Human Dimensions Overview A Summary of CIG Work, Ed Miles December 2, 2004

Rationale: Most human behavior occurs in the context of institutions and, to a large extent, is determined by them. Large-scale changes in human behavior require institutional changes as well.

Research Design, Determine climate impacts on the PNW, by characterizing: the determinants and characteristics of regional climate variability and climate change (CV/CC), and the regional consequences for natural and human systems; Understand the actual and potential response capabilities of human institutions to CV/CC, esp. utilization of climate forecasts; Identify and evaluate alternative adaptive policy choices; Improve communications between climate diagnosticians and the (potential) users of climate forecasts.

Research Design, : Evaluating Societal Response Capacity Evaluating actual & potential societal response capacity requires understanding: Institutional arrangements for managing patterns of use, i.e., legal frameworks, ownership and use rights, authority relations, right to manage Social organization of resource management systems, their relative capabilities, patterns of interaction and information flow Current/potential utility of climate information for natural resource managers – depends on decision context and sensitivity/vulnerability

Research Design, : Evaluating Societal Response Capacity Societal response capacity of stakeholder community evaluated: 1995 focus on water resources & coastal zone; 1996-’97 on fisheries and forests Interviews/Surveys 1996/1997, 2003 Callahan, 1997; Callahan, Miles, & Fluharty, 1999; Callahan & Miles in Chap. 6, Rhythms…; Fluharty in Chap. 7; Canning,Field, Hershman, & Johnson in Chap. 9; & Miles, Callahan, & Fluharty in Chap. 10 Deliberate attempts at integrating research results undertaken annually at 3 year end meetings,

Major Investment in Hum. Dim. Work: NASA Grant Sensitivity of coastal management to CV (collaboration with OSU) Canning, Hershman, & Johnson, Chap. 9, Rhythms… Initial assessment of climate forecasts & mgmt. of fisheries, water, & forests (Miles, Fluharty, Gray) Chaps 6, 7, 8 of Rhythms… Detailed assessment of the impacts of and responses to drought for Yakima Valley irrigated agriculture & Seattle municipal & industrial water supply (Gray) Chaps 6, 10 of Rhythms… Valuation of medium -term climate forecasts for fisheries & hydropower (Huppert & Kaje) Kaje 1998; Hamlet et al. 2002; Chap. 10 Rhythms…

WA Dept of Ecology prodding to focus the coastal zone work on coastal hazards. Seeking assistance in response to intense erosion problems and high conflict in Ocean Shores and Willapa Bay, WA and erosion “hotspots” down to Tillamook, OR. Evaluating economic, fiscal, & policy alternatives for addressing hazards due to CV & CC, using NASA funding. (Sub-contracts let to Wellman, Lund - Battelle Northwest; Good, RA – OSU). Change of Directors at NASA resulted in termination of funding. Work discontinued in 1999.

: Shortcomings in Institutional Design; Planning, Adaptation, & Mitigation Strategies Winter snowpack & impacts on the regional hydrology are the most important determinants of climate impacts across the four sectors of concern in the PNW. Major failures in institutional design are inability at regional space scale to optimize water supply of Columbia River in face of declining supply relative to demand & significant additional shortfall in supply predicted as result of CC. No policies in place to respond to latter. Risk assessment & management not systematically built in to policy development at any gov’t. level.

Building Capacity via Climate Forecasts? Economic value of climate forecasts highly variable, e.g., low for fisheries but potentially quite high for hydropower. Climate forecasts not seen to be useful by clear majority of managers in all 4 sectors. Much greater specificity is required, along with significant increase in skill. Forecasts gain in utility only if married with significant amount of information, re: impacts. Target impacts info. to different categories of mgmt. responsibilities. Where human activities dwarf the climate signal, managers reluctant to invest much time/resources to understand role of climate, viz., coastal & forest managers--but exceptions for coastal emergency response & forest fire officials.

: Two New Initiatives In response to challenge by some managers to speak to their watershed-level concerns, Initiate design & development of regional physical template to facilitate integrated physical, biological, social policy analysis at multiple spatial scales (Snover lead). Began first watershed level experiment in the Snake River –hydrological/economic modeling exercise focused on water markets (recruited two economists from Idaho, Slaughter & Reading).

Continued focus on watershed-level concerns Study to develop vulnerability indicators for watershed planning, given CV & CC. Focus on Water Resource Inventory Areas of WA. (Whitely Binder) Paper in review at JAWRA. Proposed detailed identification & evaluation of adaptive mgmt. strategies in context of sub-regional governance. 1. Developed the watershed mgmt. focus as major theme for the coastal zone sub-group (Miles & Canning, with assistance of RA (Engoltz)). 2. Exploratory work on watershed planning efforts in Skagit River & Tillamook Bay watersheds (Morlock, cost-shared with SMA). 3. Assessing vulnerability & resilience of Critical Areas Ordinances (CAOs), as defined in Washington Growth Management Act, to CV, CC and suite of multiple stresses (Trask).

Re-surveyed managers in all sectors, re: use of forecasts and linking climate to management (Miles, Fluharty, Andersen, Petras). Results to be reported in Miles’s final synthesis presentation. Andersen et al (coastal sector); Andersen et al. (overview) to be submitted to JAWRA. With additional funding, would expand HD work to include economic analyses of the potential costs of CV & CC, using the physical template.

Current and ongoing foci Develop the physical template Coastal watershed management Water resources management Snake Basin water markets and other institutions Forestry management Fisheries management Ongoing stakeholder surveys Continued focus on regional vulnerability and resilience (adaptation) in the face of multiple stresses, including CV and CC Watershed (WRIA) vulnerability assessments