Monthly Analysis of Teal Ring- Recovery Data Diana Cole, Takis Besbeas, and Byron Morgan.

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Presentation transcript:

Monthly Analysis of Teal Ring- Recovery Data Diana Cole, Takis Besbeas, and Byron Morgan

Introduction Interested in modelling survival of Teal (Anas Crecca) Ring-Recovery Data available Standard analysis would be biased because –Teal are born in April –Ringing Year starts in August –Ringed in November, December or January

Standard Model (Annual / Annual)  1 – first year survival probability (annual survival)  a – adult survival probability (annual survival) – reporting probability j iNo. ringed

Simulation Simulated data with 40 years of ringing and recovery, 200 animals ringed each year  1 = 0.3  a = 0.5 = 0.2 m b month animal born (in previous year) m r month animal ringed Parameters estimated using the standard yearly model. Simulation repeated 100 times.

Simulation Standard Model (Annual / Annual Model) 11 aa True Value mbmb mrmr meanbiasstdmeanbiasstdmeanbiasstd 13 (Aug)1 (Aug) (Jul)1 (Aug) (Apr)5 (Dec)

Annual / Monthly Model  1,m – 1 st y. monthly survival probability  1,m 12 =  1  a,m – adult monthly survival probability  a,m 12 =  a – reporting probability model assumes ringed in December j iNo. ringed

Simulation m b = 9 (Apr), m r = 5 (Dec) 11 aa Model meanbiasstdmeanbiasstdmeanbiasstd annual / annual annual / monthly

Simulation m b = 9, m r = 4 (52%), 5 (31%), 6 (17%) 11 aa Model meanbiasstdmeanbiasstdmeanbiasstd annual / annual annual / monthly

Monthly / Monthly Model Bird i, ringed in year y r, recovered in year y c, born in month m b = 9, ringed in month m r, recovered in month m c has probability Index (i)Ringyr (y r )Ringmo (m r )Recyr (y c )Recmo (m c )

Simulation m b = 9, m r = 4 (50%), 5 (23%), 6 (17%) 11 aa Model meanbiasstdmeanbiasstdmeanbiasstd annual / annual annual / monthly monthly / monthly

Results model 11 aa annual/annual0.46 (0.037)0.55 (0.045)0.10 (0.004) annual/monthly0.18 (0.029)0.55 (0.045)0.10 (0.004) monthly/monthly0.11 (0.015)0.59 (0.046)0.10 (0.004)

Conclusion and Further Work If birds are not ringed soon after birth and / or the ringing year does not start when the birds are ringed, there will be bias in estimating first year survival. A monthly structure will remove this bias Survival does not have to be the same each month – e.g. lower survival in winter Teal data also include birds ringed as adults. The sex of the bird is known. Most of the returns were hunted (2% not hunted). Also census data on Teal. Plan to include this as part of an integrated statistical analysis.