The Politics of Climate Change Peter Newell CSGR University of Warwick School of Development Studies University of East Anglia

The Politics of Climate Change Science: consensus and uncertainty Science: consensus and uncertainty Scale of problem: dispersed, local- global Scale of problem: dispersed, local- global Potential costs involved Potential costs involved Equity: North-South Equity: North-South Equity: Intergenerational Equity: Intergenerational Power of opposition Power of opposition Unprecedented level of cooperation required Unprecedented level of cooperation required

The Politics of Climate Change Disputes over responsibility: Burden of action, funding Disputes over responsibility: Burden of action, funding Disputes over institutions: GEF, fines for non-compliance? Disputes over institutions: GEF, fines for non-compliance? Disputes over solutions: Role of technology Disputes over solutions: Role of technology Disputes over solutions: Role of markets Disputes over solutions: Role of markets

Science and knowledge Science and knowledge Consensus always fragile especially when the stakes are high Consensus always fragile especially when the stakes are high Organised science makes a difference; epistemic communities Organised science makes a difference; epistemic communities Have to deflect challenges to their authority, protect their access to policy-makers Have to deflect challenges to their authority, protect their access to policy-makers Other knowledge forms equally key: economics, technology Other knowledge forms equally key: economics, technology

Role of North-South politics Can lead to stalemate over responsibility for causes and burden for taking action Can lead to stalemate over responsibility for causes and burden for taking action Sensitive issue of future contribution of NICs and LDCs: New approaches? Staged commitments, multi-track negotiating processes Sensitive issue of future contribution of NICs and LDCs: New approaches? Staged commitments, multi-track negotiating processes Requires careful coalition building and innovative issue- linkages to issues of aid, trade, debt Requires careful coalition building and innovative issue- linkages to issues of aid, trade, debt Contests over appropriate policy tools: use of aid, export credit screening, which institution to oversee implementation Contests over appropriate policy tools: use of aid, export credit screening, which institution to oversee implementation Splits between North-South opens up possibilities for ‘winning coalitions’ Splits between North-South opens up possibilities for ‘winning coalitions’ Taking equity seriously: Not a technical issue about efficiency and savings. Sensitivities about vulnerability, obligation and justice Taking equity seriously: Not a technical issue about efficiency and savings. Sensitivities about vulnerability, obligation and justice

Justice and Climate Change Those who bear the worst effects contribute to the problem least Those who bear the worst effects contribute to the problem least Those who contribute most are best placed to adapt Those who contribute most are best placed to adapt Vulnerability cuts across nations: Poverty, gender and class Vulnerability cuts across nations: Poverty, gender and class The South as Sink: Solutions which displace problem to the global South The South as Sink: Solutions which displace problem to the global South

Supportive role of private sector Experts through experience Experts through experience Command of technologies and production processes for delivering environmental goods Command of technologies and production processes for delivering environmental goods Contribution to the economy Contribution to the economy Potential veto coalition, non compliance Potential veto coalition, non compliance Potential drivers of standards within regimes: Exporting environmentalism Potential drivers of standards within regimes: Exporting environmentalism Private regimes and investment flows often have greater ecological significance than rules set at the global level Private regimes and investment flows often have greater ecological significance than rules set at the global level Leading by example (STEPS) Leading by example (STEPS) Street level bureaucrats Street level bureaucrats

Vocal campaigning by civil society Support positive and ambitious policy positions; strengthen position of sympathetic elements within government Support positive and ambitious policy positions; strengthen position of sympathetic elements within government Mobilise public support around strong treaties Mobilise public support around strong treaties Expose recalcitrants in negotiations; maintain pressure Expose recalcitrants in negotiations; maintain pressure Expose non-compliance at national level Expose non-compliance at national level Also provide expertise, sit on delegations Also provide expertise, sit on delegations Magnify voice of weaker and most affected developing countries Magnify voice of weaker and most affected developing countries

The Rise of Civil Regulation Frustration with pace and progress of inter-state negotiations Frustration with pace and progress of inter-state negotiations Direct targeting of key polluters Direct targeting of key polluters Plays on strengths and weaknesses of business Plays on strengths and weaknesses of business Manifested in range of liberal and critical forms of governance/regulation Manifested in range of liberal and critical forms of governance/regulation Linked to corporate accountability movements, anti-globalisation and Climate Justice groups Linked to corporate accountability movements, anti-globalisation and Climate Justice groups

Liberal Civil Regulation CSC: Labelling and certification CSC: Labelling and certification Business case for climate change: Climate Group, Pew Centre Business case for climate change: Climate Group, Pew Centre GHG Registry: Pew, WBCSD, WRI, WWF GHG Registry: Pew, WBCSD, WRI, WWF Project specific collaborations Project specific collaborations Responsible Investor: USS Pension Fund campaign, good corporate governance Responsible Investor: USS Pension Fund campaign, good corporate governance Working with: Persuasion, (Leggett and insurance industry); UNEP Statement Working with: Persuasion, (Leggett and insurance industry); UNEP Statement

Critical Civil Regulation Consumer boycotts (Exxon etc)Consumer boycotts (Exxon etc) Company-specific campaigns (Stop Esso)Company-specific campaigns (Stop Esso) Shareholder Activism (CERES and ICCR): Threats of DivestmentShareholder Activism (CERES and ICCR): Threats of Divestment Targeting banks: JP Morgan Chase: Assessing financial risks in loan evaluationsTargeting banks: JP Morgan Chase: Assessing financial risks in loan evaluations Direct Action: Rising Tide, Greenpeace (Drax etc)Direct Action: Rising Tide, Greenpeace (Drax etc) Resistance to market mechanisms: Voluntarism, Chicago Carbon Exchange, CDM, emissions tradingResistance to market mechanisms: Voluntarism, Chicago Carbon Exchange, CDM, emissions trading Broader critique of limits of marketisationBroader critique of limits of marketisation

Conclusions Addressing blind-spots in climate governance: Beyond the public Addressing blind-spots in climate governance: Beyond the public Policy coherence and integration Policy coherence and integration Building new cross-sectoral coalitions Building new cross-sectoral coalitions Working at all levels: Local – Global Working at all levels: Local – Global Change at material, institutional and cultural level Change at material, institutional and cultural level Personal responsibility plus broader political change Personal responsibility plus broader political change