INTERRUPTED JOURNEYS Routes toward Democracy in Latin America Peter H. Smith Matthew C. Kearney

FOCUS AND FORMAT  Focus: not just on transitions from authoritarianism, but on transitions toward democracy  Format: A typology of political regimes Transitions: overview Characteristics: frequency and durability Empirical pathways Discussion

1. Mapping Regimes (Political Cartography)

Elections and Rights: A Regime Typology _____________ Character of Elections _____________  Citizen Rights __ __None__ __Free not Fair__ __Free and Fair__   Minimal Hard-Line Repressive Dictadura Semidemocracy   Limited Moderate Illiberal/ Restrictive Illiberal  Dictablanda Semidemocracy Democracy  Expansive Liberal/Permissive Liberal  Semidemocracy Democracy

5 Terminology…  Any change from one cell to another = “move” (or “transition”?)  Movement across electoral systems = “change of regime”  Movement within electoral systems = “change within regime” or modification of regime  Democratization = sequence eventuating in political democracy

Coding Criteria  Elections: Personal evaluation  Rights: Freedom House scores on “civil liberties” (1-2, 3-4, 5+)  Mexico as example: : Moderate nondemocracy : Illiberal semidemocracy : Illiberal democracy : Liberal democracy : Illiberal democracy

2. Detecting Transitions (Aerial Photography)

Elections and Democracy

Distinguishing Democracies

3. Identifying Characteristics (Regime Anatomy)

Table 2. Frequency of Regimes (country-years)  _%_ Hard-Line Nondemocracy 11.4 Moderate Nondemocracy 7.6 Repressive Semidemocracy 3.9 Illiberal Semidemocracy 12.7 Liberal Semidemocracy 1.0 Illiberal Democracy 40.1 Liberal Democracy 23.3

Figure 3. Durability

Table 3. Stability and Instability  (a) (b) (c) (d)  Country-years ExitsInstability Stability  _____ N ____ _ n _ _ (b/a) _(1 – b/a)  Nondemocracy:   Hard-Line  Moderate  Semidemocracy:  Repressive  Illiberal  Liberal  Democracy:  Illiberal  Liberal

4. Tracing Pathways (Terrestrial Observation )

15

16 Interpreting the Data .033 = minimal criterion for inclusion = 1 transition every 30 country-years .050 = 1 transition every 20 country- years .010 = 1 transition every 10 country- years

17

18 Table 4. Routes toward Liberal Democracy  a. Direct from Nondemocracy:  Ecuador  Uruguay  b. Via Illiberal Democracy:  Argentina ( )  Chile  c. Via Semidemocracy & Illiberal Democracy:  Brazil  Mexico ( )  Panama ( )

19 Table 5. Routes toward Illiberal Democracy  a. Direct from Nondemocracy:  Bolivia  Ecuador ( )  Haiti ( ) Peru ( )  b. Via Semidemocracy:  El Salvador  Guatemala  Honduras  Nicaragua  Paraguay  Peru ( )

Discussion  Complexity of stepwise transitions  Authoritarian bargains and pacts  Stopping points  Illiberal democracy > Semidemocracy  Conditions of illiberal-to-liberal transitions  Reservoirs of collective memory  Predictability and confidence-building