Still the biggest factor in vote choice

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Presentation transcript:

Still the biggest factor in vote choice Partisanship Still the biggest factor in vote choice

Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior. Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice

The Social-Psychological Model (Michigan Model This Not-This

The Michigan Model The Funnel of Causality The events leading up to vote day Socialization and temporal forces Party Identification remains the most important part of the model

Party Identification The same as Partisanship The Single Best Predictor for how people vote

What is Party Identification The Concept of party identification When do we get it

The Development of Party ID How We Use it How it evolves throughout our lives The importance of strong partisans

Strong partisans hold more extreme positions

Determining Party ID We Ask People Are you a R or D or Something Else If you are an R or D or you strong or weak If you are an Independent do you lean R or D.

Party Identification

Measuring Party ID through the Normal Vote The Normal Vote is when people vote 100% along straight Party lines What might cause deviations?

Democratic Normal Vote

Republican Normal Vote

The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008 Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain There are more Democrats in the electorate Obama wins

2008 Vote by Party ID

Change in party identification

Change in Partisanship Many things will cause deviations in our partisanship Major Changes are called Realignments

Why Partisanship Changes Generational Replacement Period effects Life Cycle Events

How We Change We go from an old party to independent to a new party We become more independent Often We just become more partisan

What about independents Those Wacky Fellows What about independents

Two Perceptions of Independents Wise people who are logical, rational and vote the man not the party Apolitical morons who do not know anything about politics.

Independents Matter

Why they Matter 1/3 of the electorate Necessary to get their support Often Break for the Wining Candidate 2004 vs. 2008

The Independent Leaner Claim to be independent Actually lean to one of the parties Have the same behavior as partisans

The Pure Independent The growth in Independents is not from this group. Only 7-8% of the population Less likely to vote and more likely to vote for third party candidates.

Very Few Have No Preference