The Consequences of Educational Expansion in Reforming China Maocan Guo, Sociology, Harvard Northshore Society Meeting, Oct. 1

Outline How sociologists study educational expansion Educational inequality in China Intergenerational mobility in China Comparing China with industrial societies

Educational Expansion and Social Fluidity The general expansion in educational system around the world in the 20 th century Sociologists’ interest: the triangle relationships between social origin, educational attainment, and social destination under educational expansiontriangle relationships Equality of opportunity vs. equality of outcome Social fluidity: the degree to which class destinations depend on class origins (odd ratio)

The Functionalist View The core questions: does educational expansion promote more social fluidity in educational and occupational attainment? The liberal thesis of industrialization (Blau and Duncan 1966; Treiman 1970) – Education becomes an increasingly important mechanism of status transmission.increasingly important

The Debates Empirical results reject the thesis but are still inconclusive – The origin-education association: persistent inequalitypersistent inequality – The education-destination association: institutionally conditionedinstitutionally conditioned – The origin-destination association: constant fluxconstant flux Substantial variations to the general patterns in all the three dimensions. How to explain the similarities and variations?

Exiting Theoretical Accounts How to explain the persistent/declining OE/OD associations in Europe and US? – Theory of “no trend”: there is a core social fluidity with four dimensions – Theory of rational choice: social classes tend to prior avoidance of downward mobility in educational attainment; reduced class differentials in primary and secondary effects. – Compositional effect

Why China is Special? Institutional factors in education – Rising cost in all upper secondary levels, particularly at the college level – The most selective process of school enrollment moves from college to senior high school Sociopolitical context – The communist state has a strong tendency of political intervention in educational expansion. – The house registration (hukou) system

China’s Educational Expansion National Statistics on Enrollment, by Level

National Statistics on the Transition Rates, by Level

Rising Educational Inequalities in China Educational inequality (by rural-urban and class origin differentials) at the senior high level: first increase, then decrease Educational inequality at the tertiary level: quickly increase since 1999 Rural children’s chances to higher education have been relatively decreased after 1999, whereas urban children’s chances have been relatively increased (compared to their previous cohorts).

Trends of Cumulative Transition Rates, the CHNS Data

Preferential Admission Preferential admission policies provide a way alternative to the entrance examination to get ahead in China’s higher education sector (good school and good major), in which students from better-off families are more likely to take advantage.

Less Social Fluidity in Recent Years The immobility parameters seem to increase for the first two cohorts who spent their youth during the Maoist era, followed by a slight reduction in the size for the third cohort who were roughly in time to see the beginning of the economic reform, and a subsequent relative increase for the later two birth cohorts who basically grew up in the reform period. Analysis of the origin-education association further indicates that the distribution of educational opportunities are less dependent on social origin for the first three cohorts than for the later two The education-destination association parameters are the lowest for the first two cohorts who grew up in Maoist China, the highest for the third cohort, and about intermediate for the two latest cohorts.

Why is China different? The theoretical puzzle: – Why does China have so different a pattern from most industrial societies in which persistent or declining OE/OD associations are found? My interpretation in a comparative perspective – Class strategies of social mobility – The structure of educational institutions – Sociopolitical institutional contexts

A Micro-based Theory on Educational Expansion Class strategies of social mobility – Different classes have different strategies for social mobility, but their goal of social mobility is assumed to be the same, i.e. prioritizing avoidance of downward mobility over achievement of upward mobility – Strategies from above (service class) vs. strategies from below (working class). The structure of educational institutions – In industrial societies such as Europe and the US  working class’s mobility strategies tend to be the same as the service class  Persistent or declining inequality – In societies like China with increasing but inadequate educational opportunity and rising educational cost  working class’s mobility strategies tend to be constrained by the rising educational cost and early barrier of selection  Rising inequality Sociopolitical institutional contexts – The state has a strong tendency of political intervention?

Thanks for Your Attention!