Developing Political Strategies - Nelson Mandela - chapter 10

PAF101 PAF 101 “There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things.” ~Niccolo Machiavelli Module 5, Lecture 5

Choosing A Player With which to develop a strategy  Issue Position Firm  Priority High  Power High

Lowest issue position (best to start with) Lowest priority Highest power Players to Target With Your Strategy

Thinking About Strategies Making Solid Arguments Add or Delete Players Changing Issue Position Changing Power Changing Priorities Putting it Together

Key Strategies for Changing Issue Position 1.Compromise is the act of moving towards each other. 2. Horse-trading is the act of back scratching.

Who is the greatest change agent of the 21 st century?

Facts About South Africa Population About 13% White, 75% Black, 9% Mixed, and 3% Indian 16th Century Dutch Colonize and Become Afrikaners British Takeover After Beating Up Afrikaners National Party Establishes Apartheid As Law 1950’s-1990’s - Organized and Violent Opposition Multi-Racial Regime Headed By Mandela Takes Power

Facts about Mandela Joins African National Congress (ANC) in 1942 Jailed in 1963 Released in 1990 Becomes President in 1994

Figure 1: 1986 Prince Chart PlayerIssue PositionPowerPriorityPrince ANC Communist Party Pan African Congress Liberal Party National Party Conservative Parties West and Int’l Business Military Inkatha “One person, one vote” in South Africa” Probability of Implementation : 98/373= 26%

Major challenges were overcome by threats, promises, horse trading, and compromise 1.Cohesion of “friends” – ANC, PAC, Lib. Party, Communist Party, Inkatha, International Business and Most Countries 2.Building Trust with “enemies” – National Party, Military, Conservative Parties Facts About South Africa

Timing is everything, as in the case of all change Facts About South Africa Decline of South African Economy Building of International Pressure Fall of Soviet Union

Issue Position Power x Priority “One person, one vote in South Africa” Figure 3: Prince Political Map X ANC, Communistic Party, Liberal Party X ( ANC Only) X West and Int’l Business X Pan African Congress X Inkatha X X Conservative Parties X Military National Party X x X

Figure 2: 1990 Prince Chart PlayerIssue PositionPowerPriorityPrince ANC Communist Party Pan African Congress Liberal Party National Party Conservative Parties West and Int’l Business Military Inkatha “One person, one vote in South Africa” Probability of Implementation : 238/313= 76%

Lessons About Change Change is very slow and very hard Macro social, economic, and political trends have to be properly aligned Fear is the most powerful source of change, greed is the second most powerful Capacity for compromise comes from culture, circumstance, and leadership

Important Information! Exercise 10.5 is worth 40 points You will lose all points if you don’t submit your proposal on the website and attach the receipt. html html You must also complete the post-test survey and attach it to your module, or you will lose points Pre/Post Evaluations - PAF 101 NO EXCUSES