Project 1 2009. Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing.

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Presentation transcript:

Project

Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing

Prewhitening

Identification of DAWHMAN Histogram Correlogram Unit root Test

Model: Conjecture and Estimation

Estimation excluding last 12 months of data

MorganHansenar(1)ar(4)ma(3)ma(4).289 JeffLeear(3)ma(1)ma(9).291 JuliannShanar(1)ar(3)ar(4)ma(9).287 DanHellingar(1)ar(3)ma(4)ma(9).288 MattMullensar(3)ma(1)ma(3)ma(9).288 ChrisStroudma(1)ma(3)ma(9).288 BrooksAllenar(3)ma(1)ma(3)ma(9).288

Forecast for last 12 months of data

Initial Condition, recoloring

Recolored Within Sample Forecast

Estimation for Full Period

Model Validation Actual, fitted and residual dawhman Correlogram of residual Histogram of residual Serial correlation test

Forecast for Remainder of 2009

Forecast of Month to Month Change

Initial condition

Lessons No single “correct” model, many “correct” Use show command to embellish view of the forecast Estimate at the prewhitened level. Illustrate at the cognitive level, i.e. recolor Value of forecasts: Observing what you do not expect!

As Bernanke Says: “The economy will be slow to recover”