The 1995-2000 interprefectural migration of foreign residents of Japan: salient features and multivariate explanation Yoshitaka Ishikawa (Kyoto University,

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Presentation transcript:

The 1995-2000 interprefectural migration of foreign residents of Japan: salient features and multivariate explanation Yoshitaka Ishikawa (Kyoto University, Japan) and Kao-Lee Liaw (McMaster University, Canada) The 4th International Conference on Population Geographies at Hong Kong, China, on 12 July, 2007

Existing literature focused on foreign residents in Japan ◆There has been a proliferation of research since the mid-1980s, when massive immigration started. ◆ Foreigner rate is low (1.6%）, but absolute number is large (approximately 2 million). ◆It is now an important research subject of all social sciences including geography.

Difficulty in studying migration of foreign residents in Japan ◆ No comprehensive source; general migration patterns have remained unknown. ◆ Published Reports of 2000 Census 　1) specific origins are unknown both for immigration and internal migration 　 2) detailed migrants’ attributes are unknown 　⇒special application to Japanese Statistics Bureau to obtain micro data samples

Three perspectives to explain destination choice

Comparison of interprefectural migration between foreign residents and total population Groupings of Prefectures Net-migration Rate (Persons) ( % ) The Three Largest Metropolitan Areas -570 -0.10 164,912 0.28 Tokyo Area 354 0.14 235,743 0.74 Nagoya Area 1,848 2.13 21,893 0.21 Osaka Area -2,772 -1.15 -92,724 -0.53 Metropolitan Fringes 600 1.21 32,280 0.41 Manufacturing Stronghold 1,894 4.45 -10,552 -0.16 Tohoku Region -372 -2.44 -41,423 -0.44 Rest of Japan -1,552 -1.52 -145,217 -0.39

Net-migration rate of Japanese interprefectural migration, 1995-2000

Major foreign residents in Japan (2000) Census Alien registration ethnicity 1,310,545 1,686,444 (1.03%) (1.33%) Korean 528,904 635,269 Chinese 252,680 335,575 Brazil 188,190 254,394 Filipino 93,352 144,871 Others 247,419 316,335

General features by major ethnicity

General features by educational attainment

Nested logit model ⇒sample size: 69,308 persons 　 Departure sub-model: 　　　 ⇒ dependent variable: choice probability of stay in, or departure from, the prefecture of usual residence in 1995 ⇒sample size: 69,308 persons 　Destination choice sub-model : ⇒ dependent variable: choice probability of a particular destination among 46 prefectures ⇒ sample size: 42,301 persons

Explanatory variables 　 Individual attributes <De, DC> : age, educational attainment, sex, ethnicity, family status Labour market related <De, DC> : employment opportunity, income level 　 Co-ethnic attraction <De, DC> Marital opportunity : <De, DC> Prefectural size <De, DC> Competition with new immigrants <De, DC> Spatial separation <DC>: distance, contiguity Inclusive variable <De>

Why is international marriage in Tohoku region important? ● The stem family system is dominant in such region as Tohoku. To maintain this system, marriage is essential for household head’s son as successor. ●Due to imbalanced sex ratio, the issue of marriage squeeze for male population is serious in eastern half of Japan. ⇒Tohoku has both the first and second conditions. Unless household head’s son find Japanese new bride, he tends to look for his bride with foreign nationality.

New Immigration and Interprefectural Migration

Application result of departure submodel

Application result of destination choice submodel

Conclusion Major destinations: Nagoya metropolitan area, manufacturing stronghold (not Tokyo metropolitan area) Highly mobile persons: Brazilian, graduates from university Application result of nested logit model <departure sub-model> ethnicity, age, educational attainment, competition with new immigrants, co-ethnic attraction <destination choice sub-model> spatial separation, prefectural size, employment opportunity, co-ethnic attraction

Implications of the findings Comparison of explanatory power of international marraige between new immigration and interprefectural migration: Role of international marriage in the former is larger than that in the latter. Comparison of migration pattern between foreigner and Japanese: Net inflow to Tokyo metropolitan area for Japanese is much larger than that for foreigner. ⇒Interprefectural migration by foreign residents has contributed to a reduction of “monopolar concentration in Tokyo”. ⇒”hollowization” of manufacturing employment opportunity may lead to an intensification of “monopolar concentration in Tokyo”.