Making Climate Science Relevant to Decisionmaking Richard H. Moss, Ph.D. Climate Change Science Program Office (Director) and Joint Global Change Research Institute

Overview of This Presentation Definitions and motivation for CCSP “decision support” Key science-related “policy” issues: –What is the current state of the climate system? –How are human activities affecting climate? –How might climate evolve in the future? –What impacts might we expect from climate change? How are climate research and technology development supported in the United States? CCSP decision support structure and challenges

Decision Support: Definition of Key Terms Decision support resources –Analyses, methods, models/data, operational services, and other tools that provide useful information to address policy, resource management, and other issues Policy decisions –Decisions made in government settings that result in laws, regulations, and other public actions Adaptive management decisions –Operational decisions for infrastructure, resources, and response mechanisms (e.g., health alerts) Scenario –A coherent statement of a potential future situation that can serve as an input to more detailed analysis or modeling

Motivation for Decision Support The Global Change Research Act (1990) directs the USGCRP to “produce information readily usable by policymakers attempting to formulate effective strategies for preventing, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of global change,” and to undertake periodic assessments President Bush, citing the NRC’s 2001 study (“An Analysis of Key Questions”), called for development of decision support resources in June 2001 –“…the National Academy of Sciences study also recommends, ‘research that couples physical, chemical, biological and human systems; improved capability of integrating scientific knowledge, including its uncertainty, into effective decision support systems; and an ability to conduct research at the regional or sectoral level that promotes analysis of the response of human and natural systems to multiple stresses.’” White House document accompanying the President’s June 11, 2001 Statement on Climate Change CCRI, which is managed with USGCRP under CCSP, included emphasis on decision support

What are some of the key science-related “policy” issues defined by the Administration?

1. What is the Current State of the Climate System? The climate system is complex and is regulated by interactions and “feedbacks” across many different components.

Climate Change Has Been Observed Global mean temperature increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C. 1990’s warmest decade, 1998 warmest year in the instrumental record ( ) Degree of confidence higher today but: Natural variability Model limitations Proxy record “errors” Inconsistent records

2. How Are Human Activities Affecting the Climate System ? Humans have changed concentrations of GHGs Atmospheric CO 2 has increased by 30% since 1750 Methane has increased by 150% Increase due to combustion of fossil fuels, land-use changes, and agriculture Humans also contribute to aerosols concentrations (sulfate and black carbon)

Can Climate Change Be Attributed to Human Activities? Compare observed changes to historically- force model simulations Models simulate past changes most closely when forcing includes natural and human factors (e.g., GHG and aerosol emissions)

3. How Might Climate Evolve in the Future? Climate Change Projections Depend on … Human driving forces—emissions and land use/cover change (population, economics, …) Emissions to concentrations— role of carbon cycle uncertainties Concentrations to radiative forcing—aerosol uncertainties Radiative forcing to climate response—uncertainty in climate sensitivity

Current Projections Show… Increase in global average surface temperatures ( º C by 2100) Rise of sea level (9-88 cm higher in 2100) Projected changes for the 21st century are larger than those that have already occurred Further changes will take place to reach equilibrium Figure depicts additional changes and level of certainty

Modeling Challenges Uncertainties in modeling key feedback processes (clouds, water vapor, ice, aerosols) Improve skill at regional climate forecasting Improve modeling of extreme events Assess potential for abrupt changes, which are seen in paleo records (i.e. ocean thermohaline circulation)

4. What Impacts Might We Expect from Climate Change? Impacts will depend on the magnitude, rate, and regional distribution of change Assessing impacts of climate change is difficult: –the lack of reliable local or regional detail in climate projections, especially for extreme events; –uncertain interactions of multiple stresses (e.g., land- use change and local pollution) –uncertainty in how much ingenuity and commitment societies show in responding to potential impacts –balancing “positive” and “negative” effects –choice of “numeraire” for counting impacts

Observed Changes in Regional Climates Have Already Affected Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems Average growing season longer Ranges of some species of plants, insects, birds, and fish shifted poleward and upward in elevation Earlier flowering in some plants Increased frequency of coral bleaching

Potential Impacts for North America Ecosystems are especially vulnerable Widespread water concerns arise Food supply is secure Near-term forest growth increases Increased damage occurs in coastal and permafrost areas Adaptation determines health outcomes Uncertainties remain and surprises are expected Source: US Climate Action Report**

How Are Climate Research and Technology Development Supported in the U.S.? 13 Federal Agencies/ Departments coordinate their activities through the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Close coordination with energy technology programs

Strategic Plan based on: Comments during workshop (1300 participants) 270 sets of comments during an open comment period Review by the NRC Government review Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

Vision for the CCSP A nation and the global community empowered with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems

CCSP Mission Facilitate the creation and application of knowledge of the Earth’s global environment through research, observations, decision support, and communication

CCSP Strategy Includes: Five goals with long-term research foci and short- term products Basic research in 7 core science elements, with accelerated focus on key uncertainties (aerosols, feedbacks, carbon) Observations (accelerate additional observations and protect threatened series) Decision support (1. reports; 2. support for adaptive management; and 3. national policy— e.g., energy options) Communications (transparency, accountability, and new products)

Improve capabilities to forecast seasonal to interannual cycles of variability Increase confidence in understanding how and why climate has changed Better understanding of long term natural cycles in climate Understand climate extremes Expand observations/data capabilities

Reduce uncertainty in sources and sinks of GHG’s, aerosols Monitor ozone layer recovery and climate-ozone interactions Understand interactions among pollutant emissions, atmospheric transport, and air quality Improve quantification of net emissions of GHG’s Improve capabilities for conducting “If…,then…” analysis

Characterization of circulation of oceans and atmosphere Improve understanding of key “feedbacks” (i.e. water vapor) Understand conditions that give rise to abrupt or discontinuous changes Incorporate best knowledge of climate processes and feedbacks into models Improve capacity to develop and apply models

Improve knowledge of sensitivity of ecosystems Provide scientific input for evaluating adaptation options Improve understanding of how changes in ecosystems and human infrastructure interact over long periods of time

Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments Develop and evaluate methods to support policymaking and demonstrate these methods with case studies Develop resources to support adaptive management and planning, and transition these resources from research to application

Guidelines for Preparation of Synthesis and Assessment Products Government documents; mixture of external and Federal actors involved in preparation Lead agencies take responsibility Transparency in all steps of production –Framing: define product and customer; community input; draft prospectus for comment –Drafting: open to LA nominations and input of materials –Review: open, transparent, and traceable –Production: consistent format Draft guidelines will be available for public comment (Fed. Register and CCSP website)

Implementation Concerns CCSP is promising “final” answers to questions that require long-term research –NO. Long-term nature is acknowledged. Products will provide updates on important and/or rapidly evolving scientific issues CCSP is competing with IPCC or other processes –CCSP products will focus on key sub-issues in phase 1 or follow-up with greater detail in phase 2 than is possible in the international assessments CCSP “approval” of science –Transparency of process and use of structure that includes technical documents and policy summaries

Framework for Supporting “Adaptive Management”

Conclusions Research has progressed Important uncertainties remain and are being addressed Applied research is already informing policy makers and resource managers Deciding when we know “enough” is a value judgment not a scientific issue CCSP is at the center of controversy; the outcome of debate has meaning beyond the immediate climate science and policy issues

For Further Information Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – US Global Change Research Program –Our Changing Planet annual report – Climate Change Science Program – ov Global Change Research Information Office –