SERCC and DROUGHT Peter J Robinson NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill.

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Presentation transcript:

SERCC and DROUGHT Peter J Robinson NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill

SERCC Drought Activities Drought Monitoring –Mainly synthesis and coordination Drought Definition –Long-term planning Drought Impacts –Mainly Health-Related

Drought Monitoring Home page screen shot

Collaborations for Monitoring SERCC Monthly climate synthesis report to NOAA Response to regional drought questions Strong SC programs in region –Active before SERCC established at UNC SECC –Agriculture/water concerns central Carolina’s RISA –Tool development & evaluation

Drought Definition & Impacts What is “drought” in a changing climate? Multiple Definitions –CGEO-USGEO Bilateral Coordination Drought Definition and Indices Study Multiple Impacts –Urban Planning –Public Health

Drought: Climatological View

Western NC Precipitation Trends

Asheville Stream-gauge record

Future Conditions? Projected changes in annual runoff (hatching = confidence; blank = no confidence) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009: p. 45

NC Climate Divisions: PDSI < 3

Changing Climate – and Perceptions? Current : Wet Climate – Drought Events Future?: Dry Climate – Wet Spells

Future southern Appalachians?

Appropriate preparation needed!

Drought Impacts: Urban Planning Energy efficient Drought resistant Flood proof Old styles? New knowledge? Individual/collective designs

Alternative energy  Urban Design

Good Design  Water Problems

Good Design: Climate Sensitive

Drought Impacts: Public Health (1) Water Related: Quantity: nutrition, hygiene, recreation physical & mental stress Quality: water borne diseases toxin & pathogen concentrations

Drought Impacts: Public Health (2) Atmosphere Related Composition – Dry conditions Dust, aerosols, particulate matter (PM) – Fires Smoke, haze, irritant gases Respiratory Ailments Temperature – Heat stress Building design, energy needs

Climate - Health Links Linked concepts well established –Much medical/health research –Much weather/climate research Little Research/Application level linking SERCC as NOAA focal point NCDC-SERCC-CDC-EPA-NIEHS workshop

Conclusions SERCC not heavily involved in monitoring –Thanks to SCs and others in region Time to consider long-term implications –Focus on planning/health & drought – not exclusive Drought as current “climate focus” –Place in context of whole climate change/variability concern