Population Modelling in the London Thames Gateway - a new approach for small area geographies Professor Allan J. Brimicombe BA(Hons) M.Phil. Ph.D. C.Geog. FRGS FGS Centre for Geo-Information Studies University of East London, UK

The study area Project EASY London Thames Gateway Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA)

ONS small area population estimates Project EASY Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and LSOA For LSOA estimates, data sets used are: NHS patient register Child benefit Older persons dataset Special populations: 1.Prisoners 2.UK armed forces 3.Foreign armed forces and dependents Constrained to Local Authority MYE The first three data sets are used to calculate change ratios for quinary are groups and gender which are then applied to the previous year’s estimate. Key assumption is that the relationship between these data sets and the true population remains the same for all years at small area geographies.

GLA 2007 round demographic projections Project EASY Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and Ward Change analysis based on ONS MYE Future fertility rates and gender/age-specific survival rates based on ONS 2006 MYE Main determinant of population distribution is the 2004 London Housing Capacity Study and DCLG 2004-based household projections Inputs are: Base population Fertility Mortality/survival migration matrix 2001 migration flow age structures , , gross inflows and net flows Development data 2004 household representative rates

nowfuture -2-3 ONS Borough Ward LSOA UEL models ONS UEL models GLA ONS 2001 Census GLA Locally accessible data sets Up-to-the-moment estimates Small geographical areas (LSOA) Can be carried out locally by analysts Good quality data Social Infrastructure Planning Local Authorities & PCTs Community Infrastructure Levy £ Population estimates and projections Project EASY

Modelling total Council Tax properties (2001 census) Project EASY

Key variables Project EASY LSOALA_NAMELAWARDXYHect E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFX E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFX E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFX E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFX E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFX E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFX E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFX E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFY E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFY E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFY E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFY E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFY E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFY E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFZ E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFZ E Barking and Dagenham00AB00ABFZ Count of properties by Council Tax bands Multiple Home Occupancy Child Benefit Schools Census (PLASC)

Occupied Households Child Benefit Records Dwelling Counts by Council Tax Band Households without Dependent Children Families with Dependent Children Population in Households without Dependent Children Population in Families with Dependent Children Total Estimated Population Houses with Multiple Occupancy School Census Separate model for each Borough Project EASY Structure of the models

Variables by Borough Project EASY So, what are the results Once built, the relationships are assumed to broadly remain between censuses and by plugging in the variables for each subsequent year, the population can be estimated at LSOA....even up-to-the-moment.

Comparing at 2001 Project EASY

Comparing at 2005 Project EASY

Waltham Forest Project EASY

Havering Project EASY

Redbridge Project EASY

Greenwich Project EASY

Hackney Project EASY

Change Project EASY

Next steps Project EASY nowfuture -2-3 LSOA EASY 2001 Census Social Infrastructure Planning Local Authorities & PCTs Community Infrastructure Levy £ (age structure) Tools