1 Turkey : Economic Outlook December 22, 2008. 2 YoY GDP Growth Rate Source: Turkstat, YKB Research.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Turkey : Economic Outlook December 22, 2008

2 YoY GDP Growth Rate Source: Turkstat, YKB Research

3 ”Effective Days Adjusted” GDP YoY Growth Rate Source: Turkstat, YKB Research

4 Industrial Production Index versus Total Industry in GDP Source: YKB Research

5 Expenditures – Contributions to Growth Source: Turkstat, YKB Research

6 Private Expenditures - YoY Growth Rates Source: Turkstat, YKB Research

7 Public Expenditures - YoY Growth Rates Source: Turkstat, YKB Research

8 Domestic & External Demand’s Contributions Source: Turkstat, YKB Research

9 Production- YoY Growth Rates Source: Turkstat, YKB Research

10 Production- Sector Contributions % Source: Turkstat, YKB Research

11 Production- Service Sector’s Components’ YoY Growth Rates Source: Turkstat, YKB Research

12 Production- Service Sector’s Component’s Contributions Source: Turkstat, YKB Research

13 Industry/Agriculture Performance-Conditional 2008 GDP Growth Rate Source: YKB Research

14 Medium Term GDP Growth* For details please see Occasional Macro Note: “A Forecasting Exercise on Turkey’s Medium Term GDP Growth”- Nov 17, 2008.

15 Consumer Credit Volume (*) (*)Weekly % change of 4W moving average Source: Central Bank of Turkey, YKB Research

16 Consumer Credit Volume (*) (*)Weekly % change of 8W moving average Source: Central Bank of Turkey, YKB Research

17 Commercial &Consumer Credit Volume (*) (*)Weekly % change of 6W moving average Source: Central Bank of Turkey, YKB Research

18 Industrial Production (*) (*) Y-on-Y growth % Source: Turkstat

19 Industrial Production Source: Turkstat, YKB Research

20 Industrial Production- Days Adjusted Source: Turkstat, YKB Research

21 Current Account vs. Financing

22 Exports vs. Imports

23 Year end Growth Expectations

24 Productivity vs. Investment

25 Agriculture

26 Industry

27 Services

28 Workforce

29 Inflation Expectations Source: CBRT

30 Special CPI (A) Source: Turkstat

31 Special CPI (B) Source: Turkstat

32 Special CPI (C) Source: Turkstat

33 Special CPI (D) Source: Turkstat

34 Special CPI (E) Source: Turkstat

35 Special CPI (F) Source: Turkstat

36 Special CPI (G) Source: Turkstat

37 Special CPI (H) Source: Turkstat

38 SPECIAL CPI (I) Source: Turkstat