, slow synoptic speed  MSG: strong, fast synoptic speeds  Sea breeze & UHI influences  Midtown: strong, with UHI-convergence  MSG: weak  Urban-barrier influences  Midtown: weak  MSG: strong, with urban barrier divergence  Modeling studies by  Midtown: Pullen, Holt, Thompson at NRL  MSG: This presentation Obs of UDS Tracer Periods

NYC uMM5 DHS UDS MSG: 9-15 March ‘05 Model configuration Model configuration 4 domains: 36, 12, 4, 1 km 4 domains: 36, 12, 4, 1 km (x, y) grid points: (x, y) grid points: (110x85, 91x91, 91x91, 33x33) full-  levels: 29 in D 1-3 & 48 in D-4; lowest ½  level=7 m full-  levels: 29 in D 1-3 & 48 in D-4; lowest ½  level=7 m 2-way feedback in D way feedback in D 1-3 Parameterizations/physics options Parameterizations/physics options > Grell cumulus (D 1-2)> ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4) > Grell cumulus (D 1-2)> ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4) > Gayno-Seaman PBL (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, > Gayno-Seaman PBL (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, > urbanization module NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative cooling > urbanization module NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative cooling Inputs Inputs > NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > Burian morphology from LIDAR building-data in D-5 > Burian morphology from LIDAR building-data in D-5 > LU/LC modifications (from Byun)

D04 D03 4 MM5 domains

1900 UTC, 3/11/05, MM5 Domain 3: Sfc-T(K) & synoptic wave-cyclone V ( flag = 5 m/s) W W C

Concurrent Domain-4 uMM5 Streamlines z = 60 m AGL & A-B is plane of following x-section A B Slowing & divergence Downwind convergence

Concurrent Domain-4 uMM5 Streamlines & Speed (purple lines, m/s) at 60 (left) & 700 (right) m AGL Note z-cells from urban-induced con- & divergence A 60 m 700 m B A B 1000 m

Concurrent Domain 4 uMM5 Speed (m/s, where flag = 5 m/s) at 60 (left) & 700 (right) m AGL Note large urban z  speed-min downwind of Manhattan & Brooklyn Note large urban z 0  speed-min downwind of Manhattan & Brooklyn (this is high-speed, non-UHI period) slow slow fast fast

Concurrent domain 4 uMM5 Div (1/s) & Wind (flag = 5 m/s) at 60 (left) & 700 (right) m AGL Note convergence (C) over Manhattan, as roughness slows wind Also compensating divergence (D) around convergence area C D C D D D

Concurrent Domain4- uMM5: w (m/s) & V (m/s) at 60 (left) and 700 (right) m AGL Note up-motion (+) over Manhattan conv-area (of previous fig) & compensating down-motion (-) in div-area around Manhattan

Pending: uWRF uWRF with NCAR (F. Chen) for DTRA uWRF with NCAR (F. Chen) for DTRA Martilli-Dupont urbanization Martilli-Dupont urbanization Burian lidar urban-parameters as f(x,y) Burian lidar urban-parameters as f(x,y) Taha stat-generalization of Burian urban- parameters for areas w/o lidar-obs Taha stat-generalization of Burian urban- parameters for areas w/o lidar-obs Freedman PBL-turbulence scheme Freedman PBL-turbulence scheme Zilitinkevich SfcBL stability-functions, z, etc. Zilitinkevich SfcBL stability-functions, z oh, etc. Steyn diagnostic h(x,y) scheme Steyn diagnostic h i (x,y) scheme SST (x,y,t) from J. Pullen SST (x,y,t) from J. Pullen

SJSU MM5 or uMM5 met output fields are available for ozone (design-day cases) and/or 4-D BCs for CFD &/or quick ER models for SFBA (MM5) SFBA (MM5) Houston (uMM5) Houston (uMM5) NYC (uMM5) NYC (uMM5) LA Basin (MM5) LA Basin (MM5) Israel (RAMS & MM5) Israel (RAMS & MM5)

Thanks Questions?