Long-term changes in Mediterranean vegetation in Israel and California Yohay Carmel Faculty of Agricultural Engineering The Technion -- Israel Institute.

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Presentation transcript:

Long-term changes in Mediterranean vegetation in Israel and California Yohay Carmel Faculty of Agricultural Engineering The Technion -- Israel Institute of Technology The Technion -- Israel Institute of Technology

Curtis Flather Curtis Flather, Rocky Mountain Research Center, USDA Forest Service Denis Dean Denis Dean, Department of Forest Sciences, Colorado State University Ronen Kadmon Ronen Kadmon, Department of Ecology, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem A Cooperative Research: The Israel Forest Authority (KKL) USDA Forest Service International Programs

Adult oaks (Quercus calliprinos) in Mt. Meron

Herbaceous vegetation in the front, recovering trees in the back, Mt. Meron

Earlier stages of recovery following land abandonment: dwarf shrubs, tall shrubs, and low trees in Mt. Meron

30 years after abandonment of pastoral cultivation in Mt. Meron

Mt. Meron 1945

Mt. Meron 1964

Mt. Meron 1992

Vegetation maps of Mt. Meron, Israel Trees Shrubs Herbaceous Vegetation

Factors that potentially affect current vegetation pattern Past vegetation: Percentage cover of Trees, Shrubs, Herbaceous vegetation Disturbance Agents : Grazing Logging Fire Topography: Slope Aspect Elevation Soil

Map of the study area in Mt. Meron, showing the distinct plots of different grazing pressure, and the range of fire

Change in Trees as a function of Grazing Pressure Change in tree cover ± SE

Regression results for the linear models 1 NS - not significant * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

Regression results for the linear models 2 NS - not significant * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

Weight of predictors in affecting vegetation change in Mt. Meron

Model input (1964 vegetation) Actual 1992 vegetation Predicted 1992 vegetation (Linear model)

MODELS AND REALIZATIONS DETERMINISTIC REALIZATION STOCHASTIC REALIZATION WITH AUTOCOVARIATES NO AUTOCOVARIATES COMPLETE DATASET SAMPLE DATASET LOGISTIC MODEL LINEAR MODEL

Deterministic Realization Stochastic Realization ? ? ? !

StochasticrealizationDeterministicrealization

Actual and predicted proportions of 1992 vegetation

Matching the actual map on a cell by cell basis

Grazing intensities do not change do not change Grazing is excluded Scenarios for 2020

Mediterranean type ecosystems

Guess if this photo was taken in Israel or in California

Oak woodland, chaparral, and grasses, in Carmel Valley, California

Precipitation patterns in California and Israel

Best match Worst match Precipitation match with Mt. Meron on a monthly basis 1. Cuyamaca mountains 2. Santa Ynez Mountains 4. Sequoia National Forest 5. Sierra Foothills Research Center 6. Hastings Natural History Reservation 8. South Cow Mountain

Hastings Nature Reserve, Carmel Valley, California

A small part of 1939 photo Trees ChaparralGrassland

Same area in 1956

Same area in 1971

Same area in 1995

Vegetation maps of Hastings, California

Vegetation maps of Mt. Meron, Israel Trees Shrubs Herbaceous Vegetation

Change in tree cover in Meron and Hastings

Weight of predictors in affecting vegetation change

Mediterranean vegetation change in long-term, landscape-scale studies Average annual change

Why is there such a difference between vegetation dynamics in California and the Mediterranean basin? 1. Local ecological and anthropogenic conditions 2. Different soils Different evolutionary history 3. Different evolutionary history

A transplant experiment is currently conducted, where oaks from both countries are grown together in both sites, in a controlled environment

Carmel, Y. and Flather, C.H Comparing landscape scale vegetation dynamics following recent disturbance in climatically similar sites in California and the Mediterranean basin. Landscape Ecology 19: Carmel, Y., Kadmon R. and Nirel, R Spatio-temporal predictive models of Mediterranean vegetation dynamics. Ecological Applications, 11 (1): Carmel, Y. and Kadmon, R Grazing, topography, and long term vegetation changes in a Mediterranean ecosystem. Plant Ecology, 145: Carmel, Y. and Kadmon, R Computerized classification of Mediterranean vegetation using panchromatic aerial photographs. Journal of Vegetation Science, 9: Grunzweig, J.M., Carmel, Y., Riov, J. and Flather, C.H. Resource storage and adaptation to drought in oak seedlings: a comparative study with Californian and Mediterranean species. Submitted to Ecology. More information on the various topics discussed here can be found in: