Spatio-temporal Stochastic Simulation of Connectivity Matrices from Lagrangian Ocean Models.

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Presentation transcript:

Spatio-temporal Stochastic Simulation of Connectivity Matrices from Lagrangian Ocean Models

The Raw Material: Time series of simulated daily Kij Matrices i

Approach

Logit Transformation

Remove Temporal Trend

Remove Spatial Trend

Residuals

h (lag distance, km) h (lag distance, days) VARIOGRAMS ON PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF SETTLEMENT (INDICATOR VARIABLE, 0/1) Along-Rows (t, i, i)  (t, i, i+h) correlation of settlement at adjacent destinations from same source Time (t,i,j)  (t+h,i,j) correlation of settlement at time t in patch (i,j) with settlement at time t+h in same patch Down-Columns (t, j, j)  (t, j+h, j) correlation of settlement from adjacent sources to the same destination

γ(h) h (lag distance, km) h (lag distance, days) VARIOGRAMS ON MAGNITUDE OF SETTLEMENT AT NON-ZERO LOCATIONS Along-Rows (t, i, i)  (t, i, i+h) correlation of settlement at adjacent destinations from same source Time (t,i,j)  (t+h,i,j) correlation of settlement at time t in patch (i,j) with settlement at time t+h in same patch Down-Columns (t, j, j)  (t, j+h, j) correlation of settlement from adjacent sources to the same destination

SGEMS ….4D simulation…yay

Predicting Alongshore Patterns from Coastal Topgraphy

‘Coastal Anomaly’ Broitman and Kinlan 2006 MEPS, In press

Smoothing Scale=1000 km COASTAL STRUCTURE

Smoothing Scale=50 km COASTAL STRUCTURE

S.Africa WNA Chile

What scale of coastal features matter to the process you’re interested in? Correlation between variable of interest and topographic index at each smoothing scale

myt bal cht Smoothing scale (km) for topo index Correlation coefficient

myt bal cht alongshore lag (km) (negative lags are poleward) Correlation coefficient

myt bal cht The “Topographic Response Function” Correlation coefficient Alongshore Lag (km) – positive lags poleward – sorry! Smoothing scale (km) for topo index

alongshore lag (km) Amplitude (  ) Mytilus spp Filter length (km) PC amplitude PC1 PC2 PC3

alongshore lag (km) Amplitude (  ) Balanus glandula Filter length (km) PC amplitude PC1 PC2 PC3

alongshore lag (km) Amplitude (  ) Chthamalus spp Filter length (km) PC amplitude PC1 PC2 PC3

Myt (74%)Bal (85%)Cht (69%)

45%; ns 87%; *** Balanus predicted from Mytilus Chthamalus predicted from Mytilus

Mytilus spp

Balanus

Chthamalus

regressing PeruRecTx and topography Var Explained = Model significance = * COAST * Topo(521,-238) * Topo(753,15) * Topo(58,156) * Topo(521,-187) * Topo(753,-186) * Topo(58,103)

regressing SemiRecTx and topography Var Explained = Model significance = * COAST * Topo(522,-224) * Topo(837,-217) * Topo(62,-233) * Topo(522,-65) * Topo(837,-114) * Topo(62,235)

regressing JhelRecTx and topography Var Explained = Model significance = * COAST * Topo(519,-237) * Topo(253,22) * Topo(44,102) * Topo(519,196) * Topo(253,-187) * Topo(44,-175)

A Global, Daily, Sub-Kilometer-Scale Index of Wind-Driven Dynamics in Nearshore Ecosystems

JPL Model Nowcast – 1km wind field

Kelp Dynamics at the California Channel Islands Responses to Ocean Climate, Trophic Structure, and Management

Overall Protection of Kelp Habitats Based on Kelp MapBased on Kelp Map Area of Kelp in MPA’s in versus Baseline Fraction of Kelp Habitat in MPAs 11.0% 5.56 km 2 of km % 5.56 km 2 of km % 4.82 km 2 of km 2

Kelp Canopy at San Miguel Island

Kelp Canopy at Santa Rosa Island

Kelp Canopy at Santa Cruz Island

Kelp Canopy at Anacapa Island

Kelp Canopy at Santa Barbara Island

For Comparison: San Nicolas Island

For Comparison: Campus Point (Mainland)

Before ( )Before ( )After ( ) Average Kelp Canopy Biomass (US tons) Change in Canopy Area Over Time: All So Cal Islands

Change in Canopy Area Over Time: CINMS vs. Other Islands Before ( )Before ( )After ( ) Average Kelp Canopy Biomass (US tons) Before ( )Before ( )After ( ) CINMSSan Nicolas, Clemente, Catalina

Kelp Biomass at Islands

Date of Survey Kelp Canopy Biomass (US Tons) Kelp Biomass – CINMS Region

CINMS Region Other Islands

Patterns Different from Mainland ENSO Index -(SOI) Islands Mainland

CINMS Region MBNMS Region ( ) Figure 4

Kelp forest state De-forested state From Behrens and Lafferty 2004; based on data from Kelp Forest Monitoring Project Indirect Effects of Fishing on Kelp Forests?

Interesting Pattern at Anacapa Island MCA established

F^3 Needs?