Real Time High-Resolution McGill University J. Gyakum 1, R. McTaggart- Cowan 1, P. Sisson 2 1 McGill University 2 National Weather Service.

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Presentation transcript:

Real Time High-Resolution McGill University J. Gyakum 1, R. McTaggart- Cowan 1, P. Sisson 2 1 McGill University 2 National Weather Service

Objectives Implementation of a real time MC2 system Data collection for stat- istical analysis and case studies Investigate impacts of high- resolution modelling on QPF and near-surface winds

Outline Need for mesoscale modelling Description of NWP system Validation case study (27 September 2002) Project timeline and ongoing upgrades

High Resolution (3km) Accurate topography Improved wind fields and fluxes Model terrain- induced confluence

Mesoscale Orography High resolution (6 km) Degraded resolution (~100 km)

Model Description MC2 version Non-hydrostatic, semi- implicit time step, semi- Lagrangian advection Full physics version 3.72 Three one-way nest domains

36 km Nesting Strategy 12 km 3 km

Computational Platform NEC SX-6/8M10 super- computer maintained by RPN/CMC 10x8 PE nodes Theoretical peak performance 10x64 GFlop

Performance Timeline 0000 UTC0300 UTC0600 UTC0900 UTC CMC Regional Forecast McGill Real Time Mesoscale Cascade Domain 1 (36km) Domain 2 (12km) Domain 3 (3km) All runs completed by 0330 Eastern Standard Time

Production Suite SynopticMesoscale Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales

Production Suite Synoptic Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics dynamic tropopause potential temperature

Production Suite Synoptic Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics isentropic potential vorticity dynamic tropopause 

Production Suite Synoptic Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics coupling index  dt -  e(bl) dynamic tropopause  isentropic potential vorticity

Production Suite Synoptic Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics moisture transport dynamic tropopause  isentropic potential vorticity coupling index

Production Suite Synoptic Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics moisture flux divergence dynamic tropopause  isentropic potential vorticity coupling index moisture transport

Production Suite Synoptic Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics Non-standard synoptic output available on 36 and 12 km domains (1 & 2) dynamic tropopause  isentropic potential vorticity coupling index moisture transport moisture flux divergence

Production Suite Mesoscale Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales frontogenesis function and terms

Production Suite Mesoscale Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales high-resolution convective and explicit precipitation frontogenesis function

Production Suite Mesoscale Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales high resolution vertical motion fields frontogenesis function high resolution precipitation

Production Suite Mesoscale Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales cross-sectional plots of various thermodynamic variables frontogenesis function high resolution precipitation high resolution vertical motion

Production Suite Mesoscale Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales cross-sectional plots of frontal circulations frontogenesis function high resolution precipitation high resolution vertical motion thermodynamic cross-sections

Production Suite Mesoscale Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales Mesoscale visualization tools available on 12 and 3 km domains (2 & 3) frontogenesis function high resolution precipitation high resolution vertical motion thermodynamic cross-sections frontal circulations

Case Study (2 May) GOES-East Water vapour 0000UTC 2 May

Precipitation Structure Radar ObservationsModel Rain Rate 0900 UTC 2 May 2002 (initialized May) Domain 2 (12 km)

Precipitation Structure Radar ObservationsModel Rain Rate 1200 UTC 2 May 2002 (initialized May) Domain 2 (12 km)

MarchSeptemberMarchSeptember Project Timeline completed in progress planned model implementation McGill-side storage structure analysis tool construction visualization design web interface construction real time modelling gridded data transfers AWIPS implementation

Case Study (27 Sept) GOES-East Water vapour (0000 UTC 27 Sept)

Precipitation Domain 1 (36km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept

Precipitation Observed total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept

Precipitation Domain 2 (12km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept

Precipitation Domain 3 (3km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept

Precipitation Domain 3 (3km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept

500mb Height/Vorticity

325K Potential Vorticity

Dynamic Tropopause Potential Temperature McGill 24h forecastRUC analysis 00Z 28

Project Timeline MarchJuneSeptemberDecember model implementation McGill-side storage structure analysis tool construction visualization design web interface construction real time modelling completed in progress planned

Case Study: (30 March 03)

Dynamic Tropopause

Coupling Index

Radar Imagery 0814 UTC 31 March

Precipitation Bands

IBL Development YULBTVLake Champlain

Summary Implementation of real time mesoscale NWP is under way at McGill High resolution (3 km) will enhance mesoscale flow and QPF forecasts for the St. Lawrence / NE states region

Data Access Grib files available to ftp servers upon request to: