A Study of Cool Season Tornadoes in the Southeast United States Alicia C. Wasula and Lance F. Bosart University at Albany/SUNY and Russell Schneider, Steven.

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Presentation transcript:

A Study of Cool Season Tornadoes in the Southeast United States Alicia C. Wasula and Lance F. Bosart University at Albany/SUNY and Russell Schneider, Steven J. Weiss, and Robert H. Johns Storm Prediction Center

Motivation Understand physical mechanisms behind cool season (November – March) tornado occurrence in the Southeast U.S. Understand role of mesoscale features in modifying large-scale environment to enhance or inhibit tornado development

Number >=F2 Tornadoes Number Cool Season >=F2 Tornadoes FL CO AP MRMR OZ Cool Season = November-March

Percent Tornadoes (>=F2) by Month Percent Tornadoes (>=F2) by Hour (UTC)

COMPOSITE TORNADO EVENT UTC (n=393, Tornado point = 32 N, 90 W) 500 hPa heights (solid, dam), vorticity (dashed, x s -1 ), vort. advection (shaded, x s -2 ) 200 hPa heights (solid, dam), isotachs (shaded, m s -1 )

COMPOSITE TORNADO EVENT UTC (n=393, Tornado point = 32 N, 90 W) 850 hPa heights (solid, m), temperature (dashed, °C), temp. advection (shaded, x °C s -1 ) 1000 hPa heights (solid, m), hPa thck (dashed, dam), 700 hPa relative humidity (%)

700 hPa heights (solid, m), vertical motion (dashed and shaded, x hPa s -1 ), hPa lapse rate (dashed°C), 850 hPa  e (shaded, K), 850 hPa winds COMPOSITE TORNADO EVENT UTC (n=393, Tornado point = 32 N, 90 W)

Blue = Wind > 25.7 m s -1 Green = Hail > 1.91 cm Red = Tornado SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS: February Tornadoes 3 F3 42 Fatalities 260 Injuries

22 February UTC AVN Analysis SFC 850 hPa 500 hPa 200 hPa

22 February UTC AVN Analysis SFC 850 hPa 500 hPa 200 hPa

23 February UTC AVN Analysis SFC 850 hPa 500 hPa 200 hPa

CAPE = 2891 J/kg LI = -9 C LCL = 962 hPa Tampa Bay (TBW) Sounding and Hodograph 23 February UTC U (m s -1 ) V (m s -1 )

22/1815 UTC IR Satellite

22/2115 UTC IR Satellite 22/2345 UTC IR Satellite 23/0015 UTC IR Satellite

23/0015 UTC 22/2255 UTC 23/0100 UTC BREF Mosaic Surface Temp. (°C) and contours

23/0315 UTC 23/0145 UTC 23/0200 UTC BREF Mosaic Surface Temp. (°C) and contours

23/0530 UTC 23/0300 UTC BREF Mosaic Surface Temp. (°C) and contours

23/0400 UTC BREF Mosaic Surface Temp. (°C) and contours

23/0500 UTC BREF Mosaic Surface Temp. (°C) and contours

23/0600 UTC BREF Mosaic Surface Temp. (°C) and contours

SST’ > 0 SST’<0 LAND

Surface Frontogenesis (°C 100 km -1 3 h -1 ) 23/ 0000 UTC 23/ 0600 UTC 23/ 0200 UTC 23/ 0400 UTC

Surface Trajectories Ending 23/0400 UTC End point north of boundary End point south of boundary

Surface Vorticity (x s -1 ) 23/ 0000 UTC 23/ 0600 UTC 23/ 0200 UTC 23/ 0400 UTC

Case study fits with composite results on synoptic scale Convection reorganized into line of tornadic supercells after landfall Intensity of squall line related to Gulf SST anomalies Strong frontogenesis maintained east-west baroclinic zone and enhance upward motion in warm air across central Florida Baroclinic zone maintained strength as surface air traversed over anomalously warm (cold) SST anomalies to south (north) Increase in ambient surface absolute vorticity on FL peninsula is associated with evolution of line into supercells Conclusions

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