Dynamic Energy Systems Analysis for the Assessment of New Energy Technologies Annual Meeting of the International Energy Workshop EMF - IEA (ETSAP) - IIASA June 2004, Paris, France Dr.-Ing. Stephan Ramesohl Dr.-Ing. Manfred Fischedick Wuppertal Institute for Climate Environment Energy Research Group "Future Energy and Transport Structures"

June 2004 How to achieve the long-term GHG reduction path? GHG emissions (energy related only) in [Mio. t CO 2eq ] DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

June 2004 The historic window of opportunity: up to MW of electricity generation to be replaced DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

June 2004 Scenario results for electricity generation A strong role for CHP and renewables DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

June 2004 Scenario results for heat supply Efficiency and renewables limit the potential for CHP DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

June 2004 Prospects for stationary fuel cells Industry and local heat systems are key areas for FC installed capacity (MW el ) REF NC REF NC REF NC REF NC REF NC industry FC heating systems (local) district heat DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

June 2004 Beating the dynamic benchmark: increasing challenges for fuel cells in RES systems

June 2004 There is a strong competition for the allocation of RES The case of biomass DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

June 2004 Enforcing biofuel strategies increase system costs Giving priority to stationary biomass uses is more efficient DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004 difference costs Mio. EUR/a EU biofuel target

June 2004 Contraints in biomass availability triggers introduction of hydrogen - either for mobile or stationary applications DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004

June 2004 Energy efficiency is the key to a considerable share of alternative motor fuels in the future DLR, Ifeu, WI 2004 share of final energy final energy (PJ) reference casescenario NC1

June 2004 The synopsis of long-term scenarios reveals close relation between H 2 and an ambitious climate policy contribution of H 2 to GHG reductions in % long-term reduction of GHG compared to 1990

June 2004 The prospects of H 2 : assumptions on the market intro- duction of H 2 cars in Germany (private passenger cars) forced introduction from 2010 to 100% in 2035 streched introduction from 2010 to 100% in 2050 moderate introduction from 2010 to 50% in 2050 Ramesohl et al. 2003

June 2004 The demand for RES electricity for hydrogen electrolysis (private passenger cars) at trend conditions unrealistic demand for RES electricity in the case of forced/streched introduction additional demand for LH 2 paths due to liquefaction conversion losses feasible paths combine moderate introduction (50%) in 2050 with a generation mix (MSR + electrolysis) and/or high efficient cars ("High- Savings") Ramesohl et al. 2003

June 2004 Demand for wind power capacity in addition to the planned growth of RES electricity German power park 2002 Wind capacity 2002 Assumption: 2000 full load h/a Ramesohl et al. 2003

June 2004 Assessment of RES technology options requires a holistic analysis of interdependencies within the energy system Ramesohl et al. 2003

June 2004 A partial view on benefits of hydrogen may lead to misguided results - an energy system's perspective is needed Ramesohl et al. 2003

June 2004 Emissions of hydrogen paths from a partial perspective on the allocation of RES electricity Ramesohl et al. 2003

June 2004 Emissions of hydrogen paths from a holistic perspective on the allocation of RES electrcity Ramesohl et al. 2003

June 2004 Conclusions from a systems analysis for Germany  A complete analysis of sustainable energy systems requires the holistic assessment of interactions between stationary and mobile applications  Ecological constraints reduce the domestic potential esp. for biomass and wind  Energy efficiency and renewables limit the prospects of stationary fuel cells. However, a significant potential still remains if infrastructures (local heat systems) are available => FC technology needs to be embedded into integrated concepts  For decades, stationary use of biomass resources and renewable electricity remains superior to mobile applications both in terms of GHG emissions and costs  Before 2050, there is hardly any realistic, efficient and ecologically benign pathway to large shares of more than 50% H 2 in road transport  The priority task in transport is to reduce road transport volumes and specific energy consumption drastically - alternative fuels policies are not an alternative to energy efficiency but strongly depend on prior reduction achievements

June 2004 Roadmap to a renewable energy system as the foundation of a sustainable hydrogen economy until 2010"Entry phase" backed by energy policy through target setting for RES share and related support policies "Stabilisation" of RES growth and gradual withdrawal of policy support Full "Consolidation" of new RES technologies and start of Trans-European exchange of RES energy growing "Dominance" of RES in all end-use sectors and start of significant use of hydrogen beyond 2050ongoing "Relief of fossil energy" by RES and large- scale establishment of hydrogen from RES

Thank you for your attention Dr.-Ing. Stephan Ramesohl Research Group "Future Energy and Transport Structures" Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy PO Box , D Wuppertal Tel (-198 Fax),