Time-Shifting Kate Roemer Dec. 6, 2004

Introduction Time-shifted viewing –When a broadcast signal is recorded to be viewed at a later time –Changes the broadcast model from synchronous to asynchronous communication –Marks a significant power shift from broadcasters to viewers –Interferes with traditional spot advertising Supervening social necessity –Viewers want to watch television on their own time table Time-shifting technologies –VCR, the past –DVR, the present –VoD, a picture of the future

VCR - diffusion One of the fasted adoption rates in the history of consumer electronics –What drove diffusion? Competition drove prices to near cost Growth of home video industry High points in VCR development history –1950s: Television stations and networks used video tape technology –1963: The Neiman Marcus catalog offered the Ampex VTR (video tape recorder) for a mere $30,000 –1975: Sony introduces Betamax, the first 1/2” tape with one hour recording capability, for $2,300 with a TV –1977: first VHS offering, with 2 hour recording capacity –1988: Sony begins manufacturing VHS VCRs Beta vs. VHS Why did VHS win? –Strong manufacturing partners –Longer recording capacity –Large number of devices and lower cost

VCR – law of suppression The brakes –Prohibitive costs early on –Legal action The “Betamax” case –1976: Universal Studios and Disney sued Sony for contributory copyright infringement –The case bounced through appeals courts with judges ruling both ways –1984: The Supreme court decided in favor of Sony, saying home recording is “fair use” and time-shifting expands public access thus benefiting society

VCR – avoiding advertising Zipping: Fast forwarding through commercials –Inhibits advertising impact –Doesn’t completely eliminate impact Viewers might pay closer attention to zipped ads to avoid zipping into programming Advertisements are archived along with programming when recorded Entertainment industry ignored ad avoidance issues with VCR –Poor usability for time-shifting Blinking 12:00 –Huge success of home video market

The DVR – time-shifting goes digital A super powered VCR –DVR surpasses VCR in usability Simple interface –Interactive program guides –Collaborative filtering No tapes for storage Digital storage opens new options for manipulation Devices and services –ReplayTV –TiVo –Cable and satellite are entering the game with their own DVRs

DVR - diffusion DVR diffusion mimics the VCR –Competition is driving awareness and reducing costs Some cable providers will include a free DVR with digital service –Wide range of available devices Stand alone Integrated with cable or satellite receiver Integrated with DVD burner –Legal action from the entertainment industry

DVR - suppression The brakes –Frequently considered a redundant technology –Hollywood re-raises legal questions brought up in the Betamax case 2001: A group studios sue SonicBlue for copyright infringement –SonicBlue’s ReplayTV allowed peer-to-peer program sharing and automatic commercial block elimination A group of ReplayTV users counter sued Both cases were dropped when SonicBlue declared bankruptcy and DNNA dropped the controversial features when it started distributing ReplayTV units –Possible legislation to prevent zipping Intelectual Property Protection Act currently before Congress

DVR – threat to advertising income Primary purpose of the DVR is time- shifting –More ad avoidance options Zipping 30 second skip Commercial block elimination –Ease of use and more options increases ad avoidance behavior DVRs can benefit advertisers –Offer space for long form advertisements –Sell aggregate data on viewer habits –TiVo will soon be tagging commercials to run billboards during zipping

The next time-shift Video on demand (VoD) –Streaming and non-streaming –High cost VoD fees are in addition to already high cable bills –Limited content available

Time-shifting in the future What will determine the future success of time-shifting? –Financial viability Advertising revenue Subscription income –Demand Possible alternative to cable ala cart –Usability

Questions?