Back in contention? Tory prospects for 2009/10 John Curtice Strathclyde University.

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Presentation transcript:

Back in contention? Tory prospects for 2009/10 John Curtice Strathclyde University

Target to Win If Change in % Lib Dem Con % Lab % Lead

Target to be Biggest If Change in % Lib Dem Con % Lab % Lead

Reasons for Bias zLab seats (still) smaller zLower turnout in Lab seats zTory vote too inefficiently (i.e. evenly) spread

The Battle with Blair

Brown Bounces

Still Stuck in Scotland

Drift to the Right

Changing T&S Priorities

Personal Popularity

How Cameron Compares

Economic Competence

Conclusion zTories face a tall order zHave only briefly been doing well enough to win zClimate more favourable - but is it stable and can it be exploited? zCameron reasonably popular - but still uncertainty about party’s competence?