Climatic gradients and Douglas-fir growth: Water limits growth from stand to region Jeremy Littell JISAO CSES Climate Impacts Group UW College of Forest.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Tree-ring reconstructions of streamflow and climate and their application to water management Jeff Lukas Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado.

Advertisements

– Winter Ecology. Introduction  Global Climate Change  How microbs may be affected by snowpack depth  Temperature/precipitation trends.

Dendroclimatology. Dendroclimatologists are interested in past climate so that the variation and trend of modern climate can be put into perspective Synoptic.

Developing the Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index Is this computer science or climatology? Steve Goddard Computer Science & Engineering, UNL.

The Effects of Site and Soil on Fertilizer Response of Coastal Douglas-fir K.M. Littke, R.B. Harrison, and D.G. Briggs University of Washington Coast Fertilization.

Soil CO 2 Efflux from a Subalpine Catchment Diego A. Riveros-Iregui 1, Brian L. McGlynn 1, Vincent J. Pacific 1, Howard E. Epstein 2, Daniel L. Welsch,

Water Dynamics: The Experimental Perspective Alan K. Knapp Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University.

Ancient trees, climate models, and the future of drought in western Colorado Jeff Lukas - Western Water Assessment CIRES, University.

Streamflow/runoff sensitivity to warming and drying in the Colorado (Western US) River Basin Tapash Das, Dan Cayan, David Pierce, Mike Dettinger.

1 Climate change and the cryosphere. 2 Outline Background, climatology & variability Role of snow in the global climate system Contemporary observations.

The Importance of Realistic Spatial Forcing in Understanding Hydroclimate Change-- Evaluation of Streamflow Changes in the Colorado River Basin Hydrology.

Climatic and biophysical controls on conifer species distributions in mountains of Washington State, USA D. McKenzie, D. W. Peterson, D.L. Peterson USDA.

Alan F. Hamlet, Phil Mote, Martyn Clark, Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and.

Paleo-reconstruction of summer streamflow and seasonal uncertainties using the VIC hydrologic model Eric Lutz Alan Hamlet Jeremy Littell JISAO CSES Climate.

Climate Change and Douglas-fir Dave Spittlehouse, Research Branch, BC Min. Forest and Range, Victoria.

Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Resources: A Scale- based Framework for Analysis David L. Peterson USDA Forest Service, PNW Station.

Fire and Climate Change in Washington Jeremy S. Littell JISAO CSES Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources in the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood Alan Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental.

PRELIMINARY RESULTS – DO NOT CITE Ecosystem Controls on the Relationship between Climate Variability and 20th Century Fire in the American West Jeremy.

Ecological Context of Climate Impacts on Fire: Wildland Fire Area Burned in the Western U.S Jeremy Littell with Don McKenzie and Dave Peterson.

In memory of Jill Nakawatase. Beating the standard for heat, Seattle style By Eric Sorensen Seattle Times staff reporter Seventy degrees and no relief.

A Macroscale Glacier Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts in the Columbia River Basin Joseph Hamman, Bart Nijssen, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Bibi Naz,

Evaluating the Influence of Precipitation, Temperature, and Soil Moisture on Upper Colorado River Basin Streamflow and Drought Connie Woodhouse, University.

Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Resources Dave Peterson Forest Service – PNW Research Station Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab UW.

Alan F. Hamlet Philip W. Mote Martyn Clark Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Dendroecology and Dendroclimatology of a Tasmanian bog forest Daniel J. Balanzategui, Carolyn A. Copenheaver, David C. Frank, Liya Jin, Nicolas Latte,

Strategic sampling of microclimate, soil moisture and sapflux for improving ecohydrological model estimates in the California Sierra Kyongho Son and Christina.

Climate Sensitivity of Boreal Forest Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics A. David McGuire and Colleagues BNZ LTER Annual Symposium 5 March 2009.

Modeling water and biogeochemical cycles in the Front Range, Colorado: effects of climate and landuse changes Landrum, Laura L., Natural Resource Ecology.

1. Introduction 3. Global-Scale Results 2. Methods and Data Early spring SWE for historic ( ) and future ( ) periods were simulated. Early.

BEN LOCKWOOD DAVID C. LEBLANC DEPT. OF BIOLOGY, BALL STATE UNIVERSITY Growth-Climate Associations for White Ash (Fraxinus americana L.) in Monroe County,

Combining historic growth and climate data to predict growth response to climate change in balsam fir in the Acadian Forest region Elizabeth McGarrigle.

Annotated and Abbreviated Core Presentation

Paper Review R 馮培寧 Kirsten Feng.

Fire-climate-vegetation- topography-land use What drives and determines fire patterns across time and space? What are the implications of global climate.

Scott Goetz Changes in Productivity with Climate Change at High Latitudes: the role of Disturbance.

The Role of Antecedent Soil Moisture on Variability of the North American Monsoon System Chunmei Zhu a, Yun Qian b, Ruby Leung b, David Gochis c, Tereza.

 Comparing Vegetation in a Riparian Zone to an Upland Area in a Colorado Montane Forest By: Abby Branson Vegetation Ecology, Summer 2013 Mountain Research.

Adjustment of Global Gridded Precipitation for Orographic Effects Jennifer Adam.

Printed by Introduction: The nature of surface-atmosphere interactions are affected by the land surface conditions. Lakes (open water.

Spatial distribution of snow water equivalent across the central and southern Sierra Nevada Roger Bales, Robert Rice, Xiande Meng Sierra Nevada Research.

Carbon and water cycling along the western Sierra gradient Anne Kelly SSCZO annual meeting August 21, 2012.

Natural and human induced changes in the water cycle: Relative magnitudes and trends Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Geography University of California,

A Winter Comparison Study of Dominant Alpine Plant Communities in the Southern Rocky Mountains and the Chugach Mountains of Southern Alaska What factors.

Climate Sensitivity of Thinleaf Alder Growth in Interior Alaska: Implications for N-Fixation Inputs to River Floodplains Dana Nossov 1,2, Roger Ruess 1,

Tree-rings: records of the past, insights into the future

Mind’s On – Terms Review

Figure 1. Map of study area. Heavy solid polygon defines “Cascade Mountains” for the purposes of this study. The thin solid line divides the Cascade Mountains.

Seasonal and elevational variation of surface water  18 O and  2 H in the Willamette River basin J. Renée Brooks 1, Parker J. Wigington 1, Jr., Carol.

Assessing the Influence of Decadal Climate Variability and Climate Change on Snowpacks in the Pacific Northwest JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and the.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and the Department.

Multiscale Climatic, Topographic, and Biotic Controls of Tree Invasion in a Sub-Alpine Parkland Landscape, Jefferson Park, Oregon Cascades, USA Harold.

Relationship of U.S. Summer Droughts with SST and Soil Moisture: Distinguishing the Time Scale of Droughts Renguang Wu Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere.

Climate change, forests and fire in the Sierra Nevada, California: implications for current and future resource management Hugh Safford Regional Ecologist.

Estimating Changes in Flood Risk due to 20th Century Warming and Climate Variability in the Western U.S. Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

Forests and Water in the Sierra Nevada

The Effects of Topography on Forest Cover in Subalpine Forest

(April, 2001-September, 2002) JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the

in the Neversink River Basin, New York

Hydrologic implications of 20th century warming in the western U.S.

Hydrologic Implications of 20th Century Warming in the Western U.S.

Hydrologic Implications of 20th Century Warming in the Western U.S.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. The PDO pattern [is] marked by widespread.

Figure 1. Spatial distribution of pinyon-juniper and ponderosa pine forests is shown for the southwestern United States. Red dots indicate location of.

Trends in Runoff and Soil Moisture in the Western U.S

Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variability on Snowpack Trends in the Western U.S. JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil.

University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System

Hydrologic Changes in the Western U.S. from

Forests, water & research in the Sierra Nevada

UW Hydrologic Forecasting: Yakima R. Discussion

Presentation transcript:

Climatic gradients and Douglas-fir growth: Water limits growth from stand to region Jeremy Littell JISAO CSES Climate Impacts Group UW College of Forest Resources David L. Peterson, USFS PWFSL Michael Tjoelker, UW College of Forest Resources

Douglas-fir and climate Thompson et al. Bio-climatic range of Douglas-fir fairly well understood But presence/absence ≠ life history - growth is also important Climatic limitations on growth should vary substantially across range

Photo: J. Littell Photo: C. Webber Photo: C. Woodhouse Low elevation / southern mountain hemlock High elevation / northern mountain hemlock Interior ponderosa pine

Why an emphasis on tree growth? Compared to biogeography, we know relatively little about long-term, broad-scale climatic controls on life- history processes of trees Especially true in non-plantation, mountain ecosystem settings where topography, soils, etc. interact with climate Establishment, growth, and mortality are the mechanisms of species’ range changes and are tied to climate; these are the ecological mechanisms behind productivity, carbon sequestration, and ecohydrology

Scales of Climatic Influence Global - hemispheric: climate change Hemispheric to regional: climatic variability Regional to local: physiographic Local: topographic Goal: exploit network of tree ring chronologies to understand local vs. large scale controls on growth

CLIMET (Climate-Landscape Interactions on a Mountain Ecosystem Transect)

Climate Change Climate Variability Local climate North South Highest Elevation Lowest Elevation TopographyPhysiography

Quinault North (ONP) Trout Ck. North (IPNF) Gray Wolf South (ONP) Robinson South (IPNF) Thornton North (NCNP) Park Ck. North (GNP) Stehekin South (NCNP) Belly River South (GNP) 411 cm 121cm 199 cm219cm115cm 72 cm118cm170cm

Climate Dimensions of the Sample Transect

First Detrending: Negative exponential, negative linear, or zero slope fit Second Detrending: Cubic smoothing spline (preserves 50% variance at 128yr frequency, 99% at 41 yr) Mean standardized chronology

Standard Chronology (mod. Z index) ONP NCNP IPNF GNP Within each park, the variability in tree-growth is similar across low, middle, and high elevations. Main differences between west and east (note 2000s drought)

Correlating Tree-growth and Climate Two scales of monthly climate data: “Climatological”: divisional climate ( ) Year-of-growth and year-prior PPT, Avg. T, PDSI + calculated water balance deficit “Biological”: (1/8° x 1/8 °) VIC climate ( ) Year-of-growth and year-prior PPT, T (Avg., Max., Min.), Soil Moisture, ET, SWE Seasonal climate variables Climate division: ANN, H2OANN, NDJFM, AMJ, MJJAS, JJA, JA for all PPT, T, PDSI VIC: Selected combinations of months for different variables Water balance deficit Gridded Bouwman 30cm field capacity data set: 50 and 100mm Assumed non-linear declining availability function Estimated PET - AET = deficit Milne et al. surplus water: PPT- ET / PPT

PPT (M) JJ Year-of JA (S) Year-prior Avg. T -JJ Year of, JA prior + Apr and Nov prior Important differences: VIC precipitation and divisional temperature are better correlates in most chronologies. Seasonality relationships different: VIC captures a longer season of sensitivity to precipitation. ONP relationship stronger GNP relationship stronger General patterns of growth-climate correlations are similar for divisional and VIC PPT and T climate.

VIC allows separation of the influence of minimum and maximum temperature VIC Min/Max T -JJ year of (esp. GNP and ONP), - JA year prior for maximum temperature (esp. IPNF and NCNP) (hot summers) +ON year prior for minimum temperature (warmer autumns) Nov. results similar to VIC and divisional average T Prior JS results similar to divisional average T JJ results weak in other analyses

Deficit (Div.) -JJ year of growth -JAS year prior PDSI (Div.) +May.-Sep +ASO year prior Soil Moisture (VIC) Entire year prior Evapotransp. (VIC) Mixed (AET context varies with PET)

Seasonal Aggregation Divisional Climate Prior JA temperature Prior JA precipitation VIC Climate Prior JA precipitation Prior JJAS max. temp. current AMJJ precip. current AMJJ max. temp. Prior ANN. soil moisture

The magnitude of the correlation between seasonal hydrological variables and tree-growth depends on the position of the plot along a gradient of surplus water in the environment.

The portion of the tree-growth signal that is common to all plots is closely related to independent reconstructions of PDSI. However, there are differences across the transect in fidelity to that signal.

Summary: Growth-Climate Relationships Most frequent patterns of correlations point to combined influence of (-) temperature and (+) precipitation during summer Underscored by PDSI (+) and water balance deficit (-), esp. in IPNF and GNP. Some cool season (+) temp. and (-) snow relationships, primarily in ONP and NCNP. Bonsai PSME, Saint Mary, Glacier National Park

Melissa Hornbein Spencer Wood Mike Case, Mike Tjoelker, Sarah Gobbs, Sean Hill Carson Sprenger Alex KarpoffGreg Pederson Sam Cushman Field Crews