Can Energy Production Scale? Choices and Challenges for the Current Century

Three Main Challenges Electricity Production:  per capita consumption is increasing faster than energy efficiency Electricity Distribution:  Aging grid already at capacity; can’t easily accommodate new sources of generation Fuel Usage:  3.5 Billion gallons a day (would be more if not refinery limited)  400 million gallons a day in the US

Production and Consumption on the Century Timescale

A Century of Change (1900 (=1) vs 2000) Industrial Output: 40 Marine Fish Catch: 35 CO 2 Emissions: 17 Total Energy Use: 16 Coal Production: 7 World Population: 4 Can this century (2000  2100) scale by a factor of 40?

Waveforms of Consumption

The Terrawatt Power Scale Currently we are a 14.5 TW Planet Currently we are a 14.5 TW Planet

The Earth Limited Scale  Scaling from the last century leads to the absurd: 235 TW of required Power  40,000 more of the largest concrete structure in the US  50 Million of these requiring a total of 75 billion tons of Steel (not that much left)  10 Million Sq. km of these  10 Billion of these (1 per person?)

More Earth Limitations Total fuel cell production limited by amount of accessible platinum on the planet; 500 million vehicles  lithospheric exhaustion in 15 years Total fuel cell production limited by amount of accessible platinum on the planet; 500 million vehicles  lithospheric exhaustion in 15 years Higher efficiency PVs limited by accessible amounts of rare materials (e.g. Indium) Higher efficiency PVs limited by accessible amounts of rare materials (e.g. Indium) Conventional Transmission media limited by available new Copper Conventional Transmission media limited by available new Copper Clear need for Carbon based materials (fiber, nanotubes) to overcome this. Clear need for Carbon based materials (fiber, nanotubes) to overcome this.

Business As Usual Scenario Population stabilizes to billion by the year 2100 Population stabilizes to billion by the year 2100 Total world energy use from 2000 to 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years (Current world use is about 14.5 TW years) Total world energy use from 2000 to 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years (Current world use is about 14.5 TW years) 40 TWyr is compromise between current 14.5 TWyr and scaled 235 TWyr 40 TWyr is compromise between current 14.5 TWyr and scaled 235 TWyr

Ultimately Recoverable Resource Conventional Oil/Gas Conventional Oil/Gas Unconventional Oil Unconventional Oil Coal Coal Methane Clathrates Methane Clathrates Oil Shale Oil Shale Uranium Ore Uranium Ore Geothermal Steam - conventional Geothermal Steam - conventional 1000 TWy (1/4 need) 1000 TWy (1/4 need) ,000 20,000 30,000 30,000 2,000 2,000 4,000 4,000

Renewable Potential Sunlight/OTEC Sunlight/OTEC Hot Dry Rock Hot Dry Rock Wind Wind Gulf Stream Current Gulf Stream Current Wave Energy Wave Energy Global Biomass Global Biomass 9,000,000 TWyrs 9,000,000 TWyrs 1,000,000 1,000, , , , ,000 20,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 In Principle, Incident Energy is Sufficient  but how to recover and distribute it in the most cost effective manner?

Dollars Per Megawatt per unit Land use per unit Material Use 20 KW power buoy 20 KW power buoy 5 MW Wind Turbine 5 MW Wind Turbine LNG closed cycle LNG closed cycle Wind Farm Wind Farm PV Farm PV Farm Stirling Farm Stirling Farm Pelamis Farm Pelamis Farm 850 Tons per MW 850 Tons per MW 100 Tons per MW 100 Tons per MW 1500 MW sq km 1500 MW sq km 600 MW sq km 600 MW sq km 50 MW sq km 50 MW sq km 40 MW sq km 40 MW sq km 30 MW sq km 30 MW sq km

The Gigantic Lever Arm Of China (and India) Increased production/consumption on an unprecedented scale

The US in milli-Chinas Steel Use: 1992 (1400) 1998 (1120) 2004 (320) Steel Use: 1992 (1400) 1998 (1120) 2004 (320) Coal Use: 1992 (923) 1998 (780) 2004 (670) Coal Use: 1992 (923) 1998 (780) 2004 (670) Oil Use: 1992 (5600) 1998 (3600) 2004 (2500) Oil Use: 1992 (5600) 1998 (3600) 2004 (2500) China: Adding 1 new 1000 MW coal fired power plant every 10 days China: Will exceed US GHG Emissions Summer 2008 China: Private Vehicle Fleet growing at least at 10% per year

The Need for BioFuels

India/China Growth  New Fuels Required

Total Possible Yield 10 kg of corn = 1 gallon of ethanol 10 kg of corn = 1 gallon of ethanol 1 ideal acre of corn = 850 gallons  but we need 200 billion gallons annually 1 ideal acre of corn = 850 gallons  but we need 200 billion gallons annually 1 practical acre = 2/3 of an ideal acre 1 practical acre = 2/3 of an ideal acre Required acreage is 350 million acres of crop land Required acreage is 350 million acres of crop land 450 million acres in the US so 78% needed for this enterprise  not feasible for grain based ethanol 450 million acres in the US so 78% needed for this enterprise  not feasible for grain based ethanol

100 Billion Gallons by 2050 Switchgrass as cellulosic ethanol: Current average yields are five dry tons per acre. Switchgrass as cellulosic ethanol: Current average yields are five dry tons per acre. With improved breeding techniques this could increase to 15 dry tons per acre With improved breeding techniques this could increase to 15 dry tons per acre 88 Million acres is then needed to produce the equivalent of 100 billion gallons of gasoline 88 Million acres is then needed to produce the equivalent of 100 billion gallons of gasoline

Requirements/Expectations 1 billion dollar annual investment in research and testing needed to get to 15 tons per acre 1 billion dollar annual investment in research and testing needed to get to 15 tons per acre 0.6 – 0.9 $ production cost per gallon by 2015 (compared to about $1.30 now for crude oil) 0.6 – 0.9 $ production cost per gallon by 2015 (compared to about $1.30 now for crude oil) If fuel economy improves to 50 mpg by 2030 and if we devote 10% of available crop land to grow fuel on then just about ½ of our fuel requirements will be met with “switchgrass” If fuel economy improves to 50 mpg by 2030 and if we devote 10% of available crop land to grow fuel on then just about ½ of our fuel requirements will be met with “switchgrass”

The Necessary New Smart Grid This is as critical as the need to develop new sources of generation. Current US policy is to ignore this part of the problem

Electricity Distribution US presently operates 250,000 km of > 230KV transmission lines US presently operates 250,000 km of > 230KV transmission lines Transmission line costs are excessive which is a limiting factor now in adding wind farms to our energy portfolio Transmission line costs are excessive which is a limiting factor now in adding wind farms to our energy portfolio Transmission Losses are now at about 10% per year Transmission Losses are now at about 10% per year

The New Smart Grid Improved transmission, capacity, grid control and stability Improved transmission, capacity, grid control and stability Better management of peak loads Better management of peak loads Better incorporation of small scale generation Better incorporation of small scale generation Fully distributed; each node (household) can potentially buy, sell, or store electricity Fully distributed; each node (household) can potentially buy, sell, or store electricity Merger with Internet protocols but at a scale of 1 billion transactions per minute! Merger with Internet protocols but at a scale of 1 billion transactions per minute!

Summary Big Challenge?  so what  so was going to the Moon The scale of this challenge is large (~10TW by 2050) and requires year implementation timescale Think seriously about using Hydrogen as a proxy for transmission of electricity within the new smart grid Increased fuel economy is absolutely essential No one technological solution (e.g. fusion) yet exists  need Network of regionally based alternative energy facilities