Comments on Assignment 1 n start any assignment with a clear statement of purpose n you must DEMONSTRATE a point, not simply ASSERT it. –NOT: Problem statement is clear/unclear –BUT: Authors clearly identify their problem as... n Look more carefully at data analysis

Obstacles to Making social research “scientific” n Some social issues involve NORMATIVE questions n Inability to achieve EXPERIMENTAL controls---typically requires use of STATISTICAL controls n So, why persist in trying??? –To assess the relative contribution of various possible (or apparent) factors

CONCEPTUALIZATION (Theory Construction) n assumptions –a problem has been identified clearly –kind of problem is one whose goal is to account for why a particular set of social phenomena is patterned as it is.

Some Basic Questions I’ll Address n Why must the theories we formulate be thought through very carefully? n What kind of theory construction will be most useful to the conduct of such research?

The Essence of Theory n concepts (constructs) linked via propositions n propositions are essentially statements of relationship between 2 or more concepts that can take on more than one value (VARIABLES)

Propositions and Hypotheses n Hypotheses are propositions that are stated in TESTABLE form n best developed hypos. specify the FORM of relationship anticipated n various forms of relationship among social phenomena are conceivable

Positive relationships Population growth rate (X) Deforestation rate (Y)

Negative relationships Economic status of county population (X) Toxic release exposure rate (Y)

Many relationships between social phenomena are Nonlinear (like those involving development) Development (X) Life expectancy (Y)

What about??? Development (X) Fertility (Y)

What about??? Development Income Inequality Kuznets hypothesis

Deforestation rate Urbanization level Curvilinear relationship example from the Deforestation paper???

Significance of these alternative forms of relationship??? n many standard statistical tests assume the existence of LINEAR relationships n use them and you risk finding no or only a weak relationship when in fact... n moral: must think very carefully about what FORM of relationship is likely to exist.

The issue of causal ordering Symmetrical vs. Asymmetrical X Y X Y (Independent) (Dependent) (covariation) the basis for EXPLANATION useful for PREDICTION

Obstacles to demonstrating causal relationships n Reciprocal causation (toxic releases study) n existence of multiple correlates of an outcome (toxic releases study)

Multiple correlates problem creates opening for rebuttals like: NOT: X(race) Y (exposure) X Z YBUT: OR: Z X Y class Land value

Solution to this Obstacle??? n During data analysis, control for the influence of other phenomena that might be related to both X and Y and contaminate their observed relationship

Implications: The most useful kind of theory construction will: n identify a system of variables that are relatively open to one another’s influence n specify the CAUSAL ORDERING among them that is anticipated n identify the FORMS of relationship thought to exist.

The Flow Chart/ A useful tool EXOGENOUS INTERVENING OUTCOME X1X1 X2X2 X3X3 X4X4 X5X5 X6X

Actions of people in clearing land, harvesting timber or minerals, building roads, expanding cities

EXAMPLE: Interstate Variation in Residence-based abortion rates in the late 20th C

Assignment: Look closely at problem statement and conceptualization of: n Haranczak, Kobos and Elgie. Student attitudes toward capital punishment n Baser et al. Attitudes toward condom availability programs n Sparrow and O’Brien. Attitudes toward impeachment of a president

---Suggest some changes that you think would strengthen the conceptual model. ---Revise the flow chart to reflect your thinking.