1 Uncertainty, Lags, Nonlinearity and Feedbacks: New Terms for a New Millennium We must transition out of our 19 th century view of Technology as basic engineering works and into a new view of Technology as an agent which changes material and energy flows within the earth. Then we must develop an appropriate management plan in the wake of increasing unknown responses. Are we Brave Enough to do this?

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3 We need to shift from seeing the world as composed mainly of MACHINES (the industrial revolution) to seeing it as composed mainly of COMPLEX SYSTEMS (chaos introduced by Humans)

4 Whereas MACHINES can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully understood (they are no more than the sum of their parts)can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully understood (they are no more than the sum of their parts) exhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of behaviorexhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of behavior show proportionality of cause and effect, and (i.e. they are linear systems)show proportionality of cause and effect, and (i.e. they are linear systems) can be managed because their behavior predictable...can be managed because their behavior predictable...

5 COMPLEX SYTEMS are more than the sum of their parts (they have emergent properties)are more than the sum of their parts (they have emergent properties) can flip from one pattern of behavior to another (they have multiple equilibriums)can flip from one pattern of behavior to another (they have multiple equilibriums) show disproportionally of cause and effect (their behavior is often nonlinear, because of feedbacks and synergies), andshow disproportionally of cause and effect (their behavior is often nonlinear, because of feedbacks and synergies), and cannot be easily managed because their behavior is often unpredictable.cannot be easily managed because their behavior is often unpredictable.

We’re moving from a world of RISK to a world of UNCERTAINTY (unknown unknowns)

So, we must move from “management” to Complex Adaptation Climate Change Climate Disruption Climate Volatility

Battisti and Naylor, “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.” Science (9 January 2009):

Battisti and Naylor, “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.” Science (9 January 2009):

Statistical Outcomes IPCC 2007

New Fields of Study Needed to Help With Management

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14 LAGS Between emission and climate responseBetween emission and climate response Between cuts to emissions and reduction of warmingBetween cuts to emissions and reduction of warming Between policy decision to change energy infrastructure and completion of this changeBetween policy decision to change energy infrastructure and completion of this change

“ [We show] that to hold climate constant at a given global temperature requires near zero future carbon emissions.... As a consequence, any future anthropogenic emissions will commit the climate system to warming that is essentially irreversible on centennial timescales.” Matthews, H. D., and K. Caldeira (2008), “Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions,” Geophys. Res. Lett.

Hansen, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7 (2007):

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Years before Present Ice Accumulation Rate (meters per year) A Non-Linearity

mK 2 A Non Linearity

Jakobshavn Ice Stream in Greenland Discharge from major Greenland ice streams is accelerating markedly. Source: Prof. Konrad Steffen, Univ. of Colorado

Up to 40 percent decrease in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink over the last 20 years Strengthening of the winds around Antarctica increases exposure of carbon-rich deep waters Strengthening of the winds due to global warming and the ozone hole Declining efficiency of the ocean sink Le Quéré et al. 2007, Science

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Global Air Temperature Increases Increased Greenhouse Absorption Increased Water Vapor In Atmosphere Water vapor positive feedback Increased Carbon Dioxide amounts

More rapid warming at poles Ice-albedo feedback Atmospheric warming Lower reflectivity of ocean surface Melting of ice Increased ocean absorption of sun’s energy radiative positive feedback, fast

Atmospheric warming Increased emissions Decreased efficiency of carbon sinks emissions cycle positive feedback, slow

Atmospheric warming Rotting and burning of organic matter Death of forests Release of CO 2 Accelerated carbon cycle positive feedback, potentially fast

Atmospheric warming Rotting of organic matter Melting of permafrost Release of CH 4 and CO 2 Methane cycle positive feedback, potentially fast